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GARCH Improved Nelder Mead MT4

4

Introduction to GARCH Indicator

GARCH is the short initial for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and it is the volatility prediction model commonly used in financial industry. GARCH model was first appeared in the work by Danish Economist, Tim Peter Bollerslev in 1986. The 2003 Nobel Prize winner, Robert F Engle also added much contribution for the refinement of GARCH model with Tim’s work. Our GARCH INM predictor took the original method of Nelder Mead for GARCH model building. However, the original Nelder Mead’s method occasionally misses convergence and therefore, we improved the original Nelder Mead method by incorporating intermediate ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) step before GARCH step.


How to use GARCH Indicator

The whole purpose of GARCH INM predictor is to improve trading performance. Here are few tips.

  1. Our GARCH INM predictor uses point as basic unit. Therefore, the predicted volatility can provide trader scalable idea on future volatility. For example, if GARCH predicted 1120 point (112 pips) for current candle with 95% confidence interval, then you might expect that there is 95% of chance for current market to stay within the 112 pips range.

  2. Detecting anomaly market is also another important function with GARCH. If price range for current market moved outside the predicted volatility (95% confidence interval), then this is the anomaly event with 5% Probability to occur.

  3. Volatility has very close connection to trend. Increasing volatility often tell you start of trend. Filtering out range market using our GARCH INM predictor, you can aim to enter trend market.


Mathematical Description of GARCH

GARCH INM predictor uses standard GARCH (1, 1) model. Its mathematical description is simply relating the variance of time series to previous variance and previous squared return. In mathematical notation, this would be:

Variance at t = omega + alpha * squared return at t-1 + beta * Variance at t-1

Where time series return y at t = mean + error and t = time


Description for input parameters
  • NumberOfObs: Number of observations (data point) to be used for calculation. We recommend minimum 1000 data point.
  • UseHighLow: With use of High-Low mode (true), the range is calculated using high – low. If UseHighLow = false, then close – previous close will be used to calculate range. We recommend using default for your trading.
  • ConfidenceInterval: Confidence Interval for GARCH prediction. We provide 90%, 95% and 99% confidence interval. This confidence interval provides you probabilistic sense for future market range.
  • SafetyFactor: Safety Factor is added for extra safety of trading operation. Safety Factor should be greater than 1. If Safety Factor = 1, then the predicted volatility is equal to original GARCH volatility. If Safety Factor = 1.5, then the predicted volatility will have 50% safe margin over the original GARCH volatility.


Some Trading Ideas with GARCH Nelder Mead


User can adjust Safety Factor from 1.0 to 3.0 to work best for your trading. If GARCH prediction envelope does not touch the price at all, then you can decrease the Safety factor. If GARCH prediction envelope touch the price too often, then you can increase the Safety factor. The main idea is to tune the GARCH prediction to pick extreme bullish or bearish shock in the market. In the shock, use the mean reversion style trading to profit.


Trading Strategy Guide

You can find the detaild trading strategy guide about how to use volatility indicator from the link below. We recommend to read this article before using this volatiltiy indicator for your trading.

Guide for Volatility Indicator


In addition, you can find the trading stratgy for Forex from links below. 

Guide for Volume Spread Analysis

Guide for Harmonic Pattern Detection Indicator

Guide for Momentum Indicator

Guide for Supply Demand Indicator

Guide for Triangle Pattern, Falling Wedge Pattern, Rising Wedge Pattern and Channel

Guide for Elliott Wave Indicator


Important Note

This is the off the shelf product. Therefore, we do not accept any modification or customization request on this product. In addition, we do not provide any code library or any support for your coding for this product.


