The top tenets of mechanical trading - page 3
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Nice post.
I must agree with most of the tenets...
By the way, its a totally diferent thing trading on a demo account than trading on a live account.
I spent some good time trading on demo accounts, and one day i figured out i was ready to open my live account (i had a good performance on demo accounts, using a mix of discretionary and mechanical trading).
So after searching and trying countless brokers, i i opened my first live account with 25k, and decided to start with Interactive Brokers.
Lost 5k on the first two months, then decided to take a step aside and analise what i was doing wrong. After a month i resumed trading, and in one month lost 2k with my account on 18k...
Again i steped aside from trading for another month and analised everything i did. I looked at my trade statement and revised every trade i did. I wrote a trading plan and put it in front of my pc, so every day i traded i should see it.
When i resumed trading i made my first profits 1k on the first month (i remember this pretty well, one really happy moment), then on the seccond month 2k, and then again 2k or so.
That way i've got back the 7k i lost on the begining, and finally i was overall profitable. The day i got back all my 25k i invited my friend to dinner to celebrate lol.
So i would like to add another tenants.
- Dont trade without a clear and well defined trading plan, and stick to it.
- Dont overtrade! If you lose money, the first thing you'll feel is the need to get it back, but you must control youreself and take your time. Its better to take 1 good trade a day, than to take 10 average trades a day. (Besides spread and commision costs lol).
- If you lose money and on the average lose money, consider steping aside from trading for some time, as long as you feel you need, and take that time to study what you did wrong.
- Be humble. Remember fear and greed are the engine of the markets, if you feel your profit is good, or its too much, then exit the trade. Dont wait for the market to take it back.
- Start with a good broker. Most good brokers dont offer "mini accounts". Do your research. Big brokerage houses are more serious than small brokers.
- Trade for what you have, not for what you could have! Most people trade thinking on what they could buy if they did this or had done that... Remember the best way of wining is not losing =P.
Thats all.
By the way, now im working for a financial company with full brokerage services as a trader, and im still profitable lol.
Cya.
1. If you cannot quickly recite the daily, weekly and monthly support & resistance values for any pair you're planning to trade with an EA, you shouldn't be trading.
2. If you can't manually calculate the currency exchange conversion values for any pair you're planning to trade with an EA, you shouldn't be trading.
3. If you cannot read and understand the code of an EA you're planning to trade with, you shouldn't be trading with it.
4. If you haven't learned to successfully trade manually for at least a year or two, you shouldn't be mechanically trading trading with an EA.
5. 99% of all EA's are destined to fail. Some sooner, some later.
6. Technical indicators don't work. They're a big fib to appease retail traders.
7. Knowledge of only price action, a few key patterns, and support/resistance is necessary to trade.
8. If you cannot quickly name the 10 key news events and their dates/times during the upcoming month, you shouldn't be trading.
9. You're worst enemy in trading is your broker.
10. Broker Pip spreads are only a portion of your trade cost. You are regularly gouged by slippage costs. If your EA has a default slippage value of 3, guess what your typical slippage will be? If it's set to 4, guess what your typical slippage will be?
11. The only EA's that will be profitable are the ones that are cleverly designed to out-fox the brokers and other insideous market forces by resorting to tricks, gimmicks, and smoke & mirrors tactics.
12. Any EA's freely available publicly will lose your trading account.
13. 95% of "traders" on public forums are as uneducated as you are about trading. Be wary of free advice.
14. The average trader who is persistent and lucky enough to eventually become a profitable trader regularly will first lose $20K - $30K in the markets and spend another $10K on books, lessons, eBooks, subscriptions and software. The rest will perish somewhere along that path.
15. The amount of time you are "exposed" in the market through active trading, either manually or mechanically, is inversely proportional to your profitability success rate.
16. Two high probability trades yielding 15 pips each and using a lot size of 50 is all you need each week.
I have more if you'd like to hear them.And you trade for a living right? Well I do.
your worst enemy in trading is yourself!!! first and foremost.
