Press review - page 67
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Majors (adapted from dailyfx article)
The Majors
When trading Forex, it is inevitable that traders will run across currencies known as “The Majors”. This term is in reference to the most frequently traded currencies in the world, with the list normally including the Euro (EUR), US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), Great British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), and Swiss Franc (CHF). See the graph below, and you will find a list of the Major currencies along with their associated country and ISO symbol.
The Symbol is how you will know exactly which currency you are trading when referencing a Forex Bid/Ask quote. However, it is also important to review each currencies nickname. These names will often come up in research and will be handy when communicating with other Forex traders.
Major Currency Pairs
Next we will take a look at currencies pairs that are considered “Major Pairs”. The Major Pairs are a reference to any of the major currencies listed above when paired with the USD. For example, the EURO is considered a major currency, but when paired with the USD (EUR/USD) the quote becomes a reference to a major pair.
Technical Analysis for GOLD (adapted from dailyfx article)
Gold prices are markedly higher this week with the precious metal rallying nearly 2% to trade at $1236 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes amid thin holiday trade with bullion rebounding off key support at $1179 ahead of the close of 2013 trade. Does this rally suggest that the beaten metal is turning the corner in 2014? The technicals suggest that in the near-term, that may be the case.
Next week traders will be closely eyeing the return of the US data stream with ISM non-manufacturing, factory orders, ADP employment, trade balance data and the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting all on tap ahead of the much anticipated NFP report on Friday. Non-farm payrolls are expected to show the addition of 193K jobs last month, slightly softer than the blowout 203K print seen in November, with the headline employment rate seen holding steady at 7.0%. Look for strengthening US data to limit advances in gold with our broader outlook remaining weighted to the downside below $1268/70.
Technical Analysis for AUDUSD (adapted from dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bullish
On the external front, the first critical consideration is the fate of China, Australia’s largest trading partner and a leading engine of demand for the country’s key mining sector. Economists’ baseline 2014 GDP growth expectations were revised higher a month ago (according to a survey of analysts polled by Bloomberg). Data outcomes from the East Asian giant began to improve compared with median forecasts over the same period and short-term lending rates have reversed sharply lower, with the 7-day Shibor benchmark fixed at a two-week low of 4.711 percent on Friday. All told, this makes for a broadly benign landscape.
The second key factor on the external side of the equation is the US monetary policy outlook. The Aussie has been closely anchored to US treasury yields, falling in lock-step with a rise in borrowing costs as the Fed began to “taper” its QE effort and drove liquidation across assets that had benefitted from the stimulus program.
2014 Predictions
Silver Imports
Silver plunged 36 percent in London last year and gold slid 28 percent, both the most since 1981, as some investors lost faith in the metals as a store of value. The U.S. Federal Reserve is slowing stimulus amid an improving economy and global equities reached the highest since 2007 this week. While investors sold bullion from gold-backed exchange-traded products, lower prices boosted jewelry, bar and coin demand from the U.S. to China.
“Some people took the opportunity of lower prices and bought remarkable amounts of gold and silver,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said today by phone. “Generally, prices are very attractive. Demand is very robust in Turkey and the Arab world as well.”
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos holds up the new Kindle Fire at a news conference during the launch of Amazon's new tablets in New York, Sept. 28, 2011.
Jeff Bezos is one of the most successful entrepreneurs out there, able to build a company deeply integrated into people's lives, all but ignoring Wall Street, and constantly looking toward the future.
But that doesn't mean he doesn't value other people's advice. In a post on LinkedIn, CNBC tech correspondent Jon Fortt said the Amazon CEO had three all-day book clubs for his senior managers over the summer.
In the recent book clubs, Bezos had those top executives read classics that helped him sketch out the future of his company. They are:
Weekly outlook: January 6 - 10
Monday, January 6
Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
The U.K. is to produce data on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.
The U.S. is to publish data on factory orders, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on service sector activity.
Tuesday, January 7
Australia is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
Germany is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer inflation.
The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.
Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish reports on the trade balance, while Canada is also to release a report on the Ivey PMI.
Wednesday, January 8
Germany is to release reports on the trade balance and factory orders. Meanwhile, the euro zone is to produce data on the unemployment rate and a separate report on retail sales.
The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days.
Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.
New Zealand is to publish data on building consents, a leading indicator of future construction activity.
Thursday, January 9
Australia is to publish data on building approvals, as well as a report on retail sales.
China is to publish data on consumer inflation.
The U.K. is to release data on the trade balance. Meanwhile, the BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
Later in the day, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
Germany is to publish data on industrial production.
Canada is to produce data on building permits and new house price inflation.
In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, January 10
Switzerland is to publish data on consumer inflation.
The U.K. is to release a report on industrial and manufacturing production, a leading indicator of economic health.
Canada is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.
The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Gold in 2014
Gold price set for ‘modest recovery’ in 2014
Gold is expected to see a “modest recovery’ in 2014 after last year’s dramatic decline in prices, according to market analysts. The precious metal lost nearly 30 percent of its value in 2013, its worst decline in decades. The end of the 12-year bull-run came ahead of the U.S. plan to reduce its monetary stimulus. Jeff Rhodes, founder and managing consultant for Rhodes Precious Metals Consultancy DMCC in Dubai, said that 2014 would be “a year of consolidation and modest recovery” in the gold market. “My feeling about 2014 is that you’re likely to see the market consolidate and stabilize,” Rhodes told Al Arabiya News.
“I see the market year-on-year higher than the end of 2013, but not dramatically so.” Rhodes said he forecasts an increase in the gold price of around 15 percent by the end of the year.
But other analysts said that the increase in gold could be short-lived. Edward Meir, metals analyst at brokerage INTL FCStone, told Reuters that a stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices could put pressure on the precious metal.
The first full trading week of 2014 brings a slew of company and economic news that is potentially sensitive for investors.
The U.S. jobs report on Friday will be the focus for many, but there is a rich seam of information for investors to mine before then, including Federal Reserve minutes, economic indicators, company earnings – and news from a big consumer electronics show in Las Vegas.=========
On the image :
Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer expected to be a keynote speaker at consumer electronics show in Las Vegas amid a hectic week for company and economic news
2014-01-06 08:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Services PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
==========
Spanish services PMI 54.2 vs. 51.5 forecast
Service sector activity in Spain rose unexpectedly last month, industry data showed on Monday.
In a report, Markit Finacial Information Services said that Spanish services PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 54.2, from 51.5 in the preceding month.