Press review - page 51

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Analysis for USDCAD (based on Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal? article)

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, M15, 2013.11.29

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_29680.png

USDCAD, M15, 2013.11.29, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


  • USD/CAD closed above the 4th square root relationship of the September low on Wednesday to trade to its highest level since early July
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while above 1.0505
  • The 6th square root relationship of the 2Q13 high at 1.0610 is an important upside pivot with traction above exposing the 127% extension of the 2012 range at 1.0665
  • A medium-term cycle turn windown is seen around the 1st half of next week
  • Only a daily close below 1st square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.0505 would turn us negative on USD/CAD
Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal?
Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal?
  • Kristian Kerr
  • www.dailyfx.com
square root relationship of the 2Q13 high at 1.0610 is an important upside pivot with traction above exposing the 127% extension of the 2012 range at 1.0665 AUD/USD has rebounded sharply from just above the key support zone we highlighted on Tuesday. With the .9330 to .9360 area marking a convergence of several key Gann levels including...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Analysis for EURUSD (based on Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal? article)

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, W1, 2013.11.29

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_39264.png

EURUSD, W1, 2013.11.29, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


  • EUR/USD probed above the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3595 on Thursday to trade to its highest level in three weeks
  • A daily close over 1.3595 will shift our near-term trend bias to higher
  • Interim support is seen at 1.3540, but weakness under 1.3475 is really needed to signal that a more important decline is developing
  • The middle of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A daily close over 1.3595 will shift our near-term trend bias positive
Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal?
Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal?
  • Kristian Kerr
  • www.dailyfx.com
square root relationship of the 2Q13 high at 1.0610 is an important upside pivot with traction above exposing the 127% extension of the 2012 range at 1.0665 AUD/USD has rebounded sharply from just above the key support zone we highlighted on Tuesday. With the .9330 to .9360 area marking a convergence of several key Gann levels including...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Fundamental Analysis (adapted from dailyfx article)

Future price movements are often shaped by economic data. When the NFP number gets announced, or when the European Central Bank decides to cut rates; you’ll see this take place very quickly in numerous markets. Traders scramble to price in this ‘new’ information, and if the data was compelling enough, these prices changes can put in longer-term moves (new trends).
This type of thing happens in all markets; but what makes Foreign-exchange different is the realm of impact each of these data prints can bring.
The Complete Trading Approach
The Complete Trading Approach
  • www.dailyfx.com
Fundamental and technical analysis are of little value to the trader without risk management and a strong trading psychology. This article looks at the complete approach.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Analysis (adapted from dailyfx article)

For a few different reasons, Technical Analysis has a much more prominent role in FX as opposed to other markets. Surely, Technical Analysis is used by stock and futures traders; but in FX we’re dealing with entirely different subject matter.

As an example – a 10% movement in a day for a single stock can be considered a ‘great day.’ Movements of 5% or more are extremely common, especially when markets are pricing in new information (like earnings). Movements of 20% or more are less common, but they happen with regularity.

If a currency were to move 20% in a day, much bigger issues are at stake. In the above example, we looked at a 200+ pip movement in the EURUSD, which I described as ‘massive.’ And, in relative scope – this was a massive move.

But 200 pips in the EURUSD is really only about a 1.5% move

Technical Analysis is the art of using the chart, and past prices in an effort to find trade setups; so, technical analysis is really just a way of examining the past; and there are a lot of different ways of doing so.

The Complete Trading Approach
The Complete Trading Approach
  • James Stanley
  • www.dailyfx.com
Traders continue to flock to the Forex market in droves. Many of these traders are brand new to markets, and Foreign Exchange is the first venue they’ve looked at; while others are coming from equity or futures markets because the flexibility in FX make it more of a ‘pure trader’s market.’ Regardless of whether you’re just starting to trade...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

The Potent Combination of Fundamentals and Price Action (adapted from dailyfx article)



Fundamentals help shape future price movements; and technical analysis can help explain past price movements. Between these two analytical systems, we can begin to focus on the highest-probability strategies and setups.

