Press review - page 394

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canadian International Merchandise Trade and 76 pips price movement

2016-05-04 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -2.5B
• forecast data is -1.4B
• actual data is -3.4B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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USD/CAD M5: 76 pips price movement by Canadian International Merchandise Trade news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 13:36

Trading the News: ISM Non-Manufacturing (based on the article)

...

• EUR/USD may make a more meaningful run at the August high (1.1713) as it breaks out of the triangle/wedge formation in April, but the pair stands at risk for a near-term pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to push above 70 and appears to be turning around ahead of overbought territory.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
• Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

EUR/USD M5: 35 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil Intra-Day Price Action Analysis - breakdown with the bearish reversal in the near future

2016-05-04 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 2.0M
• forecast data is 0.6M
• actual data is 2.8M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 543.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown reversal. The price broke 200 SMA/100 SMA to below to be reversed from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition. The price was bounced from 44.61 support level for the ranging bearish within 45.14 resistance and 44.61 levels waiting for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.

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Crude Oil H4: ranging bullish. The price is located above 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the bullosh condition and near 100 period SMA 9100 SMA) for the secondary ranging within 44.60 support level and 45.99 resistance level. The level for the bullish trend continuation without ranging is 48.25, and the level for the bearish reversal is 42.53 which is the value of 200 SMA for now.

• If the price will break 48.25 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
  
• If price will break 42.53 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
48.25	44.60
N/A	42.53

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 42.53 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 48.25 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 19 pips price movement

2016-05-05 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -3.04B
• forecast data is -2.90B
• actual data is -2.16B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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• "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,836m in March 2016, a decrease of $250m (8%) on the deficit in February 2016."
• "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,163m in March 2016, a decrease of $881m (29%) on the deficit in February 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 19 pips price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil Forecast: daily bullish reversal, weekly bear market rally  (based on the article)

"The Support Zone in focus after Thursday’s blast-off is the Wednesday low at $43.20. Wednesday's low is above the next level of support by ~$0.70 barrel at $42.48, which is the April 26 low that printed before pushing up to $46.75 to close the month. Below $42.48, there could be a quick drop to the 200-DMA, which would take a strong move lower down to ~$40/bbl. Given the significance of the Intermarket factors that have shifted since Oil broke above $40/ 200-DMA, only a move below there would change my bullish model."

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on the article)

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ a further improvement in the labor market paired with signs of stronger wage growth may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the benchmark interest rate at the next quarterly meeting in June as the central bank risks falling behind the curve.

Nevertheless, waning business confidence along with the slowdown in household consumption may prompt U.S. firms to scale back on hiring, and a dismal employment report may drag on the U.S. dollar as market participants push out bets for higher borrowing-costs.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Expands 200K+, Jobless Rate Narrows

• Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
• If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Falls Short of Market Expectations

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.06 12:01

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on the article)

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ a further improvement in the labor market paired with signs of stronger wage growth may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the benchmark interest rate at the next quarterly meeting in June as the central bank risks falling behind the curve.

Nevertheless, waning business confidence along with the slowdown in household consumption may prompt U.S. firms to scale back on hiring, and a dismal employment report may drag on the U.S. dollar as market participants push out bets for higher borrowing-costs.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Expands 200K+, Jobless Rate Narrows

• Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
• If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Falls Short of Market Expectations

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR: Gentle Downtrend; AUD: New Targets - Credit Agricole (based on the article)

EUR:

• "Once again we revise our forecasts for EUR to the upside to account for the recent very disappointing US data, the persistent dovish shift in the Fed’s outlook and the change in the reaction function of the ECB."
• "While we expect the Fed to resume its tightening cycle later this year, we believe that the shift in the ECB's focus away from trying to cheapen EUR and towards boosting domestic demand through the Eurozone lending channel is here to stay. Our new projections still see EUR/USD on a gentle downtrend, mainly because we still expect the Fed to deliver a total of four rate hikes this and next year."

AUD:

• "The RBA surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut this month, putting an end to the AUD rally. From current levels, we see limited scope for further AUD/USD upside given AUD long positions are now at extended levels (as indicated by our G10 positioning index – Longs in commodity currencies starting to look stretched); moreover, sentiment towards the USD is already quite bearish."
• "We retain our bearish view on AUD/USD supported by diverging monetary policies and the arguments stated above. We forecast AUD/USD to maintain a downward trajectory over the next year, reaching 0.70 in Q217."

[Sergey Golubev]

Week Ahead: Dollar Index Technical Analysis - daily ranging bearish, weekly ranging near reversal; what's next? (based on the article)

• "The USD is stuck at the bottom of the so-called ‘dollar smile’, which links its path to the performance of the US and global economy as well as the risk sentiment of investors."
• "We therefore expect USD to appreciate again against G10 commodity currencies as investors start questioning the Fed's ability to fall further behind the curve and the sustainability of the commodity-price rally in the presence of persistent downside risks to the global recovery. EUR and JPY should also remain more resilient against this background."
• "Among the key events next week will be the BoE’s May inflation report. Investors will want to know whether the MPC sees the latest economic slowdown as temporary, driven by Brexit fears, or persistent and thus likely to affect the policy outlook. With the EU referendum approaching, the MPC should stress the asymmetric risks to the outlook. This coupled with more evidence that the support for Brexit remains unabated should keep GBP on the defensive across the board."
  

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Daily price is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the bearish market condition: the price is ranging within 91.92 support level and 94.81 resistance level with RSI indicator estimating the ranging bearish trend to be continuing in the near future. Bullish reversal resistance level is 96.40, and if the price breaks this level to above so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started.

• If the price will break 94.81 resistance level so we may see the local uptrend as the bear market rally.
  
• If price will break 91.92 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
94.81	91.92
96.40	N/A

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Weekly price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish trend: the price is testing 93.01 support level together with 100 SMA to below on close weekly bar for the secondary correction to be continuing and with 82.51 as the next bearish reversal target. But if the price breaks 100.51 resistance to above on close weekly bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - ranging near reversal levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forex Weekly Outlook May 9-13 (based on the article)

Graeme Wheeler’s speech, US Crude Oil Inventories, rate decision, Mark Carney’s speech, US Unemployment Claims, Retail sales, Producer Prices and consumer sentiment. These are the main events on Forex calendar.

1. Graeme Wheeler speaks: Tuesday, 22:05. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler will speak in Wellington to elaborate on the economic factors which prompted the last cash rate decision towards the end of April.
2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
   
3. UK Rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England decided to keep rates unchanged at its April meeting aiming to reach the 2% inflation target and maintain growth and employment. The MPC members forecast the Bank rate will rise to ensure inflation returns to the target in a sustainable fashion. However, the EU referendum effects may spoil forecasts.
4. Mark Carney speaks: Thursday, 12:45. The Bank of England governor Mark Carney will speak in London about the Inflation.
5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30.
6. German GDP data: Friday, 7:00.
7. US retail sales: Friday, 13:30.
8. US PPI: Friday, 13:30.
9. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer confidence declined for the fourth straight month in April registered 89.7 from 91 posted in March amid growing concerns about weaker economic growth. Analysts expected a positive reading of 91.9.