**Steinitz** Method Revealed Here - page 79
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Hi Don...thank you for responding to my post so quickly.
I do beleive this is a tricky issue, as news releases occur daily affecting various pairs in rotation and can only comment from my own personal viewpoint, that I find them risky and often dangerous to be caught in a trade at time of release. Even when the news is in your favor (i.e. it should push price in the direction of your trade), often it will turn 50-100 pips against you first, before returning back and resuming in your direction.
Worse still, how often do you see positive news having a negative effect on the price of the very currency it should be boosting and no-one can account for it or provide an explanation for this contrarian behaviour. This is one of the reasons I cannot be a fundamentalist. I am a purist technician, believing 100% in 'technicals'. I agree that news, which is fundamental will influence the market and in particular the price of the currency to which that news applies.
However, you only need to look back over charts to see that the influence of the news had a temporary, hiccup effect on the price, reversing it in the opposite direction to what it was heading, for a short period of time only. Price then reverses back to the direction that technicals were forecasting (prior to release) and are still indicating. In the interim, of course, the price may have reversed 150 pips, before resuming back on it's original path and this is 150 pips that will have temporarily been against you.
The exception to this rule generally occurs, whenever a pair is due for a reversal and is approaching recognized S & R levels and technicals cannot possibly forecast a bounce or breakthrough. It is then, for example, that a positive news release can bounce an otherwise tumbling price back up off a support level and then keep going upwards for few hundred pips without looking back. This is an example of when fundamentals are at there most dangerous. The news was the excuse it was looking for to reverse, which happens all of the time whenever a currencey is "ready".
So the problem with news is that you never know by remaining in the trade and riding the storm, whether it will go against you temporarily for 50-150 pips and then come right again or it will go against you and keep on going for several hundred pips and may possibly not come right ahain for several months.
I am not trying to be an alarmist, but a realist and I am sure you are aware of these possibilities, without having to have them pointed out to you and please realize that everything I am stating here is intended to be costructive and for the benefit of everyone who is a member. Being a professional gambler as you are, you no doubt have a far higher risk tolerance threshold than the average trader and can possibly stomach 150 pips against you in any given trade. I must confess that I couldn't stomach such a drawdown, particularly in the interest of good money management, when attempting to scalp only 25 pips in the first place. The greater risk of course is the very real danger that it is due a major reversal and does not come back in your favor.
I do believe that we have to look at the potential hazards that news releases produce, treat them seriously and come up with an answer as to how we tackle them with the Steinitz EA, as whatever system you trade, they are forever present.
johnnyJohnny......
Johnny......
I completely concur with what you are stating in your last two posts. I believe that if there is a reliable news indicator (I've seen one in the past somewhere) I would consider it added later. Right now we will have many ways to pick an exit that suits each individual traders risk tolerances.
Lets discuss again what I will be including for exits:
1. Fixed TP for each TF from 5M to month
2. Percentage of ATR for each TF (I like that one)
3. Trailing stop
4. B/E plus "X" pips (Once B/E + "X" obtained SL set to B/E and TP set to 1,2 or 3 above)
5. Close multiple lots at individual PIP TP targets
The entries will allow for additional lot increases/decreases based on current capital balances. Of course user defined.
I have asked Lee Yan Cn from China who is a Civil Engineer who loves programming on the side if I am overwhelming him. His reply "absolutely not". He is the only person that has walked the walk. He fixed our refresh issues on the MTF indicators. He gave us an alert for entering on a current unfinished HAS bar. He has given me a full blown "Original Method" alert with arrows that displays 1 to 4 bar confirmations.
I talk to him every night on MSN messenger. I am going to be getting a flow chart (per my request) so that I feel more comfortable that I can see the entire programs logic. I may not be a seasoned programmer but I have lots of experience with electronic schematics as an advanced licensed Amateur operator.
This guy has even put together which I have never seen before a list of functions that the EA is performing while it is searching the rules displayed in "real time" on the screen. Talk about documentation support at it's finest. If anyone knows something about programming, its the documentation that lacks the most.
Be patient........
Don,
Here is an indicator I ran across that might help filter against the EA trading into a sideways market. its very simple to use so let me know what you think.
