Agarwal Meridian BTC Trend

Agarwal Meridian BTC Trend

A fully automated, rules-based trend-following system for BTCUSD on the 1-hour timeframe. The strategy executes a staged 3-position structure with defined take-profits and a hard stop-loss on every trade. There is no martingale, no grid, no averaging down, and no discretionary override. It is a position-trading system that produces approximately 9–10 signals per year, designed to run unattended, 24 hours a day, without monitoring.

How it works

The system identifies confirmed trend shifts and enters at the open of the candle following a completed signal — signal on close, entry at next open — which eliminates lookahead bias and matches real execution. Each position is managed in three parts: an early target that locks in profit and validates the move, an extended target that captures stronger trends, and a final portion that trails the trend for as long as it continues. Exits occur on a stop-loss, a take-profit, or a confirmed opposing signal.

Backtested performance — January 2019 to July 2026 (7.5 years, 69 trades)

All figures in this section are results of historical backtesting, not live trading results. They are stated at reference position sizing and scale with the lot size you choose.

• Backtested net result: +263,990 points gross (+261,920 points after estimated costs)
• Backtested average per year: approximately +65,998 points
• Profit factor (PF): 2.46 (2.44 after estimated costs)
• Win rate: 56.5% (39 winning trades / 30 losing trades)
• Sharpe ratio: 1.63 · Sortino ratio: 2.27 · Calmar ratio: 2.12
• Maximum drawdown: 31,159 points · return on maximum drawdown: 8.47 times
• Monthly win rate: 70.8% (34 of 48 months positive)

Year-by-year backtest breakdown (points, reference sizing)

• 2019: +7,511 — bear to recovery
• 2020: +19,690 — COVID recovery into bull market
• 2021: +97,484 — full bull run
• 2022: +8,757 — bear market
• 2023: +7,992 — consolidation to recovery
• 2024: +66,357 — new all-time-high cycle
• 2025: −9,740 — all-time-high chop, the one regime a trend-following system is expected to struggle in
• 2026: +65,939 — post-peak drawdown, year to date

The backtest was positive in 7 of 8 calendar years across six distinct Bitcoin market regimes. Statistical testing on the trade sequence returned a bootstrap probability of non-positive expectancy of 0.0018, and the observed drawdown sat at the 32nd percentile of 1,000 permutation shuffles of the same trade set.

You do not have to take these figures on trust. The free version of this product runs in the MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester, so you can reproduce the historical backtest on your own machine before deciding.

What you get

A compiled Expert Advisor, a recommended parameter set, and setup guidance for continuous unattended operation. Updated builds are included for the duration of your rental.

Requirements

• A hedging MetaTrader 5 account with a broker offering BTCUSD
• A machine or virtual private server (VPS) able to run MetaTrader 5 continuously
• Position size per leg is adjustable between 0.01 and 0.50 lots. The system opens three legs, so total exposure is up to 1.5 lots. Values outside this range are not accepted.
• Sufficient free margin to open all three legs. If margin is insufficient, the system will skip the signal rather than open a partial position.

Notes on use

This is a position-trading system, not a scalper. Winners are held for weeks, and it is normal for the system to hold no position for extended periods between signals. An on-chart status panel confirms the system is active and shows the current position at all times.

Trading leveraged products and cryptocurrencies carries substantial risk of loss. Historical backtest figures are not a promise or indication of future results. The user makes all trading decisions and bears all trading risk.