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Deriving a conclusion?

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drg00dvibe
590
drg00dvibe  

So it has been almost a full 3 months now since testing began on January 8.

And here are the results as posted on the total leaders thread.

Total winners from the beginning of the testing:

EURUSD:

1. - Scalp_net with 472 pips.

- GoldWarrior02b with 445 pips.

2. Envelope 2.11 with 304 pips.

3. - Mandarine with/without timefilter with 210/317 pips.

- DayTrading3 with/without timefilter 102/143 pips

4. Brainwashing 1c. M15 timeframe, 8-18 timefilter with 109 pips.

GBPUSD:

1. Brainwashing 1c. M15 timeframe, 8-18 timefilter with 184 pips.

2. DayTrading3 with/without timefilter 160/206 pips.

3. - GoldWarrior02b with 167 pips.

- easyLMA_v6 with 138 pips.

USDJPY:

1. - GoldWarrior02b with 729 pips.

- Firebird v0.65 with/without timefilter 417/252 pips.

2. - Mandarine with 244 pips.

- Scalp_net_v1.2 with 191 pips.

3. - StepMAExpert_v1.1_mod with 184 pips.

- Brainwashing 1c. H4 timeframe with 151 pips.

4. FiboPivotandRSI with 146 pips.

5. StepMAExpert_v1.4 with 127 pips.

6. easyLMA_v6 with 114 pips.

USDCHF:

1. - Mandarine with/without timefilter 124/209 pips.

- Firebird v0.65 with timefilter with 123 pips.

2. - Brainwashing 1c, H1 timeframe with 52 pips.

- Brainwashing 1c. M15 timeframe, 8-18 timefilter with 23.

3. DayTrading3, timefilter with 27 pips.

AUDUSD:

1. Scalp_net_v1.2 with 95 pips.

2. TSD_MT4_MR_Trade_0_25 with 108 pips.

3. easyLMA_v6 with 36 pips.

USDCAD:

1. GoldWarrior02b with 65 pips.

2. easyLMA_v6 with 46 pips.

3. N/A.

GBPJPY:

1. Scalp_net_v1.2 with 247 pips.

2. N/A.

3. N/A.

GBPCHF:

1. N/A.

2. N/A.

3. N/A.

6171 pips in total (first 3 places only).

What conclusions can we derive from this? Does this show that without a doubt you can derive a profit using all the EA's?

Sure one EA may have a bad week, but other EAs compensate, just as long as the total pip result is still in a profit. We can see that they are, in a sense diversifying your EA portfolio one will maxmize the total profits. Now that we know which EAs are most profitable, anyone else going to be using this method in live trading? My intention is to open a micro account and find out. Just wondering if anyone else already has tried this.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  

I posted the statements as well in the EAs' thread. And weekly pips for each EA.

I need some suggestion what is the better result designing the members need?

It may be like this:

EA ... 125 pips (+34)

it means 125 totally including 34 for this week (or -34 for example).

Or you need portfolio?

Who will estimate this portfolio?

I can do it (estimate some EAs which can work together and should work together with some explanation) because I am looking on the trades and I know EAs which I am testing.

I am testing it.

But seems nobody asked me about anything and I'm already trying to answer.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  

I wanted to say that I am testing it and I am producing results and having my opinion about each EA (because i want to use something with real money as well). If we are not speaking between each other nothing will be happened.

drg00dvibe
590
drg00dvibe  

If we were to look at conclusion using moderm portfolio theory, then we need to calculate what would be the best number of EA's (and which EA's in particular) to maximize profit with the most minimum risk.

We would have to compare the below for each EA:

maximum drawdowns

total gross profits

weeks total won vs weeks total lost

In essence we would have to locate the best combination of EA's for best profit with lowest risk.

I would imagine that a combination of EAs that has a large total gross profit, but large drawdowns and a large number of weeks total lost would be a much riskier portfolio thereby requiring much more funds to withstand.

So we would need to look at each EA and give it a specific percentage for the below, and answer these specific questions.

1) How high or low are the drawdowns?

2) How much are gross profits, are they high enough to warrant using this EA, or can we choose another from the mix that has higher profits.

3) Do the drawdowns hit a margin call on a say $1000 account for a mini account.

4) How many EA's can we run at once, on a mini account before hitting a margin call.

I would imagine these are only some of the answers that we would need to answer if we were looking at these EAs in a diversified portfolio manner.

drg00dvibe
590
drg00dvibe  
newdigital:
I wanted to say that I am testing it and I am producing results and having my opinion about each EA (because i want to use something with real money as well). If we are not speaking between each other nothing will be happened.

