CatFx50 - page 79
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Hi Nina
I notice that the 50 ma was crossed convincingly when the reports came out this morning (gmt)
http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?page=calendar&day=&week=1137974400&month=1&year=2006&timezoneoffset=g0
Up until then, price whipsawed around the 50 ma.
After the reports, price was along way away from the 50ma so probably too far away from it to enter.
Are you counting the big gains today as valid trades ?
thanksHi, Billm!!
I do not know how you wanna count them. Anyway, CatFX50 has "made" a lot of money once more. I mean, it has shown its potential again.
Nina
Hi!
Another chart.
Another tip.
And there are people that still say we should not look at USDCHF when we trade EURUSD.
Nina
it look like a cute think
Hi Nina,
Don"t let the frog get lost in the strawberry patch, we need her guidance!
Excellent posts once again!
I think I am starting to get the hang of it.
Thank you!
Nina I kind of liked the frog better, even though I love strawberrys, yummy with some whip cream.
Just my opinion anyway.
Pivot Indicator
Hi Nina and others in this thread, a warm 'hello' from West Australia,
Nina, I am most impressed with your strategy! I have read this thread from the beginning several times and understand how it works. It is so against my practice of trying to anticipate the intraday move from the consolidation periods that I put your strategy in the 'bin' at first.
I can no longer ignore it! I now have your MA50e on my 30 min charts!
My question is about the Pivot Indicator you have posted in your thumbnails, post 798. I have searched and found one in these pages, post 42, and ask if it is the same as the one you use? The one I downloaded is defaulted at 1440bars. I note also that we can adjust the periods. Would you be so generous and divulge your PP parameters? Thanks a million ( in US dollars ).
BTW, my efforts at 'anticipation' have been rather fruitless !!
My first post!
Hmmm, not sure I should even consider myself a newbie! So much to learn! And just getting my feet wet!
Anyway, as an end-all for the discussion of exit signal/strategy for the Nina System, maybe we can convice Nina to open a managed fund?! Then, we can all go about our lives while our monies grow 10 pips at a time!
I plan on actually installing the Nina System soon, to see if I can add any thing constructive to the exit discussion....
Lots of great members here!!!!
Hi Nina,
Just to continue from my last post. So many people here including me are very happy with the entry and yet so many diverse opinions on exits. I am sure lots of folks here are interested in the exits too. Without a proper exit strategy this system is only "half baked".
I had a cursory glance on the charts over last 2 months and I dont see a definite pattern to exploit as an exit. Sometimes it can trend for 2-3 days for about 200+pips (talking about cable) and most days it just crisscrosses about the 50EMA. Keeping aside hypothetical trades, we need to find a balance between those long trends and range bound days which we will loose the pips.
I simply dont think that over a long run trying for a 15-20pips for this system for a S/L of 35pips is going to work becoz of the R/R ratio.
You cannot take 1 step forward and 2 steps backward. You just arent getting anywhere.
As I suggested trying for a 70pips TP for a 35pip S/L is good. However maybe someone with programming skills can backtest what are the optimum exits.
70 pips is not optimum. Maybe 60 or 80 would work better, I am not sure.
Or we can just compare intraday trades with different exits to see what exits are working best.
This would require active participation from all the traders who trade this system. We just might be able to get this system complete with suitable exits.
Any help from fellow traders would be appreciated. Or any better suggestions.
Nina has done excellent job of bringing togather a good system, but unless the suitable exits is handled this thread too will join other systems which have started in a blaze and ended up in some corner of the fx forums.
Any of you think that a chat for trading this system live would be a good idea?
Thanks again
I simply dont think that over a long run trying for a 15-20pips for this system for a S/L of 35pips is going to work becoz of the R/R ratio.
