A backtest is only as honest as the data and the costs behind it. Here is exactly how the numbers on the product page were produced, and what they leave out.
One contract at a time, not a continuous chart
A continuous futures chart glues the quarterly contracts together and shifts the older prices so the joins look smooth. A program tested on it trades price levels that never existed. So each quarterly MNQ contract was tested on its own, only while it was the front month: 11 contracts, from MNQM24 (April 2024) to MNQZ26 (October 2026).
Real ticks
Every test used the Strategy Tester mode "every tick based on real ticks", with the broker's own tick history. Generated ticks would invent the path of price inside each bar, and with fixed stops and targets that path decides the result.
Costs
The tester reports for MNQ show no commission. Every figure below therefore deducts $2.00 per round turn (one contract in and out), and a cautious scenario adds one tick of slippage on every entry and every exit.
The result (backtest, 1 MNQ contract, 1 April 2024 to 9 October 2026, $50,000 start)
| Before costs | After $2.00 per round turn | Plus 1 tick slippage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | $30,199.00 | $27,229.00 | $25,744.00 |
| Profit factor | 1.34 | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Max drawdown | $2,196.50 | $2,483.00 | $2,627.00 |
| Trades | 1,485 | 1,485 | 1,485 |
| Winning trades | 41.8% | 41.1% | 40.7% |
| Losing months | 8 of 31 | 9 of 31 | 9 of 31 |
All 11 contracts ended positive after costs, but the weakest made only $673 in its quarter. The longest losing streak was 15 trades (16 to 25 September 2024). The worst day lost $673.50. One single day, 9 April 2025, produced about 13% of the net result: without days like that, the picture is much flatter.
What a backtest cannot show
The rules were built with data from the same years as the test, so the backtest is optimistic by construction. It does not include partial fills, outages, a computer that was switched off, or the decision to stop the program after a few losses. That is why a real account has been running the same rules with default settings since 19 October 2026, with no manual trades. The monthly notes on this blog and channel will compare it with the backtest, losing months included.
Check it yourself
The free demo runs in the Strategy Tester. Pick one quarterly contract, real ticks, your broker's commission, and compare.
Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Past and backtested results do not predict future results. This is software, not investment advice.
