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Press review - page 82

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2013-01-31 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

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Canada grows 0.2% in November – USD/CAD breaks 1.12 – new 4 year record

Canada reported a growth rate of November as expected, following a solid 0.3% growth rate in October. GDP growth is reported once per month, contrary to most countries that publish these figures on a quarterly basis.

USD/CAD was trading on high ground towards the publication, at around 1.1190. The 1.12 level looms. USD/CAD now edges higher.

EURUSD breaks trendline support (based on dailyfx article)


  • EURUSD remains capped by the trendline that connects the 2008 and 2011 highs. The break below the trendline that extends off of the September and November lows increases the probability that the late December high is significant.
  • The late December failure also raises the possibility of a double top with the October and December highs. The pattern would trigger below 1.3294 and yield a 1.2757 objective. This level is in in line with the 2013 low.
  • 1.3550/70 is possible resistance next week. 1.3400 is possible support ahead of 1.3294.



GBPUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)



  • After trading to its highest level since April 2011 last week, GBPUSD carved a large outside day reversal. This is the kind of action that could lead to a larger top. Weakness below the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs and specifically 1.6308 would suggest as much.
  • 1.6400 remains potential near term support. 1.6500 is potential resistance next week.



AUDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)



The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067. Significant demand may not exist until this zone.

The market has followed through on the recent outside week. The implications are that the outside week serves as the ‘kick-off’ for the next leg of the bear.



NZDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)



  • The drop below .8100 shifts focus lower towards long term triangle support around .7800. Former support at .8200 is now estimated resistance.
  • Longer term trend remains sideways, possibly within the confines of a triangle (since 2011).



USDJPY Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)


  • USDJPY is respecting the gap from October 2008 at 105.30. This level and the outside day seen on January 2nd should at least warn of a pause in the uptrend.
  • USDJPY continues to hold the trendline that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013. As long as this line holds, it’s difficult to express a bigger picture bearish opinion although I’d also expect resistance at 103.85 in the event of a pop. 101.52 and 101.60 are levels to keep in mind as possible support if the trendline gives.
  • Longer term, there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.



USDCAD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)


  • Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
  • From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
  • The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.
  • 1.0950-1.1030 is estimated support.



EURUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)


Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish

  • Monetary policy concerns were stoked by record low inflation last week, and the ECB will deliberate on policy Thursday
  • Strong capital inflows into riskier Eurozone assets have yet to be reversed, but are imminently endangered by volatility

AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)


Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • RBA Rate Decision on Tap Domestically, Policy Statement in the Spotlight
  • Impact of US Data on QE Taper Bets, EM-Driven Risk Aversion Also Critical

GOLD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)


Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • FOMC Setups - EUR, CAD, Gold Eye Key Dollar Inflection Points
  • Gold at Risk of Failed Breakout; 1231 is Significant
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