Press review - page 51
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Technical Analysis for USDCAD (based on Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal? article)
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDCAD, M15, 2013.11.29
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
temp_file_screenshot_29680.png
Technical Analysis for EURUSD (based on Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal? article)
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, W1, 2013.11.29
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
temp_file_screenshot_39264.png
Future price movements are often shaped by economic data. When the NFP number gets announced, or when the European Central Bank decides to cut rates; you’ll see this take place very quickly in numerous markets. Traders scramble to price in this ‘new’ information, and if the data was compelling enough, these prices changes can put in longer-term moves (new trends).
This type of thing happens in all markets; but what makes Foreign-exchange different is the realm of impact each of these data prints can bring.
Technical Analysis (adapted from dailyfx article)
For a few different reasons, Technical Analysis has a much more prominent role in FX as opposed to other markets. Surely, Technical Analysis is used by stock and futures traders; but in FX we’re dealing with entirely different subject matter.
As an example – a 10% movement in a day for a single stock can be considered a ‘great day.’ Movements of 5% or more are extremely common, especially when markets are pricing in new information (like earnings). Movements of 20% or more are less common, but they happen with regularity.
If a currency were to move 20% in a day, much bigger issues are at stake. In the above example, we looked at a 200+ pip movement in the EURUSD, which I described as ‘massive.’ And, in relative scope – this was a massive move.
But 200 pips in the EURUSD is really only about a 1.5% move
Technical Analysis is the art of using the chart, and past prices in an effort to find trade setups; so, technical analysis is really just a way of examining the past; and there are a lot of different ways of doing so.
The Potent Combination of Fundamentals and Price Action (adapted from dailyfx article)
Fundamentals help shape future price movements; and technical analysis can help explain past price movements. Between these two analytical systems, we can begin to focus on the highest-probability strategies and setups.
But this will not remove risk; and until a trader learns to manage their risk, the probability of profitability (long-term) will remain miniscule – and because of that, Risk Management isn’t just a preference, it’s a necessity.
2013-11-29 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Mortgage Approvals]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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Pound Ticks Down Following U.K. Mortgage Approvals
The U.K. mortgage approvals data for October has been released at 4.30 am ET Friday. The pound edged down against other major currencies after the data.
The pound was trading at 1.6340 against the greenback, 167.25 against the yen, 1.4795 against the franc and 0.8329 against the euro around 4:32 am ET.
AUDZND Technical Analysis (based on Australian Dollar Weakness versus Kiwi Could Mean Downtrend Continues article)
Talking Points
Sometimes Forex traders do not want to trade currency pairs that are highly correlated to Europe, the US or Japan. Debt ceiling and US Fed “Taper Talk”, fast moving Yen pairs, Eurozone crisis; where can traders go to escape the excess volatility and headline driven markets?
The answer may lay south of the equator. The AUD/NZD also known as the “Aussie Kiwi” is not a fast mover but often displays very clear and predictable trends. Many traders like the slow and steady trends of AUDNZD.
AUD/NZD may be no speed “demon” with an average daily range of 74 pips. However, the “slow and steady” approach won the race for the turtle over the rabbit and this approach may make Aussie Kiwi a winner as well.
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The chart was made using Metatrader 5 with the following indicators:
GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis (based on dailyfx.com article)
Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Bullish
The technical outlook for the GBPUSD remains constructive as the bullish momentum in the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) gathers pace, and we may see a more meaningful move at 1.6400 (61.8% Fibonacci expansion) to 1.6420 (1.618% Fibonacci expansion) should the fundamental developments further the BoE’s case to normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule. In turn, we will retain our game plan to buy dips in the pound-dollar, but we could be looking for a correction (higher low) before the end of the year as the RSI approaches overbought territory.
AUDUSD Fundamental Analysis (based on dailyfx.com article)
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral
The week ahead offers plenty of top-tier US economic data releases to inform the evolution of this process. November’s ISM round-up, a revised set of third-quarter GDP figures and the all-important Employment report are all on tap. Outcomes that top economists’ forecasts are likely to encourage the rotation out of USD-funded carry and weigh threaten to push the Aussie lower, while those that fall short may offer the unit a lifeline after six consecutive weeks of selling.
On the domestic front, the year’s last RBA interest rate decision is unlikely to yield substantial policy innovations.Forum
Forex Weekly Outlook
Shunmas, 2013.12.01 12:30
Investing.com - The euro ended the week near one-month highs against the dollar on Friday and was close to five year highs against the yen, after data showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone rose more-than-expected in November, easing concerns over further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
Eurostat said the annual rate of consumer inflation rose by 0.9% in November, recovering from a four year low of 0.7% in October. Economists had forecast an annual increase of 0.8%.
Another report showed that the euro zone unemployment rate fell to 12.1% in October, down from 12.2% in September, the first fall since February 2011. However, the youth unemployment rate in the region rose to record high of 24.4% in October.
EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3591, slightly below session highs of 1.3622. For the week, the pair gained 0.42%.
The euro ended the week 1.46% higher against the broadly weaker yen, with EUR/JPY settling at 139.21, the highest level since June 2009.
The yen remained under heavy selling pressure amid heightened expectations that the Bank of Japan will implement further stimulus measures in order to meet its target of 2% inflation by 2015.
On Wednesday, BoJ board member Sayuri Shirai raised doubts over whether the inflation target can be met because of downside risks to growth, adding that the bank was open to taking further steps if growth slows.
The dollar hit a six month high of 102.61 against the yen on Friday, the highest level since May 23. USD/JPY ended Friday’s session at 102.44. For the week, the pair was up 1.06%, the fifth consecutive weekly gain.
Elsewhere, the pound rose to 27-month highs against the dollar on Friday and climbed to five year highs against the yen. Sterling’s gains came after the Bank of England said Thursday it was rolling back stimulus to the U.K. housing market.
GBP/USD hit highs of 1.6383, the highest since late August 2011, before ending the session at 1.6367. The pair ended the week with gains of 1.24%.
Sterling ended the week 2.32% higher against the struggling yen, with GBP/JPY settling at 167.74, the highest level since October 2008.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to scale back its stimulus program at one of its next few meetings.
Meanwhile, rate decisions by the ECB, the BoE, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will also be in focus.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, December 2
Japan is to publish data on capital spending, a leading indicator of economic health.
Australia is to release data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity, as well as a report on company operating profits.
China is to release the final reading of its closely watched HSBC manufacturing PMI.
The euro zone is to release revised data on its manufacturing PMI, while Spain and Italy are also to release individual reports.
Switzerland is to publish the results of its SVME manufacturing PMI, and the U.K. is to release its manufacturing PMI.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington. Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.
Tuesday, December 3
Australia is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to produce data on the current account.
The RBA is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision.
The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales, an important economic indicator.
In the euro zone, Spain is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed.
The U.K. is to release its construction PMI.
Wednesday, December 4
Australia is to release data on third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.
The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, while Spain and Italy are to publish their services PMI’s.
The U.K. is also to publish its services PMI, a leading indicator of economic health.
The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days.The Institute of Supply Management is to release its services PMI. The U.S is also to publish data on new home sales.
Both the U.S. and Canada are to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision.
Thursday, December 5
Australia is to publish data on the trade balance.
The BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
Later in the day, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
Canada is to publish data on building permits and the Ivey PMI.
The U.S. is to publish a revised estimate of third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish data on factory orders.
Friday, December 6
The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.
Switzerland is to release data on consumer inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
Germany is to release data on factory orders.
Canada is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.
The University of Michigan is to release the preliminary reading of its consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.