Your Market Beliefs - page 5
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Again, I did not intend to debate this issue. I just wanted to gauge where peoples heads were at. The bad news is most members are not responding to the poll (everyone must be busy testing the newest version of "Won't Make You a Dime V342" EA) . The good news is that everyone who has participated in this discussion has shared some really insightful concepts.
Its a really good thread, and I think that it shows how important it is to get this random v non random issue clear in your own mind. Its also interesting to note peoples comments regarding major improvements in their own performance occuring once they'd resolved this particular issue, regardless of the path they chose.
"chronological sequence" I see...but wait you are not Igor....
What my disrciption of trend is beside the point and off-topic (as I said I was afraid for that this would happen)
A 100% mathematical proof is EA's. There are thousands of them. They are tools that try to track the market movements.
Not 1 EA with 1 set of parameters can show a hitrate of more then 50 % and with a S/L that is equal or less then the T/P and that on 10 different markets.
If markets are not random then a big majority of the EA's should show the opposite. Hitrates well over 50% and with S/L'es that are smaller then the T/P. If people don't understand this and don't see that as 100% proof then I rest my case.
And as said that has nothing to do with beeing profitable or not. For all the same there are many EA that are extreem profitable but that is because of the MM that they use.
I rest my case because as I have said in an earlier posting, this topic will end up in a some sort of religious discussion like if God exists yes or not.
I am a person that is for science or for mathematical proof or for tests that can be repeated all the time without any doubt.
I am not for the paranormal nor religion or what people feel or believe or have red somewhere based on assumptions.
Most important is that if one can proof it is random or not random it want make a pip difference in the profit that you and me will make today.
Friendly regards...iGoR
Its a really good thread, and I think that it shows how important it is to get this random v non random issue clear in your own mind. Its also interesting to note peoples comments regarding major improvements in their own performance occuring once they'd resolved this particular issue, regardless of the path they chose.
Is it coinsidence or not ?....but this topic is completely in line with the path I descided to follow 3 weeks ago.
Nearly 13 years I have been chasing the price action or trying to capture the market action (even dow that I knew that the markets were random).
Suddenly I realized that I should stop doing that and forget everything I knew and concentrate 100% on the radomness of the markets. Concentrate on making a system that is based on that 1 single fact.
My trading life has completely changed over the last 3 weeks.
My system is no longer under the influence of trend or consolidation (where all my other systems that I ever build, were sufering from).
A new world has opend and it is a world I will be part off for the rest of my trading life.
Proof of this is that for the first time I have a system that works beautifull on every market without changing anything to the system or the settings or the parameters ( because all these markets have one element in common...randomness
)
regards...iGoR
Igor,
I will quote the opening post here for your benefit:
We all have a different view on the way we perceive the market. There are an infinite number of ways one could go about defining what the market actually is, does, or means.
What I'm interested in finding out is how many of us (based on personal perspective) believe that the market is random, systematic, or a combination of both. Please take a vote in the poll, and leave an insightful comment as you see fit.
Tootles,
MMNow tell me where the discussion has strayed? Just because you offer a bold statement that "not any EA can improve odds by more then 50%" is just you making the statement then using it as fact.
ES
For example:
I have a support and resistance EA at the moment that I have been working hard on. I even have gone into the code and altered little cosmetic things...but I digress..
Anyways...It seems to be working....overall...
There are "Random moments" that it does not work, in which I am trying to identify without success.
But at certain times more then other times... support and resistance can be relied upon, thus removing all doubt from my beliefs that the market is random. But I never have had that stuggle because I know that the very existence of trend erases any possibility that the market is 100% random.
Congrats on your discovery Igor...I hope you stay consistently profitable for years to come...I am still at the primitive Randomly profitable stage and have not evolved ....hehe
ES
This belief thread is a good one Mr Marketz and Thank you for the opportunity to post in it (I voted in your poll).
I would hate to think that newdigital spends countless hours and years updating the Elite Section here in Forex-tsd if he believes the retail spot forex market were random movements seeking out winners and losers. There is even a lead Cow in a herd...☺
newdigital has brought us Rent-a-signal in which there is your proof of EA's (there is some manual trading in there too) that can produce a profit. They are building a track record as we speak..(I am beta testing in there as a seller of free signals and this is not open yet to the public) https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/178803
Now I do not know many people that spend the amount of hours in this community and in trading that ND does (he does not seem to sleep)...and I do not think it is all in vain. His message does not seem to be that the Market is Random...or that EA's do not work....or that he loses money in Forex....
ES
P.S. Just because a few novice traders have given up in desparation folks or are in denial and blame it on randomness...do not let that stray you...look at the poll here....are these the blind leading the Blind?...Have you had your revelation today ☺?
Igor,
I will quote the opening post here for your benefit:
Now tell me where the discussion has strayed? Just because you offer a bold statement that "not any EA can improve odds by more then 50%" is just you making the statement then using it as fact.
ESIf 15000 people for 5 years would sit in the pond behind my house with there sifts searching for gold and after 5 years no one would have found 1 grain of gold, I will say that for me it is 100% clear that there is no gold in that pond. If you see that as a bold statement then that is up to you.
An EA is a device a tool. And if thousands of tools over years of time can not show any odds more then 50% to predict the markets then if that is for you no proof but you would even call it a BOLD statment to conclude one can not predict the markets then that is again up to you....
As they say in my country whats the use of a stick and glasses if the blind man does not want to see...
Has it occurred to you that there are traders that do not sit in your pond that would make statements to support what they have found and may not neccessarily agree with you...Your 5 year personal quest is commendable, but realize it is only a fact FOR YOU. But in all due respect..congrats on your discovery that YOU made for yourself and that you are now profitable in any market. I could not make that statement if it were not so, so I will need to believe you Igor....but wow...are you God? Should I notify Bill Gates that you are coming to The Recently Socialized States of America?
The market is not Random
It is possible to be consistently profitable
and there are traders that have done it and that are doing it, in far away unknown ponds and lakes (there are some random rivers and creeks too).
ES
P.S. I am at a loss to prove it with traders names or to produce EA's that can substantiate my belief (so I guess it is a belief). But I can prove the market is not random and have done so publically 5 years ago in Elite Trader. The market can be moved...if it were random this would not be so...also trends would not exist if this randomness were so.
If 15000 people for 5 years would sit in the pond behind my house with there sifts searching for gold and after 5 years no one would have found 1 grain of gold, I will say that for me it is 100% clear that there is no gold in that pond. If you see that as a bold statement then that is up to you.
An EA is a device a tool. And if thousands of tools can not show any odds more then 50% to predict the markets then if that is for you no proof but you would even call it a BOLD statment to conclude one can not predict the markets then that is again up to you....
As they say in my country whats the use of a stick and glasses if the blind man does not want to see...We have not yet begun to discuss the role that Fundementals play in Retail Spot forex.
What is your belief? (all of you not just Igor)
ES
I am going to make a preliminary "bold" statement that I have recently discovered, but this is not a hypothesis as it is far too early.
The Forex market does not trade the "all-telling" and reliable support and resistance, the same way two hours before the London open and in that session, as it does in the North American session.
But by combining theses two world sessions, can explain to me the appearance of randomness, when I have noticed some patterns that allow me to make the statement above.
ES
P.S. In otherwords you can break the belief of randomness up into "Slices of Time" to reveal underlying fundemental and technical movements.