Improve my simple trading system

 

Hi guys i'm looking for improves on my simple trading system.

I want the help of you guys because i'm newbie on forex and don't know how can i filter false signals.

The system is simple:

On the 5minute chart i put an 200 SMA and sell when price cross it down, and buy when price cross it up.

Now my question is, how can i filter false signals as they appera on the chart?

I mean, there is some price action, or some indicator that can help me to discovery if the cross will be a strong move or weak move?

Of course this image is just an example, but there are many more fake crosses that happen that are not in the image.

Kindest regards,

Thomas

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Maybe I could help with some material: Trading Systems: Introduction

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Have you try to open another chart in bigger TF, lets say 15 or 30 minutes?...

Adapt a MA to that chart comparing with your 5 min. chart, in order to establish parameters. Example: if in your 5 min. chart you see too many fake signals, go to your higer TF chart and place a MA that avoid those false entries. Do that many times along the year in order to sharp your desired parameters. So, when you have it and trade live, after taking a trade allways look at your higher TF chart and if confirm the signal, place your trade.

I think that can help you a little, not for all fake signals, but will avoid many. Try it. 5 min TF is too "noisy" for me.

 

Hi emulatore,

Since you prefer to trade at TF5min, here is my suggestion for you to consider and test.

Simply add EMA5(close), EMA8(open) & EMA55(close). You can use EMA Crossover Signal to indicate the cross between EMA5 & EMA8. This simple setup also work well in TF15min.

Let me know if you like what you see on the chart.

P/S: Try to monitor closely during Frankfurt/London open & US open

 

Thank you guys, will start the tests on monday and let's see how it goes

 
emulatore:
Thank you guys, will start the tests on monday and let's see how it goes

Why monday ? You can use your strategy tester visual mode to begin today.

 

Hello emulatore,

I want to share my idea, but please forgive my English.

Before you make setup for your M5 chart with Moving Average (MA), you must know about your chart and MA.

1 (one) candlestick on M5 is price moving for 5 minutes.

So, if you want to know about the moving average of price for 1 (one) hour, you must set the period of your MA = 12.

Now, let's make some setup for your chart.

A. We must know about daily trend.

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Daily Trend = moving average of the price for 24 hours.

One hour on tf m5 = 12 candlesticks.

So the period of our MA is 24 hours x 12 candlestick = 288 period MA

Set your MA with period 288, method = Exponential, apply to = close.

Color = Blue.

B. We must know about smaller trend, 8 hours trend.

--------------------------------------------------

The calculation is the same with above :

8 hours x 12 candlestick = 96 period MA.

Set Envelopes indicator with period= 96, method = Exponential, apply to = close, Deviation = 0.05% , Color for Upper & Lower Band = Dark Orange.

This indicator for detect sideway market.

If candlesticks are moving horizontal inside Envelopes area it's mean sideway condition.

For clear seeing 8 hours trend, we add MA with period= 96, method = Exponential, apply to = close,Color = Gold.

C. We must know about smaller trend, 2 hours trend.

--------------------------------------------------

2 hours x 12 candlestick = 24 period MA.

Set your MA with period 24, method = Exponential, apply to = close.

Color = Magenta.

D. We must know about trigger for BuySell, using 30 minutes trend.

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Set your MA with period 6, method = Simple, apply to = close.

Color = White.

E. Some traders using MACD, maybe you too.

-------------------------------------------

So we can add MACD with parameters :

Fast MA = 24, Slow MA =96, MACD SMA = 6, Apply to = Close.

Color for Main = DarkGreen, Signal = White.

Don't forget to give zero line level on your MACD with Gold color.

If MACD on top of zero line it's mean up trend, vice versa.

It's all, I attached Analisa_m5 template, you can download and use for your chart.

Now scroll back your chart and see all indicators that we use on this template. You will know something.

Happy Nice PiPs.

ServerUang.

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Good Info for All

ServerUang / iGoR

Nice information for any trader alike..... It's like trading in a nutshell....

