• Sign up >>

Deriving a conclusion? - page 2

To add comments, please log in or register
drg00dvibe
590
drg00dvibe  

Summary P/L: 39.00

Winning trades: (6) 561.00

Losing trades: (15) -522.00

Max summary P/L: 225.00

Largest winning trade: 100.00

Largest losing trade: -100.00

Max consecutive winners: 2 (200.00)

Max consecutive losers: 7 (-243.00)

Max consecutive profit: 200.00 (2)

Max consecutive loss: -243.00 (7)

Absolute drawdown: *

Max drawdown: 282.00 (5.40%)

Profit factor: 1.07

Avg. profit factor: 2.69

Risk factor: 0.14

Quick question what is the Profit factor, Av. Profit factor, and Risk factor based on? How are these numbers calculated?

These statements are very useful, I was thinking of looking at using "portfolio theory" in order to come up with something that may help minimize risk depending on the size of an account. A person who has a $1000 accnt cannot withstand a great deal of risk/drawdown which would mean that they would either require mini lots, or decreased risk.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  
drgoodvibe:
Summary P/L: 39.00

Winning trades: (6) 561.00

Losing trades: (15) -522.00

Max summary P/L: 225.00

Largest winning trade: 100.00

Largest losing trade: -100.00

Max consecutive winners: 2 (200.00)

Max consecutive losers: 7 (-243.00)

Max consecutive profit: 200.00 (2)

Max consecutive loss: -243.00 (7)

Absolute drawdown: *

Max drawdown: 282.00 (5.40%)

Profit factor: 1.07

Avg. profit factor: 2.69

Risk factor: 0.14

Quick question what is the Profit factor, Av. Profit factor, and Risk factor based on? How are these numbers calculated?

These statements are very useful, I was thinking of looking at using "portfolio theory" in order to come up with something that may help minimize risk depending on the size of an account. A person who has a $1000 accnt cannot withstand a great deal of risk/drawdown which would mean that they would either require mini lots, or decreased risk.

All the options in these "new" statements are the same with normal statements. The scripts are generating these figures using the Account History. These scripts were created by Igorad. We may ask him what exact meaning of it.

As to $1,000 so it is difficult to use any portfolio with this size of deposit. Too small. Micro-lots may be ...

And about the risk I want to say the following. I am not ready for Excell sheet. Not because some other websites and people are doing it somewhere. Because it is too mechanically. Read this post: i am author or active participant of the development of the almost all EAs testing here and I have the same problem: it is very difficult to create portfolio when you know that somebody will use it with real money. Very difficult psychologically (there is psychological barrier).

To use it with real money we need to understand/feel this EA. And each EA was the result of the difficult and long-term development. I started to explain more about each EA: Mandarine EAs were explained already here. All Brainwashing threads will be moved today to the special section here. I will continue it with other EAs.

There is the other psychological barrier concerning portfolio.

For example some person is having tea-room, internet cafe, consulting company and travell agency (just an example only). And this person is thinking that if the profit from one business is reduced he will be in profit anyway because he has 4 businesses (with different possible profit level and risk level).

And our example with forex.

We have (let's say) 4 EAs. Different EAs. Somebody (or some group of people or governments) are doing some business with the forex and because of that the price is moving (not because of us). Right? Right. But we want to participate in it taking the profit. And we may have this postfolio as well. But problem is the following:

- in our first example the person is running these tea-room, internet cafe, consulting company and travell agency and he may have portfolio and can estimate his own risk (because he is running it).

- in our second example we are not running anything. Somebody (or governments, or banks, or whatever) is running it (in other words, the price in MetaTrader's charts is moving not because of us). Not we are. Right? Right. So it is very difficult to estimate the real risks in the business we are not fully involved in.

And it is psychological barrier as well.

And to estimate the portfolio we need to "predict" the price movements.

There are two ways to do it:

- just call to somebody who (if we know exactly) will move the price timorrow for example; or

- create analytical service and analysts will tell us the possible price direction with full explanation.

If we have analytical service (or analytical charts or any) together with the full information about EAs and trades so it may be enough for the portfolio and for the estimation of the risks.

drg00dvibe
590
drg00dvibe  
newdigital:
All the options in these "new" statements are the same with normal statements. The scripts are generating these figures using the Account History. These scripts were created by Igorad. We may ask him what exact meaning of it.

As to $1,000 so it is difficult to use any portfolio with this size of deposit. Too small. Micro-lots may be ...

And about the risk I want to say the following. I am not ready for Excell sheet. Not because some other websites and people are doing it somewhere. Because it is too mechanically. Read this post: i am author or active participant of the development of the almost all EAs testing here and I have the same problem: it is very difficult to create portfolio when you know that somebody will use it with real money. Very difficult psychologically (there is psychological barrier).

