Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Dollar Index - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.31 05:23

Dollar Index: U.S. Personal Income and U.S. Pending Home Sales news event (adapted from the article)

  • "Personal income in the U.S. increased by slightly less than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday. The report said personal income rose by 0.3 percent in December after inching up by 0.1 percent in November. Economists had expected income to rise by 0.4 percent."
  • "NAR said its pending home sales index jumped 1.6 percent to 109.0 in December after tumbling by 2.5 percent to 107.3 in November. Economists had expected pending home sales to increase by 0.6 percent. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, "Pending sales rebounded last month as enough buyers fended off rising mortgage rates and alarmingly low inventory levels to sign a contract". "The main storyline in the early months of 2017 will be if supply can meaningfully increase to keep price growth at a moderate enough level for households to absorb higher borrowing costs," he added. "Sales will struggle to build on last year's strong pace if inventory conditions don't improve."


The Dollar Index M5 timeframe was bounced from 101 resistance level to below to 100.37 support level by 200 SMA reversal area to be crossing. For now, M5 timeframed price is located below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within 100.23/100.48 levels for the waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started.


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.03 16:42

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and S&P 500: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-02-03 13:30 GMT | [USD -Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD -Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities."

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EUR/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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S&P 500 M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.04 16:15

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "The forecast for the U.S. Dollar will remain as neutral for the week ahead. While near-term price action is bearish, the longer-term up-trend and justification for such continues to exist as the U.S. is still one of the few developed global economies even debating the prospect of higher rates at the moment."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.10 07:04

Dollar Index - waiting for the direction of the trend to be started (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.

If the price breaks 61.8 resistance to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the daily price breaks 99.56 support level to below on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.


  • "The three keys components that provided support were the Ichimoku Cloud base on the Daily Chart, which is comprised of the 50% retracement over the last 52 data periods. While price did break below the cloud technically, we did not see the lagging line (bright green) break into the cloud, and we did not see a strong move lower once price pierced the cloud, but rather price moved sideways before beginning this week’s retracement." 
  • "An eventual break below last week’s low of 99.23, followed by a lagging line move into and through the Ichimoku Cloud would be the clearest Ichimoku sign of a larger breakdown developing in DXY."
  • "A zone of resistance to watch on the bounce would also be the 38.2-61.8% retracement region of the 2017 move, which is housed at 100.99-102.07. The wost case for Bulls (best case for Bears) would be a move to this zone that pivots and breaks above the zone above. A break above the Fibonacci zone could be indicative that we've seen the low in the USD for a while." 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.16 14:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and Dollar Index: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-02-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

==========

From official report:

  • "The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a reading of 23.6 in January to 43.3 this month and has remained positive for seven consecutive months."

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EUR/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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USD/CAD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.18 16:22

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index"The US unit may build on Friday’s gains if the Fed ends up dominating the spotlight, stoking March rate hike possibilities. Dangling the prospect of a two-pronged tightening effort – raising front-end borrowing costs and reducing the weight of the balance sheet on the long end of the yield curve – may go a long way indeed. Unsettling news-flow from team Trump may shatter this rosy vision however."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.24 09:13

Dollar Index - ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition: price is located within 101.74 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 100.39 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.


"Recent DXY updates have noted that “if a broader decline is underway, then resistance probably needs to register (again) near the channel line that has been resistance and support since Brexit…the 55 day average is up here too.” Resistance is holding and a possible head and shoulders top is evident and would confirm on a drop under the February low. Even then, trendline support registers below 98.00. Watch for range support near 99.80."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 11:04

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "The week ahead will keep the same themes firmly in the spotlight. A busy docket of scheduled commentary from Fed policymakers is headlined by remarks from Chair Yellen and Governor Lael Brainard, a vocal dove. If she too is keen to get on with stimulus withdrawal, a hike in March will seem more likely. On the economic data front, a broad offering of activity indicators is expected to show steady progress in line with recent trends. A revised set of fourth-quarter GDP figures is projected to deliver an upgrade, nudging the on-year growth rate to 2.1 percent from the originally reported 1.8 percent. At face value, this seems like a generally supportive environment for the US currency. However, it may all prove for naught if fiscal considerations spoil the mood again. Whether or not that happens will depend on President Trump, who is due to address a joint session of Congress on Wednesday."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.27 15:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-02-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is -0.5%
  • forecast data is 1.6%
  • actual data is 1.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From rttnews article:

  • "The report said durable goods orders jumped by 1.8 percent in January after falling by a revised 0.8 percent in December."
  • "Excluding a sharp increase in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged down by 0.2 percent in January following a revised 0.9 percent advance in December."

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EUR/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


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NZD/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.03 11:28

Dollar Index - bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is testing 102.27 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging for the waiting for direction.


  • "This week, we’ve seen on the back of multiple Fed speakers the probability of a March Fed Hike surge from below 50% to ~90%. This has aligned cleanly with USD strength. "
  • "This week has seen impressive moves in favor of the USD against the British Pound, which looks like it could move back below 1.20 if we break 1.22. Additionally, USD/CAD is sitting at its highest level since the first week of trading in 2017 with a price move above 1.3400. Currently, support for USD/CAD sits near 1.325. Two other impressive moves have been registered by EUR/USD, which recently punched below 1.05 and USD/JPY that may soon make a move toward 116 if the price can close above the 55-DMA at 114.67. However, it’s difficult to get too excited below 114.96, which was the mid-February high, and could be Triangle Pattern Resistance."


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