This R/R thing is a myth, or at least it is poorly understood. The ratio between target and stop loss means nothing by itself. It doesn't show how profitable a system is. Take 2 systems, A and B. System A has a target of 100 pips and SL at 50, but it only wins 3 out of 10 times. System B has a target of 20 pips and SL at 100, but it wins 9 out of 10. Out of 10 trades, you would lose 50 pips using system A (with the "good" RR ratio) and win 80 using system B (with the "poor" RR ratio).
If Nina's entry is followed by a +10 pip move 6 times more often than a -30 pip move, then for every 7 trades you would make +60 - 30 = +30, a VERY good system in spite of the so called bad RR ratio. If, on the other hand, Nina's entry leads to -35 pips twice as often as it leads to +60, such a system would lose 10 pips for every 3 trades (on average of course), and it would be bad even though the RR ratio sounds good. This is just a theoretical example, I am not saying that it is the actual way Nina's system behaves.
The only way to determine the best settings is to test various pairs of RR on historical data, at least 50 trades. Then I suggest going to the simulator at http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html - please read the explanations there, enter the values for Win/Loss and Win Prob - and see what your expectations should be using the system.
Hi RadicalMoses
Just in reference to comments by keris, ( I am not looking for a fight here...lol)
No worries, mate. (A Mexican/Italian in the middle of California doesn't get to say that too often.
)
Most "traders" lose money because they don't know how to trade.
Emotions has nothing to do with discretion, just as it has nothing to do with a mechanical system. Emotions can affect both methods, but they are something totally separate.
Let me give you an example of Discretion. I'll use the IWCR "system" that has a popular following on the forum right now. IWCR seems to be fundamentally sound, but because the developers wanted to sell the 'system', they had to set hard and fast rules. Rules that don't always make sense when you just take a minute to see what price is actually doing. Let me show you what I mean. We'll assume that we have an Active Wave, that price has already closed inside the Retractment Channel, and it is now making it's way to the 75% line for a Long entry. All you're waiting for is for a full bar to close above the 75% line to enter (The Rule).
1. You get a full bar that closes above the 75% line. It's a doji, hanging man, shooting star, pinocchio bar, or any other strong Reversalbar. Why would you want to enter? It would be better to wait to see if price breaks above the high of the reversal bar before entering.
2. Price closes above the 75% line multiple times with some of them forming multiple tops. These multiple tops form shorterm overhead resistance. You finally get a full bar, a small inside bar, that closes above the 75% line. Why would you want to enter? Place a buy stop above the overhead resistance and enter on the breakout.
3. Multiples closes above the 75% line, but the bars are shrinking and forming some type of bearish pattern. You finally get a bar above the 75% line. Why would you enter? Wait for an upper breakout of the bearish pattern before entering.
4. Price slows down and starts bouncing around the 61.8% line, forming a small channel. A strong bullish bar breaks out of the channel, closing above the 75% line. The next bar is another bullish bar and the whole bar closes above the 75% line. By all means, jump on that trade. It's a good setup.
In all of those situations, by using discretion, you would have had a good reason for entering each trade, or for staying out of a trade. We used the IWCR Model, to give us good setups, but we used our discretion to make the final decision whether to pull the trigger and enter a trade.
It's just my opinion, but I think using a casino as a model for traders to follow is incorrect. The reason is that casinos make the rules, so they can make sure that every game has a positive expectation. We don't make the rules in trading. I think a better model for us traders to follow is that of the professional poker player. They know all the odds, and before making any decisions, they calculate those odds based on all the available information they have in front of them (whatever cards are visible to them). They know what their base chance of winning is, based on the cards in their hand. But, when it comes time to hold'em or fold'em, they don't just do what the odds tell them to do. They use their experience and their ability to read the other players, to make the final decision. They use their Discretion.
Please don't take any of this as criticism. I'm still very much a nube, myself. This is just based on what I've personally learned. Take a mechanical system that you believe could be successful (That's one possible way of doing things). Treat it as a Model, and not a set-in-stone system. Apply a little discretion based on price action, and then you have a chance to be a successful trader.
Please feel free to disagree. Like I said, this is just my opinion.
Keris