To use it with real money we need to understand/feel this EA. And each EA was the result of the difficult and long-term development. I started to explain more about each EA: Mandarine EAs were explained already here. All Brainwashing threads will be moved today to the special section here. I will continue it with other EAs.

There is the other psychological barrier concerning portfolio.

For example some person is having tea-room, internet cafe, consulting company and travell agency (just an example only). And this person is thinking that if the profit from one business is reduced he will be in profit anyway because he has 4 businesses (with different possible profit level and risk level).

And our example with forex.

We have (let's say) 4 EAs. Different EAs. Somebody (or some group of people or governments) are doing some business with the forex and because of that the price is moving (not because of us). Right? Right. But we want to participate in it taking the profit. And we may have this postfolio as well. But problem is the following:

- in our first example the person is running these tea-room, internet cafe, consulting company and travell agency and he may have portfolio and can estimate his own risk (because he is running it).

- in our second example we are not running anything. Somebody (or governments, or banks, or whatever) is running it (in other words, the price in MetaTrader's charts is moving not because of us). Not we are. Right? Right. So it is very difficult to estimate the real risks in the business we are not fully involved in.

And it is psychological barrier as well.

And to estimate the portfolio we need to "predict" the price movements.

There are two ways to do it:

- just call to somebody who (if we know exactly) will move the price timorrow for example; or

- create analytical service and analysts will tell us the possible price direction with full explanation.

If we have analytical service (or analytical charts or any) together with the full information about EAs and trades so it may be enough for the portfolio and for the estimation of the risks.

You are very right, it does take a great deal of confidence in the EA's to withstand a few large drawdowns and let the programs keep running as they would normally.

I wanted to look at the statements only becuase we can still use that data to approximate what risk would be. Sure we cannot see the future, and be able to tell what losses or wins we would get, but using the data you have already compiled, you can approximate, almost like back testing an EA.

I guess the whole reason as to why I wanted to take a look at each statment and do some calculations was to find out what the exact minimum size of a mini account should be to run the top 3 EAs for the top 5 Currency pairs.

And should you have less then the total minimum trading amount for the top 3 EAs for the top 5 currency pairs, can you lower the currency pair to 4 and use a smaller trading account? Or would it minimize risk to trade 2 EAs for 6 currency pairs? And if so, which ones?

This information is the last bit of information needed to get started with live trading.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  
drgoodvibe:
You are very right, it does take a great deal of confidence in the EA's to withstand a few large drawdowns and let the programs keep running as they would normally.

I wanted to look at the statements only becuase we can still use that data to approximate what risk would be. Sure we cannot see the future, and be able to tell what losses or wins we would get, but using the data you have already compiled, you can approximate, almost like back testing an EA.

I guess the whole reason as to why I wanted to take a look at each statment and do some calculations was to find out what the exact minimum size of a mini account should be to run the top 3 EAs for the top 5 Currency pairs.

And should you have less then the total minimum trading amount for the top 3 EAs for the top 5 currency pairs, can you lower the currency pair to 4 and use a smaller trading account? Or would it minimize risk to trade 2 EAs for 6 currency pairs? And if so, which ones?

This information is the last bit of information needed to get started with live trading.

All the statements from the beginning of the testing are upleaded weekly (by pairs) and posted in the respective threads regularly, for example:

- Scalp_net;

- Brainwashing EAs;

- Mandarine

and so on.

As to good combination of EAs ...

You may use EA for one pair for example. Because all the statements are generated by pairs (not all together). I just look at the total results and for some EAs ...

As to combination ...

All EAs may work all together in one Metatrader.

So I don't think it will be a problem.

We modified some of them to work all together.

If not - we will modify it once again. It is not a problem.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  

Just my thinkings after the almost 3 months testing.

Please note that everything may be changed and this my opinion can not be a reason to use any EA with real money and not a reason of any possible losses (because it is 3 months testing only).

I have my names of EAs. Some EA is "small boy" for me, the other one is "oligarch" (please don't smile). All the EAs are like human beings for me.

Brainwashing 1c. M15 timeframe, 8-18 timefilter is not very risky EA. It may be used for one or two pairs. You can not lose a lot using this EA. It is the total leader. But it is not very profitable. Just to have some profit. I call this EA as "scholar".

Scalp_net EA may be profitable but with some brokers. And I have no idea about this EA with IBFX. Stop loss is 100 pips. So if somebody will use this EA i recommend to select the broker first and test it on your particular broker (or ask here in Scalp_net thread in this section). It is "teenager".