But this will not remove risk; and until a trader learns to manage their risk, the probability of profitability (long-term) will remain miniscule – and because of that, Risk Management isn’t just a preference, it’s a necessity.

The Complete Trading Approach
The Complete Trading Approach
  • James Stanley
  • www.dailyfx.com
Traders continue to flock to the Forex market in droves. Many of these traders are brand new to markets, and Foreign Exchange is the first venue they’ve looked at; while others are coming from equity or futures markets because the flexibility in FX make it more of a ‘pure trader’s market.’ Regardless of whether you’re just starting to trade...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-29 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Mortgage Approvals]

  • past data is 66.891K
  • forecast data is 68.500K
  • actual data is 67.701K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

Pound Ticks Down Following U.K. Mortgage Approvals

The U.K. mortgage approvals data for October has been released at 4.30 am ET Friday. The pound edged down against other major currencies after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.6340 against the greenback, 167.25 against the yen, 1.4795 against the franc and 0.8329 against the euro around 4:32 am ET.

Bank of England | Statistics | Statistical Release Calendar
Bank of England | Statistics | Statistical Release Calendar
  • www.bankofengland.co.uk
This area of the site enables you to view historical statistical releases as well as providing publication dates for future releases. Also included are release dates for the Quoted Rates series (these are available from our interactive database), UK Official Reserves Data and the Trends in Lending publication. Future dates not currently...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

AUDZND Technical Analysis (based on Australian Dollar Weakness versus Kiwi Could Mean Downtrend Continues article)

Talking Points

  • MACD Crossovers are used by Forex Traders to spot reversals in trend direction
  • Using trend direction to filter MACD signals can reduce the number of false signals
  • AUDZND has rallied to the top of a downtrend channel as the MACD line is crossing below its signal line generating a sell signal




Sometimes Forex traders do not want to trade currency pairs that are highly correlated to Europe, the US or Japan. Debt ceiling and US Fed “Taper Talk”, fast moving Yen pairs, Eurozone crisis; where can traders go to escape the excess volatility and headline driven markets?

The answer may lay south of the equator. The AUD/NZD also known as the “Aussie Kiwi” is not a fast mover but often displays very clear and predictable trends. Many traders like the slow and steady trends of AUDNZD.

AUD/NZD may be no speed “demon” with an average daily range of 74 pips. However, the “slow and steady” approach won the race for the turtle over the rabbit and this approach may make Aussie Kiwi a winner as well.

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The chart was made using Metatrader 5 with the following indicators:


Australian Dollar Weakness versus Kiwi Could Mean Downtrend Continues
Australian Dollar Weakness versus Kiwi Could Mean Downtrend Continues
  • www.dailyfx.com
AUD/NZD has rallied to a month long resistance line. Will it go higher or lower? MACD may hold the key
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis (based on dailyfx.com article)

Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Bullish

  • British Pound May Pay for Data-Driven Rally to 2-Year High
  • GBP/USD 2013 High in Focus at 1.6380; Breakout or Fakeout?




The technical outlook for the GBPUSD remains constructive as the bullish momentum in the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) gathers pace, and we may see a more meaningful move at 1.6400 (61.8% Fibonacci expansion) to 1.6420 (1.618% Fibonacci expansion) should the fundamental developments further the BoE’s case to normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule. In turn, we will retain our game plan to buy dips in the pound-dollar, but we could be looking for a correction (higher low) before the end of the year as the RSI approaches overbought territory.

GBP Poised to Clear 1.6400 as BoE Removes FLS- Key Themes for 2014
GBP Poised to Clear 1.6400 as BoE Removes FLS- Key Themes for 2014
  • www.dailyfx.com
The bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound may gather pace in December should the Bank of England (BoE) continue to show a greater willingness to implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

AUDUSD Fundamental Analysis (based on dailyfx.com article)

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Australian Dollar Fell for Sixth Consecutive Week, Fed QE “Taper” Bets the Culprit
  • US Economic News-Flow Likely to Trump the RBA Rate Decision in the Week Ahead



The week ahead offers plenty of top-tier US economic data releases to inform the evolution of this process. November’s ISM round-up, a revised set of third-quarter GDP figures and the all-important Employment report are all on tap. Outcomes that top economists’ forecasts are likely to encourage the rotation out of USD-funded carry and weigh threaten to push the Aussie lower, while those that fall short may offer the unit a lifeline after six consecutive weeks of selling.

