AUDUSD Technical Analysis (adapted from this article).
Trading Strategy: Flat (trading long intraday) but looking higher towards .9167-.9267 for the next top.
EURUSD Technical Analysis (adapted from this article).
Trading Strategy: Flat but monitoring for resistance at 1.3745.
USDJPY Technical Analysis (adapted from this article).
Trading Bias: Flat but monitor for support if the market sees 102.50.
Long seems like a crowded arena so respect the potential for the rate to
overshoot into 101.50/60 (Dec 2013 low, Jul 2013 high, Apr 2009 high,
2005 low). Things could get worse if the S&P setup completes.
Outlook For Gold In 2014 (adapted from Forbes article)
Let’s take a look at the macro environment as we enter the new year:
Analysis for GBPUSD for the next coming week (adapted from this article).
Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Bearish
Australian Dollar to Rise Further as Markets Ponder Fed Outlook (adapted from this article)
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bullish
that the Australian Dollar has room to correct higher in early 2014 as
the fundamental argument for Aussie weakness becomes increasingly flimsy
while speculative traders remain heavily net-short (per futures market
positioning data from the CFTC). Absent new evidence to advance the case
against the currency, we said a period of profit-taking that drives the
Australian unit higher is probably ahead.
Silver Markets And Outlook (based on this article)
The $1.1 billion company, which calls itself the largest U.S.-based
primary silver producer, lost about $69 million over the past three
quarters, in a difficult commodities market. It notched annual losses
from 2008 to 2011, but recovered in 2011 and 2012. Edited excerpts from a phone conversation with Coeur CEO Mitchell Krebs follow. How
has the silver price decline in 2013 affected your business? (Silver
fell 36 percent in 2013, the second-worst performer among commodities
after corn, and worse still than gold’s much publicized 28 percent
“It’s the first time in a long time that the
industry had to deal with significant and sustained price declines,”
said Krebs. Before 2013 price declines, Coeur tried to maximize cash
flow by reducing operating costs and freeing up working capital.
What’s your outlook for silver in 2014? “I
think we’re going to see continued choppiness and a fairly sideways
silver price,” said Krebs. “Silver is a very volatile metal and will
probably see a range of $18 up to $23 per ounce, throughout the year …
Investors are trying to get a sense of global economy, whether there is
or isn’t any hint of inflation, or the X-factor of some crisis, a
political crisis or otherwise.”Silver prices are forecast by
London’s Capital Economics to hit $21.5 per ounce by the end of 2014, a
small gain from the present $19.7/oz. Silver typically trades in tandem
with gold, as the more influential yellow metal attracts heavier
investment and can drag down silver in its wake.
Technical analysis for GOLD (based on this article)
Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish
Expectations for a strong NFP report
had been building all week after ISM employment figures last week and a
robust APD private sector print this week topped consensus estimates. A
print of just 74K was well off expectations for a read of 196K+ and
although the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7% from 7%, the move was
largely a result of another massive contraction in the civilian labor
force. The loss of so called ‘discouraged workers’ has continued to put
artificial downside pressure on the headline unemployment figure with
the labor force participation rate falling back to 62.8%, its lowest
read since December (which was the lowest read since 1978).
From a technical standpoint, gold looks poised for a
move higher with a breach above $1248 targeting key resistance at
$1268/70. This region represents are more critical barrier and is
defined by a three-way Fibonacci confluence & the December high. A
compromise of this threshold constitutes a breakout of a larger
structure dating back to the October high threatens our broader
directional bias heading into 2014. Such a scenario looks for initial
resistance targets at $1293 and $1325. A break below the monthly opening
range low puts the broader trend back into focus with support targets
eyed at $1151/60, $1125 and $1091. It’s important to note that we’ve put
in a pretty clean monthly opening range, closing the week just below
near-term resistance. Look for a break of this range offer further
conviction on our corrective focus higher.
Weekly outlook: January 13 - 17 (based on this article)
Monday, January 13
Australia is to publish data on the number of new home loans granted, a strong indicator of demand in the housing market.
The Bank of Canada is to release its quarterly business outlook survey, a leading indicator of economic health.
Later Monday, New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.
Tuesday, January 14
Japan is to produce data on the current account.
The U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
The euro zone is to publish data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.
U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of
consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic
activity. The nation is also to release data on import prices and
Also Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia President Charles Plosser and Dallas Fed President Richard
Fisher are to speak.
Wednesday, January 15
Australia is to publish data on new vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.
Switzerland is to produce data on retail sales.
The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation and a report on manufacturing activity in the New York region.
Thursday, January 16
Japan is to release data on core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity.
is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and
the unemployment rate, as well as a private sector report on inflation
The euro zone is to release data on consumer inflation, while Spain is to hold an auction of 10-year sovereign bonds.
Canada is to release data on foreign securities purchases.
U.S. is to publish reports on consumer price inflation and initial
jobless claims, in addition to data on manufacturing activity in
Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to
speak at an event in Washington.
Friday, January 17
Switzerland is to publish data on producer price inflation.
The U.K. is to release data on retail sales.
U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary
reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S.
is also to release data on building permits, housing starts and
AUD/USD weekly outlook: January 13 - 17 (based on this article)
The U.S. is to publish reports on consumer price
inflation and initial jobless claims, in addition to data on
manufacturing activity in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington.