XO_Method REVISED - page 5
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libertao - announcements
Libertao,
I have made a study of ValeoFX for over 1 year now - a bit like the die-hard Woodie fans.
I'm sure he would not mind me sharing this which is what he has told me in past.
Announcements.
2 sources for announcements which ValeoFX has used are:
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
and the forexfactory calendar.
ValeoFX recommends that you are not in a trade during any announcement graded A-C by the yahoo finance people.
The advantage of the factory calendar is a) its free b) it contains more than just US news, eg announcements, speeches, European, Japanese figures etc.
You can also use the grading system on factory - a red indicated volatility expected, ie do not be in trade at time of announcement.
I believe the Valeo is willing to stay in a trade up to about 1 minute before the announcement.
The reason for not trading the news is self-explanatory, but I will explain anyway.
We often have forecasted figures for the news. Many times the economist is totally wrong. The conclusion is therefore that we cannot predict the announcements. Therefore being in a trade at these times constitutes a gamble - you cannot have high enough confidence that the trade will go the way you want it - there is no technical basis for the trade because fundamentals may outweigh technicals and anything can happen in the market as a result. I experienced this last week where I was long in the pound. I did exit about 30 minutes before the announcement, because my 9 pips was toppish anyway and I was trading a risky long in a bearish market whilst tutoring a client one on one live in the strategies I have developed and use in addition to XO System. My own fundamental and technical analysis from the analyst I pay to give me ideas each day including fundamentals and commentary on forecasts stated that the USD would further weaken as a result of the forecasted announcement coming true.
The forecast did not come true, rendering the advice null, in fact worse than null, it would have caused me to get hopes up on "knowing what will happen" during the announcement, only to see the announcement being the reverse to the forecast and therefore the market going in opposite direction.
Even with "trade the news" it is very difficult to get in on time. You will notice that with a bloomberg stream, the market has already moved a few seconds before the release on bloomberg.
My conclusion therefore is why trade the news at all when there are enough technical opportunities outside of these gamblers hours?
Have people tested this on the USDCHF or the USDJPY? I really like this system, but don't think I can manage a 5 minute chart on the London session with no alerts from the US West Coast
Speaking of alerts, I know it's been mentioned before, but I really think it would be a fantastic feature of the system if a programmer could modify the 4TF XO2 to have an optional alert when it changes to all 4 bars green/red.
Final question: I'm a complete newbie regarding news. What news announcements do people avoid trading near? For example, just the red-colored labels for traded pairs on ForexFactory's calendar? I've been looking for a beginner's guide to Forex news but haven't found much, any links/suggestions?
Thanks to anyone who can respondMy advice to you is to stay away from News Announcements until you are competent enough to trade them successfully. All of them, but be aware of them so that you don't get a nasty surprise when in a trade.
Best wishes.
Libertao,
I have made a study of ValeoFX for over 1 year now - a bit like the die-hard Woodie fans.
I'm sure he would not mind me sharing this which is what he has told me in past.
Announcements.
2 sources for announcements which ValeoFX has used are:
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
and the forexfactory calendar.
ValeoFX recommends that you are not in a trade during any announcement graded A-C by the yahoo finance people.
The advantage of the factory calendar is a) its free b) it contains more than just US news, eg announcements, speeches, European, Japanese figures etc.
You can also use the grading system on factory - a red indicated volatility expected, ie do not be in trade at time of announcement.
I believe the Valeo is willing to stay in a trade up to about 1 minute before the announcement.
The reason for not trading the news is self-explanatory, but I will explain anyway.
We often have forecasted figures for the news. Many times the economist is totally wrong. The conclusion is therefore that we cannot predict the announcements. Therefore being in a trade at these times constitutes a gamble - you cannot have high enough confidence that the trade will go the way you want it - there is no technical basis for the trade because fundamentals may outweigh technicals and anything can happen in the market as a result. I experienced this last week where I was long in the pound. I did exit about 30 minutes before the announcement, because my 9 pips was toppish anyway and I was trading a risky long in a bearish market whilst tutoring a client one on one live in the strategies I have developed and use in addition to XO System. My own fundamental and technical analysis from the analyst I pay to give me ideas each day including fundamentals and commentary on forecasts stated that the USD would further weaken as a result of the forecasted announcement coming true.
