AUDUSD Technical Analysis 29.12 - 12.01: Ranging Bearish
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newdigital, 2013.12.29 18:08
AUDUSD Technical Analysis : December 30 - January 3
The Australian dollar slumped to a one-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as indications of an improving U.S. economy fuelled expectations of a further reduction in U.S. monetary stimulus.
Monday, December 30
The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.
Tuesday, December 31
Australia is to produce data on private sector credit.
Meanwhile,
the U.S. is to produce private sector data on consumer confidence and
house price inflation, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in
the Chicago region.
Wednesday, January 1
China is
to publish government data on manufacturing activity, a leading
indicator of economic health. The Asian nation is Australia’s largest
trade partner.
Markets in Australia and the U.S. will remain closed for the New Year’s holiday.
Thursday, January 2
China is due to release the final reading of its closely watched HSBC manufacturing PMI.
In
the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release its
manufacturing PMI, while the Labor Department is to release its weekly
report on initial jobless claims. The country is also to publish data on
construction spending.
Friday, January 3
The U.S. is to round up the week with official data crude oil stockpiles and natural gas inventories.
Week 1 - 8H Chart Update: Ranging Bearish since October High - Possible inversion once price cross orange Kumo in closing bar at 0.9093.
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newdigital, 2013.12.31 07:36
2013-12-31 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Private Sector Credit]
=========
Australia November Private Sector Credit +0.3%
Overall private sector credit in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent in November compared to the previous month, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Tuesday.
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newdigital, 2014.01.02 09:29
AUD/USD down in Asian trading hours
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar was down against the Euro and the Japanese Yen, with EUR/AUD gaining 0.36% to hit 1.5472 and AUD/JPY falling 0.28% to hit 93.67.
Bullish pattern for AUDUSD H1 (retracement) :
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Bullish pattern for AUDUSD H1 (retracement) :
If the price will break 0.8928 on H4 and especially 0.8969 on D1 timeframe - we may see ranging market condition with possible rally within primary bearish.
Seems - AUDUSD price is moved by itself irrespective off fundamental news events :) Price broke 0.8928 resistance on H4 and came to primary bullish with Ichimoku cloud/kumo to be below the price. Kumo is vety thin and because of that - the border of the cloud as s/r lines can not stop the price to go to any side. So, support/resistance for H4 are the following for now :
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 0.8992 | 0.8895 |
| -- | 0.8842 |
As to D1 timeframe so the situation is not changed so much - AUDUSD D1 did not break 0.8969 resistance on close D1 bar but we may see new s/r levels for D1 timeframe :
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 0.8951 | 0.8832 |
| 0.8957 | -- |
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newdigital, 2014.01.04 10:54
Technical Analysis for AUDUSD (adapted from dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bullish
- Stable RBA Outlook, Supportive Chinese News-Flow to Help Aussie Recover
- Firm US Data May Not Hurt Aussie as Markets Digest QE “Taper” Outlook
On the external front, the first critical consideration is the fate of China, Australia’s largest trading partner and a leading engine of demand for the country’s key mining sector. Economists’ baseline 2014 GDP growth expectations were revised higher a month ago (according to a survey of analysts polled by Bloomberg). Data outcomes from the East Asian giant began to improve compared with median forecasts over the same period and short-term lending rates have reversed sharply lower, with the 7-day Shibor benchmark fixed at a two-week low of 4.711 percent on Friday. All told, this makes for a broadly benign landscape.
The second key factor on the external side of the equation is the US monetary policy outlook. The Aussie has been closely anchored to US treasury yields, falling in lock-step with a rise in borrowing costs as the Fed began to “taper” its QE effort and drove liquidation across assets that had benefitted from the stimulus program.
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newdigital, 2014.01.05 12:07
Weekly outlook: January 6 - 10
Monday, January 6
Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
The U.K. is to produce data on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.
The
U.S. is to publish data on factory orders, while the Institute of
Supply Management is to release data on service sector activity.
Tuesday, January 7
Australia is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
Germany
is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer
spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity,
as well as data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer inflation.
The
Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency
reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size
of the bank’s operations in currency markets.
Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish reports on the trade balance, while Canada is also to release a report on the Ivey PMI.
Wednesday, January 8
Germany
is to release reports on the trade balance and factory orders.
Meanwhile, the euro zone is to produce data on the unemployment rate and
a separate report on retail sales.
The U.S. is to release the
ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s
nonfarm payrolls report by two days.
Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.
New Zealand is to publish data on building consents, a leading indicator of future construction activity.
Thursday, January 9
Australia is to publish data on building approvals, as well as a report on retail sales.
China is to publish data on consumer inflation.
The U.K. is to release data on the trade balance. Meanwhile, the BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
Later
in the day, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The
announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President
Mario Draghi.
Germany is to publish data on industrial production.
Canada is to produce data on building permits and new house price inflation.
In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, January 10
Switzerland is to publish data on consumer inflation.
The U.K. is to release a report on industrial and manufacturing production, a leading indicator of economic health.
Canada is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.
The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
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It is flat on D1 timeframe for the 10 days but the price is in bearish condition going to be continuing the primary bearish. On H4 timeframe - price is on bearish too trying to break 0.8868 support from above to below on open bar for now, and Chinkou Span line is breaking historical price for possible breakdown in the near future.
If the price will break 0.8868 on H4 and especially 0.8821 on D1 so we may see the bearish trend continuation.If the price will break 0.8928 on H4 and especially 0.8969 on D1 timeframe - we may see ranging market condition with possible rally within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-12-30 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Pending Home Sales]
2013-12-31 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Private Sector Credit]
2013-12-31 14:45 GMT (or 15:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Chicago PMI]
2013-12-31 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Consumer Confidence]
2014-01-01 01:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-01-01 22:30 GMT (or 23:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - AIG Manufacturing Index]
2014-01-02 01:45 GMT (or 02:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI]
2014-01-02 05:30 GMT (or 06:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Commodity Prices]
2014-01-02 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
2014-01-02 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2014-01-03 01:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on AUDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : bearish
Intraday Chart