S&P500: pending key inflation data

S&P500: pending key inflation data

14 July 2017, 12:48

Today, the main US stock indexes are traded in a narrow range in anticipation of the publication of key US inflation indicators. Investors will also closely monitor the reporting of the largest US banks. Today begins the reporting period for US banks, including Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and PNC Financial Services Inc.

Shares of American banks in the last three weeks gained almost 6% in the hope that a gradual increase in interest rates will lead to an increase in their income from lending. The Fed has planned another rate hike this year, but some investors are still skeptical about further tightening of monetary policy. Fed executives are calling for waiting for more robust signals about inflation in the US to continue raising interest rates in the US.

This opinion was yesterday held by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Lael Brainard.

In general, so far the positive dynamics of the indices against the backdrop of the growth of corporate profits remains. However, the rhetoric of the world's central banks has changed toward a more stringent monetary policy. It seems that, amid the strengthening of the world economy, stimulating programs in countries with the largest economies may soon be curtailed. And this is a negative factor for the stock markets.

At (12:30 GMT) the US consumer price index and retail sales report are published. Investors will pay close attention to the data to understand whether the recent weakening of inflation is temporary. The reaction of the dollar and the US stock market to inflation data is acute, given that these data, along with data on the labor market and GDP, play a key role in the decision making by the Fed at the interest rate.

It is expected that in June, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% (after a decrease of 0.1% in May) and by 1.7% in annual terms. Such an increase in inflation will not satisfy the Fed and will help to weaken the US dollar, but will also support American stock markets. But if the consumer price index comes out in June with better indicators than the forecast, the dollar will strengthen in the foreign exchange market, while stock indices, including the S & P500 index, will decrease.

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Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index slightly decreased, trading in a narrow range near the mark of 2445.0.

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart are on the buyers side, however, on the 4-hour, 1-hour chart, the indicators turned to short positions, signaling an overdue correction after many days of growth.

In the event of a downward correction, the S & P500 may fall to the support levels 2433.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 2426.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart).

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the weekly chart also turned to short positions.

If the negative trend increases, then the deeper decline of the index to support levels of 2405.0 (June and July lows), 2390.0, 2355.0, near which the bottom line of the rising channel passes on the weekly chart, is possible.

While the price is above 2325.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2305.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016), the positive dynamics of the index remains. In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level 2452.0 (June and year highs), the growth of the index will resume.

Support levels: 2433.0, 2426.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2325.0, 2305.0

Resistance level: 2452.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 2420.0. Stop-Loss 2432.0. Objectives 2415.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2320.0, 2305.0

Buy Stop 2432.0. Stop-Loss 2420.0. Objectives 2438.0, 2452.0, 2500.00

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