The forecast did not come true, rendering the advice null, in fact worse than null, it would have caused me to get hopes up on "knowing what will happen" during the announcement, only to see the announcement being the reverse to the forecast and therefore the market going in opposite direction.
Even with "trade the news" it is very difficult to get in on time. You will notice that with a bloomberg stream, the market has already moved a few seconds before the release on bloomberg.
My conclusion therefore is why trade the news at all when there are enough technical opportunities outside of these gamblers hours?Thank you for this comprehensive reply. Much appreciate it.
XO alert with CCI.
Works when all 4 XO's have a signal and the 39 CCI has crossed zero.
Mart
[Great news info]
Wow! Thanks for putting so much time and effort into that reply, I'll definitely be following your advice. One follow-up question: how long after the news announcement do you wait before entering on a signal again?
XO alert with CCI.
Works when all 4 XO's have a signal and the 39 CCI has crossed zero.
MartExcellent, that was fast! Thank you!
The Hardwork Shows !!!
First I would like to say thank you for sharing all your hardwork. I just found the thread and have everything on the chart . I hate to ask such a dumb question has this, but I can't figure out how to change the CCI levels to be different colors per level. I can change them all to any color but what is the trick needed to change each line to have its separate color ? When I change the color it makes them all the same. I have tried clicking on each line value separate and it does chances the color but when I click on the level value for next line and it changes, it makes the change on the previous level to changes to the new color. The default was silver so that is where I am back to for each level. Thanks in advance... I am not new to trading but have several years experience in eminis and a couple in forex. My main use has not been Metrader but Tradestation- Esginal and 20 more. One other question, I have an indicator that works extremely well that is programed in tradestation. I am not a programmer, if someone could convert it to Metrader I would share it with everyone. It is built on the MACD and BB combined and displays different color of dots around the BB bands has the market changes direction. I watch it in several time frames and shows market direction very clearly and precise and lag time is quite small using 1 minute time frame. If some one who could do the programming and there is any interest I will be happy to share it with all. Thanks again....
You cant have multi colour lines in the indicator (as you have found out)
The trick is to use the the line tool from the top taskbar and save the template.
The macdbb has already been done for met 4 , have a look in the HAMA thread.
Mart
First I would like to say thank you for sharing all your hardwork. I just found the thread and have everything on the chart . I hate to ask such a dumb question has this, but I can't figure out how to change the CCI levels to be different colors per level. I can change them all to any color but what is the trick needed to change each line to have its separate color ? When I change the color it makes them all the same. I have tried clicking on each line value separate and it does chances the color but when I click on the level value for next line and it changes, it makes the change on the previous level to changes to the new color. The default was silver so that is where I am back to for each level. Thanks in advance... I am not new to trading but have several years experience in eminis and a couple in forex. My main use has not been Metrader but Tradestation- Esginal and 20 more. One other question, I have an indicator that works extremely well that is programed in tradestation. I am not a programmer, if someone could convert it to Metrader I would share it with everyone. It is built on the MACD and BB combined and displays different color of dots around the BB bands has the market changes direction. I watch it in several time frames and shows market direction very clearly and precise and lag time is quite small using 1 minute time frame. If some one who could do the programming and there is any interest I will be happy to share it with all. Thanks again....
There are some excellent programmers around here, but I suggest you start a Thread in the General Discussion Forum asking for someone to do it for you. NewDigital is very good about requests and may recommend someone to you. However let the programmers decide who has the time.
Secondly, I just use a Horizontal-line on the levels that you are talking about. Just make sure that when you draw the line in, you set the level value precisely at say 100 otherwise it is all over the place.
Thank you for your kind words, much appreciated.
Best wishes.
XO alert with CCI.
Works when all 4 XO's have a signal and the 39 CCI has crossed zero.
MartMartin, you are a genius!! Thanks so much my friend. What would we have done without people like you who also give selflessly.
Be blessed.
Some screen shots
Dear ValeoFX;
Thank you for sharing your trading method.
You have gone into the details of the XO on post2 with thanks, but they say a picture worth a 1000 words so, would you please post some screen shots of the steps trading the XO method, it would be easier for new ppls to learn this way,I hope its not too much to ask.
Regards,
Alan