The Simba Con Man - page 13
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Hi Simba and others,
I wonder what are your opinions on the current situation at USDCHF, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, EURCHF, AUDUSD, and GBPJPY.
It seems to me that on all of these an uptrend could have been expected because of the position of SMA 205 (below last major cycle high). At the same time though there were false up signals by Chandelier. It wouldn't have hurt us very much but yet they were false.
Now the three shortest SMAs are close to each other, heading steep down, crossing each other all the time in different spots -- IMHO an indication of dominating 205 period cycle with the direction down (as opposed to the expected upturn mentioned above) - maybe except for Swiss Frank pairs.
What do you think?
Malcik
Hi Simba and others,
I wonder what are your opinions on the current situation at USDCHF, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, EURCHF, AUDUSD, and GBPJPY.
It seems to me that on all of these an uptrend could have been expected because of the position of SMA 205 (below last major cycle high). At the same time though there were false up signals by Chandelier. It wouldn't have hurt us very much but yet they were false.
Now the three shortest SMAs are close to each other, heading steep down, crossing each other all the time in different spots -- IMHO an indication of dominating 205 period cycle with the direction down (as opposed to the expected upturn mentioned above) - maybe except for Swiss Frank pairs.
What do you think?Hi Malcik,
Go to the 4h tf for analysis,as you said.. there were false 1h chandelier entries,so,it is better to analyze on 2 tfs minimum..wait a few days and possibly the situation will be clearer,if it isn`t...don`t enter
There is a fundamental reason behind these moves and this is the unwinding of carry trades..if this process is going to continue..the upmoves for jpy and chf will continue..if this process stops-one reason is that there is still a big int rate difference between aud,gbp,nzd,zar,usd versus jpy and chf,and that the jpy int rate move looks like it won`t have a continuous following on a quarter by quarter basis since data from japanese economy is not strong enough to support a continuous increase in int rates-the reversals will be sudden and fast...MY PERSONAL OPINION is that we are now in a very dangerous area..any comments by BOJ officials can create panic/greed moves..so,switch to the double 1h/4h tfs for analysis...
Try to do this kind of thinking..presume you are a hedge fund,working on leverage,so you invest 10 billion dollars of which 1billion is "yours" and 9 billion you can take on credit in any currency you want,you have to put this money(fund money+credit taken) somewhere..
Where would you put it?which currency would you use for funding?
Until now the mechanics were something like:
1-you took the jpy equivalent of 9blln $ on credit at 1.5/2% interest and invested them plus your 1blln $ at 4%-7% on fixed income assets in usd,gbp,aud,nzd,zar...do the math and calculate the return on your 1billn$ fund equity..add into the equation that jpy depreciated 10/20% per year,so,your actual cost of capital was negative..ok,you are running a currency exchange risk,but so what,running risks is your job
2-Same as above but you invested in European stock exchanges,USA stock exchanges,"developing markets" stock exchanges(check the evolution of the brazilian real and of the brazilian stock exchange from 2004 to 2006 as an example of a double whammy)
3-Mix of 1 and 2 above
What are you going to do now?
Are you going to fund your investing business with credits in gbp,usd,etc at 6 or 7% int rate?To invest in japanese fixed income?I don`t think so..to invest in japanese stock exchanges..mmm possible the investing in japan stocks..but funding at 6/7%..not probable..etc,etc,
There are many alternatives..and one of them is going to be the one to make a lot of money..there is a lot of thinking to be done..
And remember always JM Hurst`s definition of trend..the longest cycle at work,so,when in doubt,switch to a higher tf..
Regards
Simba
Hi,Simba!
Hello! Thank's for your nice indi,Simba.
I have some trouble with ConMan. I have two accounts, demo and real from Fibogroup. And ,surprisingly, SimbaConMan looks diffrently at them. At real account its looks like original, but at demo its diffrent. Maybe, because at demo account I downloaded 7 years historical data for few pairs? Could it be a problem and wich one indi should I follow?
Cheers.
I am from Siberia, now so damn cold!
i just cant think upside down so there is an invert switch in simba
Actually it was easier to place it into a Multi time frame version
just for fun....
the fixed refers to the multi time frame fix not simba
you will need simba at least in the custom indicators - not loaded onto charts
pupsik
Hello! Thank's for your nice indi,Simba.
