Simba Market Forecast Machine
- Indicatori
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Emmanuel Ndacyayisenga
NDACYAYISENGA Emmanuel is a quantitative trader and MQL5 Expert Advisor developer focused on transforming practical trading concepts into systematic and automated trading solutions. - Versione: 2.10
- Attivazioni: 10
Stop Chasing BUY/SELL Signals. Start Forecasting the Market.
You probably already have enough indicators.
RSI. MACD. Moving averages. Stochastic. Trend indicators. Buy arrows. Sell arrows.
The problem is not finding another indicator.
The problem is understanding what the market is actually doing.
A normal indicator may tell you:
BUY
But what happens next?
Where is price likely to go?
How strong is the setup?
What market regime are you in?
What could invalidate the idea?
What is the alternative scenario?
How much uncertainty exists?
And most importantly:
How has this type of forecast actually performed on your own market data?
This is where SIMBA Market Forecast Machine takes a different approach.
SIMBA is not designed to simply produce another BUY or SELL arrow.
It is designed to help you scan the market, classify the environment, build scenarios, estimate probabilities, identify targets, define invalidation and measure its own forecasting history.
And as its forecast history grows, its probability estimates can be recalibrated using the results recorded on your own MT5 terminal.
NO MORE BLIND BUY SIGNALSA BUY signal by itself tells you very little.
SIMBA is designed to give you the information around the forecast.
For example:
PRIMARY: BULLISH
Probability: 68%
Forecast Score: 78/100
Execution Score: 84/100
Target: 1.08750
Invalidation: 1.08120
R:R: 2.4
Uncertainty: 18%
ALTERNATIVE: BEARISH
Trigger: Structural invalidation below 1.08120
This is fundamentally different from simply seeing:
BUY ↑
SIMBA gives you a market scenario rather than asking you to blindly follow a signal.
And when the market does not provide enough evidence?
NO FORECAST
That is not a malfunction.
It is part of the design.
WHAT IS SIMBA?SIMBA Market Forecast Machine is a multi-symbol, multi-timeframe probabilistic market forecasting and decision-support engine for MetaTrader 5.
It combines:
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Market structure
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Trend
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Momentum
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Volatility
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Liquidity behavior
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Supply and demand
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Support and resistance
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Fibonacci analysis
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Multi-timeframe confirmation
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Scenario generation
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Probability estimation
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Uncertainty analysis
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Historical forecast calibration
into one integrated market-analysis environment.
The purpose is simple:
SCAN THE MARKET.
UNDERSTAND THE REGIME.
BUILD THE SCENARIO.
IDENTIFY THE TARGET.
DEFINE THE INVALIDATION.
MEASURE THE UNCERTAINTY.
LET THE TRADER DECIDE.
SIMBA does not place trades.
You remain in control.
MORE THAN A TRADITIONAL INDICATORA traditional indicator usually answers a narrow question.
Is momentum high?
Is price above an average?
Is the market overbought?
Did a crossover occur?
SIMBA attempts to answer a much broader question:
“Given the current market structure and conditions, what are the most probable paths from here?”
It therefore combines several analytical layers instead of relying on a single indicator output.
WHAT SIMBA ANALYZESMARKET STRUCTURE
SIMBA can evaluate:
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Swing highs and lows
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Break of Structure
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Liquidity sweeps
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Displacement
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Supply and demand areas
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Structural Fibonacci
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Higher-timeframe support and resistance
TREND & MOMENTUM
The forecasting framework can incorporate:
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EMA 20
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EMA 50
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EMA 200
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DEMA 9
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DEMA 20
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ADX
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Stochastic
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Parabolic SAR
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ATR
VOLATILITY
SIMBA evaluates the current volatility environment to help distinguish between conditions such as:
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Strong trend
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Expansion
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Compression
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Range
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High volatility
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Potential exhaustion
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Transition
The objective is not to predict every candle.
The objective is to understand what type of market you are trading.
MULTI-TIMEFRAME MARKET READINGMarkets behave differently depending on the timeframe.
A bullish M5 movement does not automatically mean the H1 or H4 structure is bullish.
SIMBA therefore evaluates multiple timeframes so the current forecast can be considered within a broader market context.
This helps answer an important question:
“Is the current movement supported by the bigger picture?”
Instead of trading one timeframe in isolation, SIMBA gives you a structured multi-timeframe view.
THE SIMBA MARKET BOARDWhy analyze one chart at a time?
SIMBA can monitor multiple symbols from a centralized dashboard.
Depending on your configuration, you can scan up to 20 symbols and compare them in one place.
