Since mid-April, EUR / USD has been trading in a downward channel on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which is near the support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
The signal for the resumption of short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 1.1690 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The target of the decline is the level of support 1.1520 (lows of the year). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1520, the target of further decline will be the level of support 1.1285. The prevailing negative dynamics.
An alternative scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the resistance level 1.1750 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and the rise to the resistance level 1.1850 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the different orientation of the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB is the main negative driver for EUR / USD. Short positions are preferred.
Today, all the attention of market participants will be focused on the ECB meeting. The decision on the rates will be published at 11:45 (GMT) of the decision on rates. At 12:30 a press conference will begin. ECB President Mario Draghi will give an assessment of the prospects for the European economy and monetary policy of the ECB and explain the decision of the ECB on rates.
Any hints of Mario Draghi on the approach of the start of the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone will cause the growth of the euro and the EUR / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1690, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1520, 1.1400, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1740, 1.1750, 1.1790, 1.1850
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1680. Stop-Loss 1.1760. Take-Profit 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1520, 1.1400, 1.1285
Buy Stop 1.1760. Stop-Loss 1.1680. Take-Profit 1.1790, 1.1850
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