On the domestic front, the year’s last RBA interest rate decision is unlikely to yield substantial policy innovations.
Aussie Dollar to Look Past RBA Meeting, Focus on US News-Flow
Aussie Dollar to Look Past RBA Meeting, Focus on US News-Flow
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Australian Dollar is likely to look past the year’s last RBA monetary policy announcement to focus on US economic data and its impact on Fed QE “taper” speculation.
Mirza Baig
2903
Mirza Baig  

Forum

Forex Weekly Outlook

Shunmas, 2013.12.01 12:30

Investing.com - The euro ended the week near one-month highs against the dollar on Friday and was close to five year highs against the yen, after data showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone rose more-than-expected in November, easing concerns over further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

Eurostat said the annual rate of consumer inflation rose by 0.9% in November, recovering from a four year low of 0.7% in October. Economists had forecast an annual increase of 0.8%. 

Another report showed that the euro zone unemployment rate fell to 12.1% in October, down from 12.2% in September, the first fall since February 2011. However, the youth unemployment rate in the region rose to record high of 24.4% in October.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3591, slightly below session highs of 1.3622. For the week, the pair gained 0.42%.

The euro ended the week 1.46% higher against the broadly weaker yen, with EUR/JPY settling at 139.21, the highest level since June 2009.

The yen remained under heavy selling pressure amid heightened expectations that the Bank of Japan will implement further stimulus measures in order to meet its target of 2% inflation by 2015.

On Wednesday, BoJ board member Sayuri Shirai raised doubts over whether the inflation target can be met because of downside risks to growth, adding that the bank was open to taking further steps if growth slows.

The dollar hit a six month high of 102.61 against the yen on Friday, the highest level since May 23. USD/JPY ended Friday’s session at 102.44. For the week, the pair was up 1.06%, the fifth consecutive weekly gain.

Elsewhere, the pound rose to 27-month highs against the dollar on Friday and climbed to five year highs against the yen. Sterling’s gains came after the Bank of England said Thursday it was rolling back stimulus to the U.K. housing market.

GBP/USD hit highs of 1.6383, the highest since late August 2011, before ending the session at 1.6367. The pair ended the week with gains of 1.24%.

Sterling ended the week 2.32% higher against the struggling yen, with GBP/JPY settling at 167.74, the highest level since October 2008.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to scale back its stimulus program at one of its next few meetings.

Meanwhile, rate decisions by the ECB, the BoE, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will also be in focus. 

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, December 2

Japan is to publish data on capital spending, a leading indicator of economic health.

Australia is to release data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity, as well as a report on company operating profits.

China is to release the final reading of its closely watched HSBC manufacturing PMI.

The euro zone is to release revised data on its manufacturing PMI, while Spain and Italy are also to release individual reports.

Switzerland is to publish the results of its SVME manufacturing PMI, and the U.K. is to release its manufacturing PMI.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington. Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.

Tuesday, December 3

Australia is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to produce data on the current account.

The RBA is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. 

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales, an important economic indicator.

In the euro zone, Spain is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed.

The U.K. is to release its construction PMI.

Wednesday, December 4

Australia is to release data on third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, while Spain and Italy are to publish their services PMI’s. 

The U.K. is also to publish its services PMI, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days.The Institute of Supply Management is to release its services PMI. The U.S is also to publish data on new home sales.

Both the U.S. and Canada are to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. 

Thursday, December 5

Australia is to publish data on the trade balance.

The BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Later in the day, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.

Canada is to publish data on building permits and the Ivey PMI.

The U.S. is to publish a revised estimate of third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish data on factory orders.

Friday, December 6

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

Switzerland is to release data on consumer inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

Germany is to release data on factory orders.

Canada is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.

The University of Michigan is to release the preliminary reading of its consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.