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Recap
Interesting picture about Euro. Rebound?
Somebody asked me by PM about the trendlines on this thread.
Answer:I'm using mostly the indicator on post #10 of this thread: https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/general
Out of Gas
I was reading many studies on this week talking about commodities and why they're falling now. One of them was talking about the weather conditions on the US and the expectations about the coming harvest.
And we can't ignore the big moves on the currencies this week. I hardly believe there are not islands on the market. Every believer of the butterfly theory believes in certain facts.
This week I like to explain what I'm looking and thinking about the future.
First off, I like to talk about the lies to manipulate the crowd.
Lies expressed by the well known and well paid
analyst. It's surprising what you discover if you are careful to file the previous reports.
We could start with Ethanol and bio fuel.
Because the US and other G7 countries are investing biggest money in developing this oil replacements the values of this commodities must go to the moon. The best commodity related with Ethanol is corn. Sugar cane is 80% better to produce Ethanol than corn but it's only harvested on Brazil (main producer) Argentina and other few countries. Producing Ethanol with corn it's highly inefficient but few people knows that.
So, let's buy corn and get it rich quickly.
Our next get it rich quickly is the most popular commodity needed by China, the fastest growing economy on the world. Adding 20 millions of people to the middle class every year. And because the Chinese people love soybeans our goal is to buy as many as we can because China will buy as many as they can buy no matter the price.
Buy it now.
We have another chance to make money fast. Oil will hit $200/barrel because the increasing demand coming from BRIC's (Brazil, Russia, India, China). ALSO, this economies are getting enough force to decoupling from US economy. If the US is going to a recession we will not see any problem on this countries that need oil. We also see many problems menacing the production because a lot of oil is imported from countries with huge political problems, terrorism problems, religion problems and so on.
Buy it now.
Famous quotes
Widely pronounced during the first part of the current year.
The worst of the mortgage problem have passed. We expect the US dollar will keep falling for some time rebounding in the first months of 2009..
We believe Oil can't go up, above 100 because the G7 will force an increase in production not to add more problems to the economy. Buy it now is not a good choice.
The parity seems to be unstoppable for the end year.
And...
The commodities based currencies are safest than dollar right now.
Journalists represent interests as same television programs, hosts and so on.
I had one professor that used to say: "One of the hardest problems of the analyst is to try to read between lines. The news in the paper just say what the writer wants to say to you and is your task to discover what it's hidden between the lines"
The TA results better with a good fundamental base. The problem is that fundamentals as price in trading needs to be studied by removing the noise. Think in terms to apply a moving average to the fundamental analysis.
My tips:
Recession: the world is going to a recession combined with inflation, known as stagflation.
Why is that?
The US economy is 20% of the world economy. Bigger oil consumer. Home of the world economy new waves. If something happens there sooner than later will impact in the rest of the world. And the "real" news coming from the US are really bad.
Also, the world has lived during the last 6 years a bigger bubble than mortgages bubble. It was the: made money just by invention.
CFW, DS, CDO, CDS. Many products thought to create money liquidity from nothing and now that liquidity is gone.
30% of the commodity prices have nothing to do with real facts, are just speculation.
Where do you think your account leverage is coming from? there is no real money backing up, just numbers created by smart minds.
Banks where the providers of that excess of liquidity and now banks are in troubles.
During the coming months the first markets to sell will be the emerging countries markets because the risk aversion and the recession in the US will eat the exporters boom.
Last, there aren't many places to go. Gold seems to be the last refugee but is sooner to bet there. Specially because some speculators comes from countries that increased the public budget according with now old commodities prices and will need that extra money to cover costs.
Fortunately as we can see in the pictures, TA is abstract and if you can combine with good fundamentals your rate to success will increase. But to do that we need to learn to read between lines and to do that the old phrase "do not trust in anybody" has the all sense.
Sell bellow the last lowest seems to be a reliable alternative.
Also between 1.4900/1.4880 there are pivots supports, daily, weekly and monthly. Wait for the breakout. Do not hurry.
Sell bellow the last lowest seems to be a reliable alternative.
Also between 1.4900/1.4880 there are pivots supports, daily, weekly and monthly. Wait for the breakout. Do not hurry.
It really was for this week
.
220 pips is a good number.
Projections
AUD: Follow global fundamentals carefully unless you're trading in low time frames.
0.8510 is the 100% fibo retracement as shows picture 1 but also is 61.8% in picture 2. Next level, 0.8200 is 76.4% in pic 2, but the most important level is 0.8100, the 61.8 of the whole move. Then 0.7681 with target on 0.7012. That's 1500 pips below. The whole down move could take 110 weeks.
Projections
Cable is really easy, if MACD could sustain the read line break, 1.700 is target on next 6 months.
EURO is really interesting.
Is reaching the projected target and the 50% fibo on next picture. MACD and fundamentals will take the EURO to 1994 high 1.4500. Then 2005 high is target.
By sit us on the right side of the market no matter if we're on M5, our chances to win are better.
We could use large stops to help outlined entries or we could add lots to a opened trades.
I'm not doing this to trade weeklies, just to see where is the bull market and the bear market. With bull market I will ignore all bearish signals and inverse with bearish markets.