Markets are trading risk on, buoyed by better than expected China trade data, with Eurostoxx50 more than 2.5% higher and US front-end yields tentatively pushing higher.
In sympathy the USD is bouncing back vs the EUR and the JPY and in the near-term we think this correction can extend further, consistent BNP Paribas STEER signalling that EURUSD short-term fair value is 1.1243. Typically it takes 1-2 weeks for an exchange rate to revert back to its STEER.
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...Our expectations that the BoJ is more likely to react to currency strength than the ECB has been bolstered by comments from BoJ’s Harada. EURJPY should rebound and we remain long via a derivatives trade recommendation. STEER signals short-term fair value in EURJPY is 127.89.