Each market can display information such as:
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Symbol
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Current price
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Direction
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Market regime
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Forecast score
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Execution score
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Uncertainty
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Target
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Invalidation
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R:R
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Higher-timeframe support
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Higher-timeframe resistance
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Forecast status
You can quickly see where the market is offering cleaner conditions and where uncertainty is elevated.
You don't have to trade everything.
You only need to know where your attention may be justified.
MARKET REGIMEA strategy that works well during a strong trend can behave very differently inside a range.
SIMBA therefore classifies the market environment.
Possible states include:
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STRONG BULL
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BULL
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STRONG BEAR
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BEAR
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RANGE
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EXPANSION
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EXHAUSTION
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REVERSAL
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HIGH VOLATILITY
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LOW VOLATILITY
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TRANSITION
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UNCERTAIN
The regime becomes an important part of the forecasting process.
This means SIMBA is not simply asking:
“Is price going up?”
It is asking:
THE SCENARIO TREE“What kind of environment is price moving through?”
Markets do not owe you the outcome you expect.
That is why SIMBA does not have to rely on a single path.
The scenario engine can present:
PRIMARY SCENARIO
The direction currently supported by the strongest combination of market conditions.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
The opposing scenario and the condition that could activate it.
RANGE SCENARIO
The possibility that price remains trapped between important levels instead of producing a clean directional move.
This creates a more realistic way of looking at markets:
Primary path → Alternative path → Range possibility
rather than:
BUY → Hope
TARGET LADDERSIMBA can identify multiple potential destinations instead of forcing the analysis around one arbitrary take-profit level.
Potential target sources can include:
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Structural Fibonacci
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Daily pivot levels
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H1 support/resistance
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Supply/demand boundaries
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Structural price levels
The engine can organize these into a target ladder.
For example:
TP1 — 1.08420
TP2 — 1.08610
TP3 — 1.08850
TP4 — 1.09100
Depending on the forecast, the ladder can provide information such as:
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Price
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Probability
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Distance
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ATR distance
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R-multiple
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Expected bars
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Allocation guidance
This allows traders to see the potential path rather than focusing on one final destination.
INVALIDATIONA professional market thesis needs a point where the thesis is no longer valid.
SIMBA therefore identifies an invalidation level for the current scenario.
For example:
Bullish scenario
Entry area: 1.08400
Target: 1.08950
Invalidation: 1.08150
If price reaches the structural invalidation area, the bullish scenario is no longer supported under the current model.
This does not mean SIMBA knows exactly what happens next.
It means the trader knows:
“This is where my current market thesis stops making sense.”
UNCERTAINTY GATEOne of SIMBA's most important features is its ability to recognize when the market is unclear.
Uncertainty can increase when there is:
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Conflicting timeframe structure
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Weak trend strength
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Compressed volatility
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Conflicting directional scores
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Rapid regime changes
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Poor structural confirmation
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Unstable market conditions
When uncertainty becomes too high, SIMBA can refuse to produce a directional forecast.
Instead:
NO FORECAST — HIGH UNCERTAINTYThis is a powerful concept.
A system does not always need to tell you what to trade.
Sometimes the most useful information is:
“Conditions are not clear enough.”
THE SELF-CALIBRATING ENGINETHE FEATURE THAT MAKES SIMBA DIFFERENT
This is one of the most important parts of the SIMBA architecture.
Most indicators operate with fixed logic.
The developer defines the calculations.
You install the indicator.
It continues producing outputs according to those rules.
SIMBA goes one step further.
It records what happened after its forecasts.
Every completed forecast cycle can be recorded to a CSV file in your MT5 terminal.
The record can include information such as:
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Open time
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Close time
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Symbol
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Market regime
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Session
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Volatility state
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Direction
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Entry
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Target
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Invalidation
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Forecast score
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Execution score
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ATR
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R:R
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Uncertainty
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Target source
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Invalidation source
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Outcome
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Realized R
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Bars to outcome
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Maximum favorable movement
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Maximum adverse movement
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Target-ladder results
In simple terms:
SIMBA records what it believed.
Then it records what actually happened.
That creates a historical forecast dataset on your own terminal.
HOW THE CALIBRATION WORKSWhen a new forecast is generated, SIMBA can compare the current setup with previously recorded forecast cycles.
The engine can categorize forecasts according to characteristics such as:
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Market regime
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Direction
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Forecast-score range
It then examines previous outcomes in the corresponding category.
For example:
Suppose SIMBA has historically produced bullish forecasts during a strong-bull regime.
If those forecasts have frequently reached their targets, the historical evidence can increase the calibrated confidence associated with similar future forecasts.
If those forecasts have frequently failed, the calibrated confidence can move lower.
