The Legend of The Gambler - page 6
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It's Friday, and all quiet on the Western Front.
Getting some downtime this weekend to get my demo testing back in order. I'm going to take down all of my FXDD demo accounts because I'm not really happy with their (broker's demo server) performance.
Probably not going to trade again until next Wednesday at the earliest. Hoping to sit back until I can get in on a big trend to ride on.
On the Euro, we are sitting right on the consolidation base at low 1.2's as was seen in 2006. The Pound is taking a cliff dive off the face of the Earth, I have no idea where it is going. The Swissie is going to hit heavy resistance at 1.20 formed back in 2006/2007. This seems like the most tradeable and safe bet to go with at the moment (selling the 1.20 resistance). I don't even bother with Yen right now, that carry trade unwinding has a mind of its own. The divergence between the Euro and Pound is intriguing, it's the reason why my demo EURGBP trades are doing so good. I have no idea why the dramatic discrepancy in price action, but eventually, I know Pound will need to gain against the Euro because of their proximity and economy. And how do I capitalize on that? That's the $$$ question.
If the Swissie doesn't reject the 1.20 very hard, it will enter into heavy resistance range territory of 1.22 to 1.28.
I pulled up a weekly chart on USDCHF, and you can clearly see that there is a lot of past consolidation in those areas. I usually draw 2 horizontal lines to create a "zone" to trade with.
Basically, if you pull up a weekly chart on any of the Majors, all of them are sitting at a major support or resistance zone. Either we will see a fast rejection, or we will chop around until it has build enough momentum to break through. I doubt it will be a clean fast breakout for any of the currencies.
Wow, huge gaps coming out of the weekend.
I'm lucky to be sitting on the sidelines and not be on the wrong side of this hole.
And I think I'm going to stay away from trading the Exotics for awhile. EURJPY bid/ask was 11 pips apart...hard to make any kind of money dealing in this kind of spread.
Legendary Jim Rogers said there is going to be short term dollar bull, but long term dollar bear. He stated he is unloading his dollar in this strength.
I knew I should have traded those gaps though. Back in the stocks/futures trading days, there are always gaps at the open, and the old timers would always trade into the gap because they always say....gaps always get filled.
And Part 2 of that lesson was, after the gap gets filled, the price action usually snaps back to the direction of where the gap was created.
Let's see if Part 2 comes to reality.
Still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the long term H4 trend to show itself.
I'm planning on funding another account to trade some short term, high risk, high reward strategies. It's going to be wild and fast paced. Probably next year.
Part 2 was right.
Too bad I was too chicken to test that theory on the gaps.
I'm planning on funding another account to trade some short term, high risk, high reward strategies. It's going to be wild and fast paced. Probably next year.
Firebird? Martingale? 10point3? Blessing 2?
I really don't think it makes any difference which one I choose, all of them will fail in the long term because they cannot survive in all market conditions. Some will favor trend, while others will favor the range. These EA's will do spectacularly well in their own specific market condition that is based on their designed logic. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to tell if the market is going to range or trend before it happens (random?), if we had this information beforehand...we would be very rich.
Maybe I'll just throw a dice or flip a coin to see which one of these EA's I choose. Then it's up to the market to see if it can beat the mouse trap. Either I make a great return on my investment or it goes to nothing.
Back into the game.
Going to take a small manual trade here on the Euro long, hopefully to close out in a few hours with small profit. The price has formed into a triangle, and can break out either way. I'm hoping for a small spike up (either a head fake or a genuine up move) so I can lock in some profits. Definitely not a trend trade here.
I have a window of 4 hrs before the London Open, where it's going to really start moving. I'm hoping to close before that. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Going to check back in a few hours. Cya!
Back into the game.
Going to take a small manual trade here on the Euro long, hopefully to close out in a few hours with small profit. The price has formed into a triangle, and can break out either way. I'm hoping for a small spike up (either a head fake or a genuine up move) so I can lock in some profits. Definitely not a trend trade here.
I have a window of 4 hrs before the London Open, where it's going to really start moving. I'm hoping to close before that. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Going to check back in a few hours. Cya!The manual long trade I took before London open didn't close until the US open.
But when it did, it was a huge spike on the Euro to my favor.
In hindsight, it was mostly luck though because if the spike had gone the other way, I would have had a major loss. But I'll take it, that's why this is trading.
I was playing the high probability that price would touch either of the trendlines for small "scalp" profit. That's all I was looking for.
The problem with many traders is analysis paralysis. They want to filter out all the bad trades. They want to have very high probability of winning based on past history.
And after all their criteria and filters, they can't make a decision to actually trade because there are too many questions in their own head.
Account #1 Summary (Post Date):
Deposit/Withdrawal: 20 000.00
Balance: 37 750.73
Equity: 37 750.73
On the chart, I drew 2 trendlines in red, as you can see the Euro was compressing into a triangle.
I entered at the opening price of the light blue line at 1.2615.
I was hoping for an exit around where the yellow X is with a trailing stop because I had thought the price would at least hit the upper trendline before any real movment.
When the spike came, it was so fast that I actually exited at the yellow line 1.2706 via a trailing stop and left 100+ pips on the table.
It's all good.
I could have easily folded, but thanks to The Gambler, I knew when to hold and play the hand!
/cue the music
IMHO , you should withdraw the acid of your account "20K" and risk only the profit you have made, your taking a big risk in your trades and risk work both ways, you can get lucky few time butthe one thing sure about luck is that it always change
Wish you all the luck and success in your trades
I'm trying to upgrade my snake oil potion.
I think I'm within reach of the Red one.
Thanks MiniMe for the luck, I'm going to need it! Trading has a lot to do with pyschology, and if you start withdrawing now, I know carelessness and a sense of false security will creep in which will lead to stupid trades and losses. And if you let fear and greed have any foothold, it will eat you alive. If I'm going to take my account to even higher in the future, I'm going to have to get used to this size and account swings. I already cut my position sizes in half, so I feel comfortable at the moment.