GoldWarrior02b. It was profitable during the testing. Because it was programmed to be profitable. You need to have big deposit to use this EA. Probably it is possible to use it for one pair. Sometimes you may have 8 opened orders for 4 pairs and all the open orders like this: -250, -60, -150; +130 and so on. And almost all the orders may be closed in profit (finally). This EA is openning the order on every signal. It is "long play" EA: if you get the profit from this EA so it will not be in one or two weeks. One month or more. I call this EA as "oligarch": if you use this EA it means that you have enough deposit size to do it.

Firebird v0.65 with/without timefilter may be very profitable but you may lose a lot as well. It is necessary to understand and to know the market condition to know when to use this EA. This EA is "child" for me (you should be good "father" to use it).

Mandarine EAs. You need to try to test this EA to understand it and to know how the stop loss is moving. I call it "old man". Slowly slowly. You may loose some pips and win many as well. It is "long play" EA as well: difficult to receive some profit for one or two weeks (it should be one month or more).

easyLMA_v6 is a "policeman" for me: when 55 EMA is crossing 200 EMA (with some filters) ... It is "long play" EA as well. This EA is re-acting on the particular market condition.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  

TSD_MT4_MR_Trade_0_25 EA is "a king" for me. I have opinion that it is necessary to understand when to use it (i mean to use it when some market condition will be expected to be meet). But it is my opinion only.

I may continue with this funny explanation.

It is my feeling during the testing.

drg00dvibe
590
drg00dvibe  
newdigital:
Just my thinkings after the almost 3 months testing.

Please note that everything may be changed and this my opinion can not be a reason to use any EA with real money and not a reason of any possible losses (because it is 3 months testing only).

I have my names of EAs. Some EA is "small boy" for me, the other one is "oligarch" (please don't smile). All the EAs are like human beings for me.

Brainwashing 1c. M15 timeframe, 8-18 timefilter is not very risky EA. It may be used for one or two pairs. You can not lose a lot using this EA. It is the total leader. But it is not very profitable. Just to have some profit. I call this EA as "scholar".

Scalp_net EA may be profitable but with some brokers. And I have no idea about this EA with IBFX. Stop loss is 100 pips. So if somebody will use this EA i recommend to select the broker first and test it on your particular broker (or ask here in Scalp_net thread in this section). It is "teenager".

GoldWarrior02b. It was profitable during the testing. Because it was programmed to be profitable. You need to have big deposit to use this EA. Probably it is possible to use it for one pair. Sometimes you may have 8 opened orders for 4 pairs and all the open orders like this: -250, -60, -150; +130 and so on. And almost all the orders may be closed in profit (finally). This EA is openning the order on every signal. It is "long play" EA: if you get the profit from this EA so it will not be in one or two weeks. One month or more. I call this EA as "oligarch": if you use this EA it means that you have enough deposit size to do it.

Firebird v0.65 with/without timefilter may be very profitable but you may lose a lot as well. It is necessary to understand and to know the market condition to know when to use this EA. This EA is "child" for me (you should be good "father" to use it).

Mandarine EAs. You need to try to test this EA to understand it and to know how the stop loss is moving. I call it "old man". Slowly slowly. You may loose some pips and win many as well. It is "long play" EA as well: difficult to receive some profit for one or two weeks (it should be one month or more).

easyLMA_v6 is a "policeman" for me: when 55 EMA is crossing 200 EMA (with some filters) ... It is "long play" EA as well. This EA is re-acting on the particular market condition.

Very interesting comments, I guess the reason why we would use all these EAs at once is to reduce risk and maximize profit by diversifying. However now what would be the minimum size account to use these EA's a few of them or all of them?

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  
drgoodvibe:
Very interesting comments, I guess the reason why we would use all these EAs at once is to reduce risk and maximize profit by diversifying. However now what would be the minimum size account to use these EA's a few of them or all of them?

It may be $1,000 for example. I do not know.

If I want to deposit less than 500 I will choose Light Forex (they are having the deposit in cents so $200 is 20,000 deposited in MetaTrader), or I will use micro lots (0.01 or 0.02 for example) with IBFX, Neurimex and many others.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  

Money management calculator

Well.

I think this indicator will help to understand what the Money Management (MM) is.

Just open demo account with the desirable deposit size, unput desirable risk in the indicator, price to open the order (for example) and price for stop loss (for example). And read comments on the chart.

It is indicator (not script).

You may use this indicator to analyze the statements and to estimate your own risk size:

- you know stop loss value (any, from the statements);

- you may know the price when the order was opened (from the statements as well) - it should be connected with stop loss of course (the same order);

- your deposit size - open demo account with your desirable deposit size.

- input your desirable risk size (any), you may do it many times.

Read all the information from the chart (it will be written).

Michael B
3377
Michael B  

I think the current EA of EA's that is being worked on...relates to this thread. I just wanted to acknolwledge that there seems to have been a need and an interest for this current exciting project way before I joined here...

good luck to us!

ES

12
To add comments, please log in or register