The system uses Bayesian smoothing to prevent a tiny sample from immediately dominating the estimate.
Conceptually:
p = (wins + k × prior) / (total + k)
This allows the system to gradually move from its initial model assumptions toward measured historical outcomes as more data becomes available.
FROM INITIAL ESTIMATE TO MEASURED HISTORYImagine SIMBA begins with an initial bullish probability estimate.
Early stage
There may be little historical data.
The probability therefore relies more heavily on the initial model.
Growing history
As more forecast cycles close, actual outcomes begin influencing the calibration.
Mature history
After sufficient observations, the displayed probability can increasingly reflect the measured historical performance of similar forecasts.
The important point is:
The system does not simply assume that every setup has the same probability forever.
It can measure how its own forecast categories have performed and adjust the confidence assigned to similar future scenarios.
YOUR MARKET. YOUR DATA. YOUR CALIBRATION.This is where the concept becomes especially interesting for traders.
Different markets behave differently.
Gold does not behave exactly like EURUSD.
US100 does not behave exactly like GBPUSD.
London does not behave exactly like the Asian session.
A trending environment does not behave exactly like a compressed range.
SIMBA's forecast history can therefore reveal differences across:
SYMBOLS
Which markets have produced stronger forecast outcomes?
REGIMES
Do strong-trend forecasts perform better than range forecasts?
SCORE LEVELS
Do high-confidence forecasts actually outperform weaker forecasts?
SESSIONS
Are certain trading periods producing stronger outcomes?
TARGET SOURCES
Which types of targets have historically been reached more often?
This transforms the CSV from a simple log file into a research dataset for your trading process.
THIS IS NOT UNCONTROLLED “AI”SIMBA should be understood precisely.
It does not use a neural network.
It does not require a GPU.
It does not rewrite its own source code.
It does not randomly change trading rules.
It does not continuously optimize every parameter.
The core analytical framework remains controlled.
What changes is the confidence calibration based on observed forecast outcomes.
That distinction matters.
SIMBA is not trying to become an unpredictable black box.
It is trying to answer a much simpler question:
“How well has this type of forecast actually performed?”
WHY THIS MATTERSA static indicator can tell you what its rules currently say.
A calibrated forecasting engine can additionally tell you how similar forecasts have historically performed.
That is a significant difference.
You are no longer looking only at:
“The model says bullish.”
You can also ask:
“How have similar bullish forecasts performed?”
That is a much better question for a trader.
THE CSV IS YOUR FORECAST MEMORYThe CSV log is not just a technical file.
It can become your historical record of SIMBA's forecasting behavior.
You can:
BACK IT UP
Keep your forecast history safe.
REVIEW IT
Open the data in Excel or another analysis tool.
STUDY IT
Compare outcomes by:
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Symbol
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Regime
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Session
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Forecast score
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Direction
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Target source
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R-multiple
LEARN FROM IT
Discover where the forecasting framework appears strongest and where it struggles.
The longer you run SIMBA, the more historical evidence you can accumulate.
FROM SIGNAL CHASING TO FORECAST ANALYSISThe difference can be summarized like this:
TRADITIONAL INDICATOR
BUY
SIMBA
BULLISH
Probability: 68%
Regime: Strong Bull
Target: 1.08950
Invalidation: 1.08150
R:R: 2.6
Uncertainty: 17%
Alternative: Bearish below invalidation
Historical calibration: Based on previous similar forecasts
That is a completely different way to approach the chart.
WHY TRADERS MAY FIND SIMBA USEFUL1. IT REDUCES BLIND SIGNAL CHASING
Instead of following a BUY or SELL arrow without context, you can examine the complete market scenario.
2. IT SHOWS UNCERTAINTY
Not every market condition deserves a prediction.
SIMBA can tell you when confidence is low.
3. IT SHOWS INVALIDATION
You know where the current market thesis stops being supported.
4. IT SHOWS MULTIPLE POTENTIAL TARGETS
Instead of treating the market as entry → one TP, you can examine a target ladder.
5. IT MONITORS MULTIPLE MARKETS
Scan multiple symbols without manually switching between numerous charts.
6. IT RECORDS ITS OWN FORECAST HISTORY
Every completed cycle can become part of your research dataset.
7. IT CAN RECALIBRATE PROBABILITIES
Historical outcomes can influence future confidence estimates for similar forecast categories.
SIMBA DOES NOT PROMISE PERFECTIONThis is important.
SIMBA is not a crystal ball.
It will be wrong.
Markets can move unexpectedly.
A 70% probability does not mean the next trade must win.
A 40% probability does not mean the market cannot move in that direction.