I completely agree! I think you have good data, and now it's time to put together an exact method to implementing the EA's you have been using. Your data shows that these EAs used together are profitable, now we need to see if they will be just as profitable in a mini account and minimize risk! Minimizing risk will be the most important thing we do now.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  

Ok.

Thanks.

I will think how to do it.

maximum drawdowns

total gross profits

weeks total won vs weeks total lost

So it should be weekly?

Some EAs are not ready for weekly results you know.

May be monthly?

But we have it from the statements (for example):

Summary P/L: 22.00

Winning trades: (13) 430.00

Losing trades: (5) -408.00

Max summary P/L: 188.00

Largest winning trade: 100.00

Largest losing trade: -100.00

Max consecutive winners: 5 (47.00)

Max consecutive losers: 1 (-100.00)

Max consecutive profit: 131.00 (3)

Max consecutive loss: -100.00 (1)

Absolute drawdown: *

Max drawdown: 266.00 (8.34%)

Profit factor: 1.05

Avg. profit factor: 0.41

Risk factor: 0.08

But, may be we need to orginized everything in one or two post, or i need to start the new thread about this combination of EAs.

Please don't leave me alone (quite alone) with this problem, ok?

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  

But i may say the following: I am testing it during the about 3 months and i feel the risk and feel each EA already. And this my opinion (feeling let's say) is not a statement. But I may figurize everything.

Need to think how to do it because we have everything in the statements.

It should be some risk for combination of EAs (not for one EA).

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114712
Sergey Golubev  

Well.

I need it as well and personally i am in the same position with everybody.

Tomorrow I will think about it.

drg00dvibe
590
drg00dvibe  
newdigital:
Ok.

Thanks.

I will think how to do it.

So it should be weekly?

Some EAs are not ready for weekly results you know.

May be monthly?

But we have it from the statements (for example):

Summary P/L: 22.00

Winning trades: (13) 430.00

Losing trades: (5) -408.00

Max summary P/L: 188.00

Largest winning trade: 100.00

Largest losing trade: -100.00

Max consecutive winners: 5 (47.00)

Max consecutive losers: 1 (-100.00)

Max consecutive profit: 131.00 (3)

Max consecutive loss: -100.00 (1)

Absolute drawdown: *

Max drawdown: 266.00 (8.34%)

Profit factor: 1.05

Avg. profit factor: 0.41

Risk factor: 0.08

But, may be we need to orginized everything in one or two post, or i need to start the new thread about this combination of EAs.

Please don't leave me alone (quite alone) with this problem, ok?

Definitely won't leave you alone on this one NewDigital, it seems like a big project to take all those sheets and crunch the numbers. I can take the statements like the one above, and put them in Excel. Using excel with I can come together with some numbers that would be of use, that would answer the questions that we need to answer to come up with the best portfolio.

drg00dvibe
590
drg00dvibe  
newdigital:
But i may say the following: I am testing it during the about 3 months and i feel the risk and feel each EA already. And this my opinion (feeling let's say) is not a statement. But I may figurize everything.

Need to think how to do it because we have everything in the statements.

It should be some risk for combination of EAs (not for one EA).

I think the best way would be to analyze every EA, and derive a percentage of risk for each EA based on a minimum and maximum size mini account. Then we can use some portfolio theory and find the standard deviation.

I think it's important to do it weekly (on the EAs that we can do weekly) simply becuase for example several EAs hit their large drawdown at once, which would effectivly wipe out your entire account, hitting margin calls all over.

I will look into this, I will have to download every weekly statement! It's a big project, but I think it will be well worth it.

haubentaucher
228
haubentaucher  
drgoodvibe:
I think the best way would be to analyze every EA, and derive a percentage of risk for each EA based on a minimum and maximum size mini account. Then we can use some portfolio theory and find the standard deviation.

I think it's important to do it weekly (on the EAs that we can do weekly) simply becuase for example several EAs hit their large drawdown at once, which would effectivly wipe out your entire account, hitting margin calls all over.

I will look into this, I will have to download every weekly statement! It's a big project, but I think it will be well worth it.

Oh god, i don`t want to change with you!

Would it be possible to vizualize the results in charts to get a picture? What exactly could /should be shown for a better understanding I think will show the first exel sheeds

Thank you very much to you and also newdigital

12
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