I don't need to recite the upcoming months news events. Thats why there are calanders. I simply check the calender each day when I wake up.( http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/weekly_focus/DailyFX_Weekly_Calendar_for_2_18_07_1171658774622.html )
The average successful traders loss before becoming profitable is based on what figures? I didn't lose more than 2k before becoming successful and going full time. The average person don't have 30k to lose before becoming successful. So that statement is way far off.
#16 is insane.....lot size of 50???.....no wonder this guy thinks average loss is 30k before becoming successful. Your speaking from a rich guys point of view. Not the average point of view.
This guy is still very new if he thinks the brokers have to be "out foxed"
You do not have to out fox the broker if your trading right. The broker has absolutely no effect on my trades what so ever.
I have seen the price come with in 1 pip of my stop then turn and go to my target.((FXDD))
here is the best advise I can give any one manually trading......stay away from charts under 1hr.
I trade off weekly, daily, and 4hr charts. And only glance at the 1 hr chart when near support/resistance
You have alot to learn before posting advise......as soon as you stop blaming brokers for your losses and take full responsibility for your decisions and actions, then you have over come the first and hardest speed bump on the long bumpy road to success.
Dave
edit: I need to add some areas that I agree with you on.
Indicators alone don't work. They can be your friend though, and help out in some ways. "BUT"...I was told by a guy called Turtle @ daily fx forum, when I was new, that "price is king". I didn't belive him at first but over time came to figure out he was right. All you really need is price structure, support/resistance, and properly drawn trend lines. Just keep drawing those lines and trying to take demo trades based on them. Do this for about a year (give or take), and you'll develop a feel for it and the losers will start to become less and less. You'll start holding winners longer, and you'll know, from what you've observed before, when to get out. Maybe use 1-2 indicaters to aid in exit. Entry don't have to be as planned as your exit. As a matter of fact, your entry can be flexible. This gives your brain and nerves a rest from expecting an immediate move in your favor. If you know your entry isn't exact then you'll comfortably allow for some things to unfold.
I went further than I expected but these few simple things can aid you or any one else no matter what system they chose.
MP-- whew, but you guys sure do write a lot !
And you trade for a living right? Well I do.
your worst enemy in trading is yourself!!! first and foremost.
This guy is still very new if he thinks the brokers have to be "out foxed"
You do not have to out fox the broker if your trading right. The broker has absolutely no effect on my trades what so ever.
I have seen the price come with in 1 pip of my stop then turn and go to my target.((FXDD))===============================================
well, ive spent a lot of years trading various "instruments" and find that the institutions are interested in only one thing -- MONEY ! and they make most of it by using YOUR money (PRIMARY example being mutual funds)
can and will the broker in forex work against you -- you bet your bippy they will, and the SLOWER the time of day youre trading in, the MORE the mm will work at getting your money -- partly because of who they work for and partly because he/she may just be downright bored !
While it may not be the "jungle" out there some would portray, its not a hop, skip and a jump down the interstate either -- the original poster makes some good points, although obviously the figures were drawn from a higher money pool than a lot here have to work with, BUT the points themselves (with a very few exceptions) are VALID in any financial instrument trading situation.
my particular concerns are with the NEWBS who think an EA will make them money and that LEARNING is just too time consuming ! Forex, given its highly technical trading nature (support and resistance, intraday pivots, trend lines and fibs (or murry math for some) is one of the (relatively) easiest of the trading vehicles to master (or at least do pretty danged well with). One can spend a lifetime trading just ONE pair (i personally like the dollar yen this year) unlike having to flit from stock to stock, and therefore get to know and understand its moves pretty well, kinda like an excellent relationship with a lover -- there are untold methods of trading and everyone sooner or later finds their "niche", BUT YOU CANT FIND YOUR NICHE IF AN EA IS DOING YOUR TRADING FOR YOU !
so i agree that one should actually LEARN to trade MANUALLY --- armed with that information, youre good to go for the rest of your life ! I agree that the first year or so is a learning period, NOT to be ignored by the "get rich quick" newbs and i agree that is the time MOST will lose everything and drop out !