 

Very Good Discussion

Good to see the quality of the discussions on MA here. Very good information provided from the replies to this thread so far, very encouraging and thanks Thomas for starting this thread.

From a personal perspective, June/July this year I traded live different MA crosses incorporating the 200ema setup as a filter with some pretty good trades using the Universal MA EA I got from this forum , but I had to discontinue it for now because of a number wrong small trades taken up caused by such weak signal like the ones you identified .

To this effect, I think there is a great potential in using the 200sma you mention as a base in developing a trading system provided some good filter(s) could be identify in filtering the weak signals.

Attempt to come up with a system that will filter all weak signals will definitely be desirable but very far fetched and unrealistic ambition, however in my humble opinion a simple and effective filter that can significantly identify and weed out a lot of such weak signals will surely enhance a strategy based on the 200 line and lead to some good returns.

Fingers crossed, with all the brains at work in here some I am positive a good outcome will come out of this thread. Keep the momentum going.

By the way, looking at the sample chart you posted, not a bad day's result for such a simple system if you happened not to have been stopped out of trades by the weak signals - Very promising system.

Best regards

Archie

 

Very good answer, master iGoR.

Only few comments: "Mas have the tendency to lagg"... yeah, as any indi, except "the forecasting ones". But depend on how you trade it, MAs can be one of the most sensitive indys in the market. Actually, I use a shifted fast one in my trades, with very good and consistent results

One mistake people make when see a MA is that they think is a simple indicator with easy-to-follow signals to place trades. Actually, is a simple indicator, but not-so-simple to trade succesfully. Is full of tips and tricks. Experinced ma traders know what I am talking about.

- There are 3 golden rules in forex: The first one is "KNOW YOURSELF" and is very old, was written in an ancient greek oracle. The second one is "KNOW YOUR TOOL", and the third one is "KNOW YOUR PAIR". If these 3 rules are archived, success is a natural conseqence.

** By the way, the last 2 rules are fxnewbie's.

 
emulatore:
Hi guys i'm looking for improves on my simple trading system.

I want the help of you guys because i'm newbie on forex and don't know how can i filter false signals.

The system is simple:

On the 5minute chart i put an 200 SMA and sell when price cross it down, and buy when price cross it up.

Now my question is, how can i filter false signals as they appera on the chart?

I mean, there is some price action, or some indicator that can help me to discovery if the cross will be a strong move or weak move?

Of course this image is just an example, but there are many more fake crosses that happen that are not in the image.

Kindest regards,

Thomas

There is a golden rule that you should remember as long as you will work with moving averages to pin point your entrys.

With MA's:

The more you will try to filter out false signals the later your entry is going to be.

The faster you want to be in a position or market move the more false entrys you are going to have.

If you take the same MA as you have now on your chart and let it cross with an other MA to trigger your entry you are going to see that you have less false signals but you will see also that on important reversals you are going to be later in the market. Later in the market is losing potential profit and is having bigger stoplosses if you want to place these stops on strategic places like previous tops or bottoms..

Just realize that already millions of people have walked on the path of the MA's and there is now such thing as finding a solution to filter out the majority of the false trades but still will be quick in the market.

MA's have the tendency to LAG. The bigger the value and the higher the time frame the less false signals you will have but the more lag you will encounter (the later in the market and the bigger the stops).

Important also is that you can find some very good value for some pair and some time frame but if you will take those value on to an other pair it will just not work because that other pair just moves or oscilates in an other way.

Or that these values will work nicely for some time but if the market conditions start to change that you will feel that those values don't work anymore.

Be also awere of the fact if you arrive in a consolidation market that with MA's you can encounter quite a streak of loosing trades and they will eat quite a big shunk of your profits because you will feel at some point that you buy on tops and sell at bottoms.

But they stay a very nice tool or indicator to set your first steps in building a system or strategy.

But I never saw a 100% mecanical system that is purely based on MA's and that showed satisfying results over a longer period of time.

regards...iGoR

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