The Legend of The Gambler - page 8
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Mr. Marketz,
So since you really believe the market is 100% random (which I don't), what is your philosphy on trading strategies? To me, there is only a few ways of doing it.
Either you capture it by money management (semi-martingale) or you use some type volatility capture (i.e. grid) where you don't really care about direction of trade. I think carry trades are pretty much dead at this point.
I'm always up to learning new things and open to new ideas that has merit.
Here it is...
Kenny,
I don't want to turn your thread into a mess by discussing strategies, but here's all I can offer regarding EA trading.
1. Forget the auto pilot 2-way bullshit. YOU must set it for "unidirectional" -depending on your personal market sentiment (a.k.a - hunch).
2. Having said that (and considering my market theory), forget all the EA's with directional logic...they're useless to you if you're good on the price direction. (If you're not good on price direction... any EA will take a loss).
3. Bust out a grid, and figure out a safe spacing ratio. Then, skinny down on the sizing, and wait for a nice 4 hour pull back. Set up some limit orders, and let the little F'er run.
4. Profits... check back in 4 to 8 hours... if you got em, take em. Then repeat.
5. No profits, no problem. Simply close at (your) predefined equity DD, double the sizing on a new directional change. Losses made up, and new money in the bank.
6. Keep a tally of the losses for every close. This way you'll know when your back in the money from the double down.
Initial 1:1 is strongly recommended. Let us never get to the point when we start fooling ourselves into thinking that we're getting pretty good at picking direction. Being right on a move is a seasonal phenomenon. You might be on for Spring and Summer, but Winter and Fall might really suck. The only edge is the creative use of leverage.
MM
Sorry for the verbal mess above, here's a picture that should pretty much sell the concept...
Great job kenny,
Seem to have done pretty ok so far. Much better than most people here.
^ Thanks, radicalmoses.
It's been pretty good so far (keeping my fingers crossed), but I know there are many who reads this thread probably think it has all been just dumb luck, and what I'm doing is just gambling. Only time will tell. There is definitely a lot of discretion in my strategy entry and exits. For the most part, it is not a set and forget type of EA.
I'm hoping for a repeat performance % wise in the month of December, but I don't think it will be as good as November because there is too much holiday and vacations happening at the end of next month.
Kenny,
I don't want to turn your thread into a mess by discussing strategies, but here's all I can offer regarding EA trading.
1. Forget the auto pilot 2-way bullshit. YOU must set it for "unidirectional" -depending on your personal market sentiment (a.k.a - hunch).
2. Having said that (and considering my market theory), forget all the EA's with directional logic...they're useless to you if you're good on the price direction. (If you're not good on price direction... any EA will take a loss).
3. Bust out a grid, and figure out a safe spacing ratio. Then, skinny down on the sizing, and wait for a nice 4 hour pull back. Set up some limit orders, and let the little F'er run.
4. Profits... check back in 4 to 8 hours... if you got em, take em. Then repeat.
5. No profits, no problem. Simply close at (your) predefined equity DD, double the sizing on a new directional change. Losses made up, and new money in the bank.
6. Keep a tally of the losses for every close. This way you'll know when your back in the money from the double down.
Initial 1:1 is strongly recommended. Let us never get to the point when we start fooling ourselves into thinking that we're getting pretty good at picking direction. Being right on a move is a seasonal phenomenon. You might be on for Spring and Summer, but Winter and Fall might really suck. The only edge is the creative use of leverage.
MM
Sorry for the verbal mess above, here's a picture that should pretty much sell the concept...There is no need to apologize for articulating yourself in a very detailed manner. I appreciate the thought and insight that was put into the post, unlike most of the rants populating the forum. So as I had assumed from experience, you are basically using a grid and money management to capture most of the volatility.
And I strongly agree that picking a single direction is the most profitable way of trading. The grid is a novel idea when first introduced, but I have only seen a few instances where people actually applied it in a sensible way that actually has a chance for profitability. Most people try to trade micro lots to dumb down the risk, or let the grid just keep trading like it is a cash machine for the long haul. Both will face grim realities when the market goes into its price pattern to kill grids somewhere between a trend and a range. So I see you have mitigated this somewhat with your strategy. Although you do realize you are practicing semi-martingalish money management.
So what happens when you have 6 losses in a row? Are you doubling down each time? That can get painful real quick.
I also have a pocket grid strategy that I have playing with in my mind. I just might code it up one of these days.
BTW, I have funded a second account with $5K to trade high risk, high return strategies. This will get interesting because I believe it will mostly depend on luck.
Fantastic read kenny keep it up and good luck.
Cheers
Beno
So what happens when you have 6 losses in a row?
You end up trading each position @ 6:1
Are you doubling down each time?
Not necessarily. It depends on how I'm feeling at the time. Sometimes (let's say on a long setup), I'll close out when I spot that price has pretty much ripped through my initial support area. Instead of reversing (and doubling), I'll set up another grid (buylimits) at a lower level support (doubling on the size). This is why I mentioned taking note of the previous balance prior to closing a loss. If the second setup shows a profit (on top of the previous loss; I'm out).
That can get painful real quick.
On 4 hour bars... nothing happens "real quick".
Final analogy:
Trading can be compared to the story of David and Goliath. You can be David, or you can be Goliath. The way to decide which character you're going to play solely depends on your edge. My edge is the creative use of leverage, and knowing that eventually people want to book their profits. All I need to do is to isolate locations where profit taking may occur. I can be wrong many times over, and still walk away with someone else's money.
Although it's really none of my business, I'd love to see you skinny down on those sizes at some point, Kenny. The "gambler's" way of life only has a place in songs and movies. There's something to be said about acquiring a calm piece of mind when trades are open... and this is the only way I have been able to do it successfully. But again, to each his own... I'll be around.
MM
Although it's really none of my business, I'd love to see you skinny down on those sizes at some point, Kenny. The "gambler's" way of life only has a place in songs and movies. There's something to be said about acquiring a calm piece of mind when trades are open... and this is the only way I have been able to do it successfully. But again, to each his own... I'll be around. MM
Yes, it is quite scary and exciting to trade 4-5 full standard lots at one time...meow.
(tongue in cheek) I hear ya. But as the title of this thread says, "The Legend of the Gambler".
"The Story of the Piker", doesn't have as cool of a ring to it, and I wouldn't be able to star in the songs and movies.
I am THE GAMBLER!
/cue the music
hi
congratulation for all , charity is the best solution for helping others , so God know and He will give us more more health and wealth
Nice Weekend
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^ Yes, you feel good when you give.
Tomorrow will be a busy day for sure. I'm going to head to the bulk warehouse first thing in the morning, and get all the food supplies. I hope they don't have one of those Black Friday events at the bulk warehouse, that would suck if they did.