as a senior teaching moderator at a 5500 member stock group, I have watched newbs lose money year after year after year after year, and while I warn constantly, attempt to show the right way, try to teach them to learn to trade and coddle the newbs till im blue in the face, I know 95% of them wont be here next year ! Whatever the dollar amount is, the percentage of "drop outs" ;remains pretty much the same, year after year, and an EA (at the newb level) simply makes pocket change and puts off the education they so require if they are to survive !
the original poster may have gone a bit overboard on some of the bullet points, BUT to my way of thinking each one is VALID and should be shown significant respect --- ITS JUST THAT IT TAKES YEARS OF TRADING BEFORE YOU REALIZE JUST HOW CORRECT THEY ARE !
best to you all, and hope to see more than 5% of you back for the next school year !
enjoy and trade well, the money WILL come !
mp
Beware of Automation!
It's funny that this discussion is considered worth being a sticky thread, considering that this site is primarily devoted to Expert Advisors. I'm sure the advise is well-meant, but it portrays a romantic, almost puritan view of trading: it has to be hard or it will not work. Beware of the spectre of Automation!
The most important advice (free, so don't trust it!) I have ever read is that you have to find a method that fits your personality and that you are comfortable with. Whether it is discretional or mechanical doesn't really matter, as long as you have a well-defined trading plan (as somebody already pointed out) and stick to it.
I'll readily admit that according to the first post I shouldn't be trading. I would fail miserably when asked for today's support and resistance levels!
very beautiful post
very beautiful post...
I can not add a lot except, after living with the charts for a while you develop a feeling of where the price is going.
It's funny that this discussion is considered worth being a sticky thread, considering that this site is primarily devoted to Expert Advisors. I'm sure the advise is well-meant, but it portrays a romantic, almost puritan view of trading: it has to be hard or it will not work. Beware of the spectre of Automation!
The most important advice (free, so don't trust it!) I have ever read is that you have to find a method that fits your personality and that you are comfortable with. Whether it is discretional or mechanical doesn't really matter, as long as you have a well-defined trading plan (as somebody already pointed out) and stick to it.
I'll readily admit that according to the first post I shouldn't be trading. I would fail miserably when asked for today's support and resistance levels!Good post. Thanks.
It's funny that this discussion is considered worth being a sticky thread, considering that this site is primarily devoted to Expert Advisors.
I was getting a lot of PMs every day concerning EAs and i recognized that people are having a lot of illusions concerning EAs' trading. They think that it is much easier to trade using EA than manual trading. But it is not. So this thread is helping to avoid some illusions.
That is why I did this thread to be sticky immediately when this thread was started. And many members posted very good messages on this thread.
They think that it is much easier to trade using EA than manual trading. But it is not. So this thread is helping to avoid some illusions.
I see your point and in my experience it is not easy and takes a long time to develop a reliable EA. As with any software system, the development should include requirements specification, design, coding, and testing, which should be repeated to refine the EA.
1. If you don't know how to fix car you should not drive.
2. If you don't know program the computer and don't know how to fix your computer you should not use your computer.
3....
...
100.....
There are tooooo many things we don't know in our life may be we should not live.
On the other hand, more you know the better.
Just my 2 cents.
I'd like to add a couple of tenets and one other point of view.
Tenet #1 -- Fundamental trading requires a stoploss, which can be quite small. You are guessing where the price will go by anticipating news, politics, etc. So the news is wrong, or a political event doesn't materliaze, you get stopped out, no big deal.
Technical trading requires a large stoploss. It's too easy to get stopped out frequently and without knowledge of fundamentals (eg. NFP, CPI, etc), it is IMPOSSIBLE to know where the price will go.
Tenet #2 -- Optimize for a 4.00 profit factor, hope that you get a 2.00 on a live account.
My average stoploss is 200 pips across the 4 majors + usdcad. 200 pips EACH. That's a 1000 pips I need to cover if the price goes the wrong way and I have 5 positions open (rare)
My other point of view... I don't know how anyone can successfully trade an EA on a short timeframe. Too much static. It may be possible. I don't know. But with a D1 or H4 strategy, you're really trading a long term trend. Long term pressure on pricing. The large stoploss prevents stopouts at news time. And when a price spikes, it comes back, it aways does.