I have some trouble with ConMan. I have two accounts, demo and real from Fibogroup. And ,surprisingly, SimbaConMan looks diffrently at them. At real account its looks like original, but at demo its diffrent. Maybe, because at demo account I downloaded 7 years historical data for few pairs? Could it be a problem and wich one indi should I follow?
Cheers.
I am from Siberia, now so damn cold!Hi Pupsik,
Use either the one at real account,or even better,consider it when both agree,the differences in the indicator depend on data stream,so when they both agree you have a trend/trend in the making independent of minor nuances in data..
The markets will give you some heat..;)
Simba
Perky
i just cant think upside down so there is an invert switch in simba
Actually it was easier to place it into a Multi time frame version
just for fun....
the fixed refers to the multi time frame fix not simba
you will need simba at least in the custom indicators - not loaded onto chartsHi Perky,
Thanks,very interesting,seems to work very well,please see attached..
Thanks again and regards
Simba
Perky
i just cant think upside down so there is an invert switch in simba
Actually it was easier to place it into a Multi time frame version
just for fun....
the fixed refers to the multi time frame fix not simba
you will need simba at least in the custom indicators - not loaded onto chartsHi Perky(again
),
An interesting idea,just take a look at my previous pic with your mtf version..a question comes into my mind....
Is it possible to create/modify an indicator to be able to have a mtf composite simbaconman? Visually what it should do is to add the 2(n...2 in the example) different tfs cycles and create a cycle which is just the sum of all the represented cycles?(in the example 4h,and d1)..so,in a h1chart we could represent the composite of h1+h4+d1...which will probably be a much better predictor than each single cycle by itself....or not,but at least we tried
think about it..
Simba
Hi Malcik,
Go to the 4h tf for analysis,as you said.. there were false 1h chandelier entries,so,it is better to analyze on 2 tfs minimum..wait a few days and possibly the situation will be clearer,if it isn`t...don`t enter
There is a fundamental reason behind these moves and this is the unwinding of carry trades..if this process is going to continue..the upmoves for jpy and chf will continue..if this process stops-one reason is that there is still a big int rate difference between aud,gbp,nzd,zar,usd versus jpy and chf,and that the jpy int rate move looks like it won`t have a continuous following on a quarter by quarter basis since data from japanese economy is not strong enough to support a continuous increase in int rates-the reversals will be sudden and fast...MY PERSONAL OPINION is that we are now in a very dangerous area..any comments by BOJ officials can create panic/greed moves..so,switch to the double 1h/4h tfs for analysis...
Try to do this kind of thinking..presume you are a hedge fund,working on leverage,so you invest 10 billion dollars of which 1billion is "yours" and 9 billion you can take on credit in any currency you want,you have to put this money(fund money+credit taken) somewhere..
Where would you put it?which currency would you use for funding?
Until now the mechanics were something like:
1-you took the jpy equivalent of 9blln $ on credit at 1.5/2% interest and invested them plus your 1blln $ at 4%-7% on fixed income assets in usd,gbp,aud,nzd,zar...do the math and calculate the return on your 1billn$ fund equity..add into the equation that jpy depreciated 10/20% per year,so,your actual cost of capital was negative..ok,you are running a currency exchange risk,but so what,running risks is your job
2-Same as above but you invested in European stock exchanges,USA stock exchanges,"developing markets" stock exchanges(check the evolution of the brazilian real and of the brazilian stock exchange from 2004 to 2006 as an example of a double whammy)
3-Mix of 1 and 2 above
What are you going to do now?
Are you going to fund your investing business with credits in gbp,usd,etc at 6 or 7% int rate?To invest in japanese fixed income?I don`t think so..to invest in japanese stock exchanges..mmm possible the investing in japan stocks..but funding at 6/7%..not probable..etc,etc,
There are many alternatives..and one of them is going to be the one to make a lot of money..there is a lot of thinking to be done..
And remember always JM Hurst`s definition of trend..the longest cycle at work,so,when in doubt,switch to a higher tf..
Regards
SimbaHi Simba,
Thanks for your comments. How do you perform analysis on H4 TF? Is it just Chandelier that you watch and trade in direction of or do you also watch cycles using SMAs on this TF?
Im not sure if a composite would help as you would lose the "wave" formations
i mean if i was using the 1 hour chart the pink is 4 hour and the blue is one hour
for a safe trade id only trade when both "slopes " face the same direction
I mean you are waiting alot longer for trades but they would be alot safer
this could be the holy grail!!!!!
:-)
I use the 30 min chart myself