Blue = Up price action
Red = Down price action
Gold = Sideways (no trade)
flattrend_w_macd.mq4I am not impressed. Always happy to see what you guys are looking at. No disrespect. On the contrary I say thanks.....
Membership announcement
Just reminding any new readers who have not signed up to become a member and wish to receive benefits by way of special announcements, alerts, updates and discounts on any future commercial applications please PM me with your experience with the HAS method and your email address.
We are 210 members right now. I did a Google search on my name and finding other trading forums directing readers to this site. By the way if anybody wonders if this could ever get so big that it could work against us the answer is no.
The 4x market is extremely liquid and I doubt me or anybody else could ever influence the market. In fact, if thousands of traders entered on a well performing EA it would actually benefit us as the move would become self fulfilling. We would be part of the momentum and others could/would follow causing buying/selling pressure to help advance the move.
This does happen in the stock market especially on low volume stocks. Since the market here is extremely liquid we would still get good fills and spread would be reasonable. Just a thought......
Membership clarification
Hello Steinitz
Really enjoying your forum and hope to be on my road to recovery through this system.
Your post #809 mentions that you have a membership of 210 members. Appreciate if you could clarify a little. Is it the same as being a member of forex-tsd.com or is it something different. If it is different, please provide some details and how can one become a member.
When I proceeded to post this question, I noticed the thread subscription dropdown box. I guess that is my answer...
Regards
TF
Hello Steinitz
Really enjoying your forum and hope to be on my road to recovery through this system.
Your post #809 mentions that you have a membership of 210 members. Appreciate if you could clarify a little. Is it the same as being a member of forex-tsd.com or is it something different. If it is different, please provide some details and how can one become a member.
When I proceeded to post this question, I noticed the thread subscription dropdown box. I guess that is my answer...
Regards
TFThere is a difference. Please send me a PM (private message) with your email address.....
Hey Guys, i have been a long observer of this thread right from FF, i have all the indicators on my chart and i think, i generally follow the rules before entering a trade but i can't seem to make any pips, its been about a week since my last positive trade, each time i enter i experience a fake out, I think i may be using the wrong TF or not sure how to jump from TF to TF to figure out the strength of the trend. Anyone have any ideas?
Hey Guys, i have been a long observer of this thread right from FF, i have all the indicators on my chart and i think, i generally follow the rules before entering a trade but i can't seem to make any pips, its been about a week since my last positive trade, each time i enter i experience a fake out, I think i may be using the wrong TF or not sure how to jump from TF to TF to figure out the strength of the trend. Anyone have any ideas?
I think to make any PIPs, you have to get in as soon as two TFs agree else you'll be taking a risk which is what is killing me. If you plot on 15M then be sure the 30M agree. One thing I do notice, if the higher TF agrees with the lower TF, price usually have moved too far, a risk you need to decide whther to take it or not since we do not know how much more momemntum is in it before it goes against us.
yea thats my problem i always enter too late, trying to figure out a way to enter at the right time and make at least 10pips
yea thats my problem i always enter too late, trying to figure out a way to enter at the right time and make at least 10pips
Hence the reason I prefer the "Scalping Method" This doesn't happen. It's a new way of thinking about entries. Take a look at that method.
General announcement !
Again thanks for the PM's of new members who wish to become part of an elite team of traders from all walks of life. The amazing thing I have learned from gathering names of people who want to become members is the vast number of you that are actually pounding down pips!
I really had no idea you would pick up on this so easily. And most of you from what I can tell are looking at the original method. Looking to align the three lowest TF's before taking a trade. Many of you feel less stress when pulling the trigger. I feel the same way. Kinda reminds me of "The Wizard of Oz" when Dorothy was following the yellow brick road.
At least I can say I have altered many of your paths from pure frustration and lost hope to titillating pleasure knowing there is something much better out there.
Membership has grown to around 220. I am going to have to cutoff new members at 10,000.00 LOL. Just a reminder if you need a "Scalping Alert" for entering on the lower TF please email me or send a PM if you are not a member yet.
Some have asked for the "Original Method" alert that I have. I am holding off until it has the exits programmed and we are finished with the present project. Lee has said he should be finished by this Thursday. His time zone is one day ahead.
I will be out of town but returning shortly. I will let him back and forward test this is my absence. Keep the PM's coming for new membership as it does have it's privileges. No more suggestions are needed. We want this EA finished in this century!