Probability is not certainty.
That is why SIMBA combines probability with:
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Invalidation
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Alternative scenarios
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R:R
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Market regime
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Uncertainty
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Historical outcomes
The objective is not to eliminate uncertainty.
The objective is to make uncertainty visible.
WHO IS SIMBA FOR?DISCRETIONARY TRADERS
For traders who want to make their own decisions but want stronger market context.
MULTI-MARKET TRADERS
For traders watching multiple Forex pairs, Gold, indices, commodities or other supported MT5 instruments.
SYSTEMATIC TRADERS
For traders who want structured market information to complement their own rules.
PROP-FIRM TRADERS
For traders who understand that avoiding poor-quality opportunities can be just as important as finding good ones.
DATA-DRIVEN TRADERS
For traders who want to measure their process instead of relying entirely on intuition.
WHO IS SIMBA NOT FOR?SIMBA is probably not for you if you want:
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Guaranteed BUY/SELL signals
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Guaranteed profits
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100%+ win-rate promises
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A completely automatic trading robot
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A system that makes every trading decision for you
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A magic indicator that predicts every market movement
SIMBA is built for traders who understand that markets are uncertain.
ANALYSIS ONLY — YOU REMAIN IN CONTROLSIMBA does not automatically execute trades.
It does not:
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Open positions
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Close positions
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Modify positions
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Control your broker account
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Guarantee execution
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Guarantee profits
It is a forecasting and analysis tool.
You decide whether to trade.
You decide how much to risk.
You decide where to enter.
You decide where to place your stop.
You decide how to manage the position.
SIMBA provides the market intelligence.
You make the final decision.
THE SIMBA WORKFLOW01 — SCAN
Monitor multiple markets.
02 — DETECT
Analyze structure, momentum, trend, volatility and important levels.
03 — CLASSIFY
Determine the current market regime.
04 — SCORE
Evaluate bullish, bearish and range conditions.
05 — BUILD
Generate primary, alternative and range scenarios.
06 — FORECAST
Estimate probabilities and potential targets.
07 — CHECK
Measure uncertainty and identify invalidation.
08 — RECORD
Store the completed forecast outcome.
09 — CALIBRATE
Use accumulated historical outcomes to refine future probability estimates.
10 — DECIDE
The trader makes the final decision.
WHAT YOU GETDepending on the product edition and configuration, SIMBA can provide:
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MT5 Market Forecast Machine
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Multi-symbol market dashboard
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Multi-timeframe analysis
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Market regime classification
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Forecast scoring
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Execution scoring
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Scenario tree
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Target ladder
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Invalidation levels
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Uncertainty assessment
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Structural analysis
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Support/resistance analysis
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Supply/demand analysis
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Historical forecast logging
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CSV calibration data
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Probability recalibration
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Product documentation
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Updates according to the purchased edition
Please review the specific MT5 Market listing for the exact features included in your edition.
IMPORTANT — USER MANUAL
After purchasing or renting SIMBA Market Forecast Machine, please contact the developer to receive the User Manual and setup instructions before using the product.
The manual will help you understand the dashboard, settings, forecasting features, calibration system, and recommended setup.
Please contact the developer after purchase or rental to receive the manual.
THE BOTTOM LINEYou probably do not need another indicator.
You need a better way to read the market.
A traditional indicator may tell you:
BUY.
SIMBA asks:
What is the market regime?
What is the preferred scenario?
What is the alternative?
Where is the target?
Where is the invalidation?
How uncertain is the forecast?
And how have similar forecasts performed before?
Then SIMBA records the outcome.
The history grows.
The calibration grows.
Your understanding of the system grows.
That is the philosophy behind SIMBA.
STOP CHASING SIGNALS. START READING THE MARKET.SCAN.
FORECAST.
MEASURE.
CALIBRATE.
DECIDE.
SIMBA Market Forecast Machine
More than an indicator.
More than a BUY/SELL signal.
A forecasting engine built to turn market data into structured scenarios, measurable probabilities and actionable context.
The market is uncertain.
Your analysis should acknowledge that.
PRODUCT IDENTITY
Developed by: ShieldNexus
Developer: NDACYAYISENGA Emmanuel
Trading Engine: SIMBA Trading Engine
Product Edition: SIMBA Community EditionSIMBA Market Forecast Machine
Powered by the SIMBA Trading Engine© NDACYAYISENGA Emmanuel / ShieldNexus
Product version and features may be updated over time.
Risk Warning: Trading financial markets involves substantial risk. Past or simulated performance does not guarantee future results. Use appropriate risk management and test the EA on a demo account before live deployment.