Comentários 5
John Winsome Munar
3471
John Winsome Munar 2022.06.20 15:03 
 

Nice work

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Currency Strength Wizard é um indicador muito poderoso que fornece uma solução completa para uma negociação bem-sucedida. O indicador calcula o poder deste ou daquele par forex usando os dados de todas as moedas em vários intervalos de tempo. Esses dados são representados em uma forma de índice de moeda fácil de usar e linhas de energia de moeda que você pode usar para ver o poder desta ou daquela moeda. Tudo o que você precisa é anexar o indicador ao gráfico que deseja negociar e o indicador mo
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O IX Power traz finalmente a precisão imbatível do FX Power para símbolos não-Forex. Determina com exatidão a intensidade das tendências a curto, médio e longo prazo nos seus índices, acções, mercadorias, ETFs e até criptomoedas favoritos. Pode analisar tudo o que o seu terminal tem para oferecer. Experimente e veja como o seu timing melhora significativamente quando negoceia. Características principais do IX Power Resultados de cálculo 100% precisos e sem repintura - para todos os símb
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Please contact me after purchase to immediately get your PDF strategy + documentation for Trend Pulse !  Introducing Trend Pulse , a unique and robust indicator capable of detecting bullish, bearish, and even ranging trends! Trend Pulse uses a special algorithm to filter out market noise with real precision. If the current symbol is moving sideways, Trend Pulse will send you a ranging signal, letting you know that it's not a good time to enter a trade. This excellent system makes Trend Pulse
O painel de alerta RSI / TDI permite monitorar RSIs de uma só vez (selecionável por você) em todos os principais pares que você negocia. Você pode usá-lo de duas maneiras: 1. Selecione vários prazos e o traço mostrará quando houver vários prazos estendidos além das condições normais de negociação. Um ótimo indicador de que o preço aumentou muito recentemente, pois atingiu um nível de sobrecompra ou sobrevenda em vários prazos, de modo que uma retração ou reversão deve ocorrer em breve.
Stratos Pali Indicator   is a revolutionary tool designed to enhance your trading strategy by accurately identifying market trends. This sophisticated indicator uses a unique algorithm to generate a complete histogram, which records when the trend is Long or Short. When a trend reversal occurs, an arrow appears, indicating the new direction of the trend. Important Information Revealed Leave a review and contact me via mql5 message to receive My Top 5 set files for Stratos Pali at no cost! D
Gold Channel   é um indicador baseado na volatilidade, desenvolvido com um algoritmo de tempo especifico para o par XAUUSD que consiste em encontrar possíveis correções no mercado. Este indicador mostra duas linhas exteriores, uma interior (linha de retração) e um sinal de seta, onde a teoria do canal consiste em ajudar a identificar condições de sobrecompra e sobrevenda no mercado. O preço do mercado cairá geralmente entre os limites do canal. Se os preços tocarem ou se moverem para fora do can
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Oleg Rodin
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Uma estratégia intradiária baseada em dois princípios fundamentais do mercado. O algoritmo é baseado na análise de volumes e ondas de preços usando filtros adicionais. O algoritmo inteligente do indicador dá um sinal apenas quando dois fatores de mercado se combinam em um. O indicador calcula ondas de um determinado intervalo no gráfico M1 usando os dados do período de tempo mais alto. E para confirmar a onda, o indicador utiliza a análise por volume. Este indicador é um sistema de negociação pr
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Bomb Bank Signal: O Seu Indicador de Confiança no MetaTrader 4 O Bomb Bank Signal é um poderoso indicador para MetaTrader 4, projetado para identificar as tendências mais relevantes no mercado financeiro. Se você está buscando uma ferramenta que antecipe movimentos com precisão, o Bomb Bank é o aliado que você precisa. Como Funciona: Este indicador combina três métodos distintos – análise de volumes, fechamentos de vela e tendência simétrica – para detectar e sinalizar oportunidades de compra e
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Elijah Montefalco
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Elijah Montefalco 2024.05.31 03:37 
 

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John Winsome Munar
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John Winsome Munar 2022.06.20 15:03 
 

Nice work

malasuerte
27
malasuerte 2021.04.14 09:10 
 

Thank you so mauch releasing

Maksym Mudrakov
29611
Maksym Mudrakov 2016.08.31 07:30 
 

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Jean-Sebastien Laurent
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Jean-Sebastien Laurent 2015.08.05 14:47 
 

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Versão 3.3 2021.12.05
In version 3.3, we have made some minor improvement over the GARCH indicator. Here is the instruction to use the GARCH indicator.


User can adjust Safety Factor from 1.0 to 3.0 to work best for your trading
If GARCH prediction envelope does not touch the price at all, then you can decrease the Safety factor.
If GARCH prediction envelope touch the price too often, then you can increase the Safety factor.
The main idea is to tune the GARCH prediction to pick extreme bullish or bearish shock in the market
In the shock, use the mean reversion style trading to profit.