Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for NZD/USD - page 2

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.25 07:31

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and 25 pips range price movement

2016-11-24 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -1394M
  • forecast data is -950M
  • actual data is -846M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report:



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NZD/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by NZ Trade Balance news event

 


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.30 07:52

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and 14 pips range price movement

2016-11-30 00:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From official report:


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NZD/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

 


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 15:19

NZD/USD Daily Technicals: ranging around 200-day SMA for direction (based on the article)

D1 price is located near and below 200 SMA waiting for the bearish trend to be resumed or the bullish reversal to be started.

 

  • "The New Zealand Dollar put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a turn lower against its US namesake may be ahead after a brief upswing. The setup has emerged after a retest of major trend line support-turned-resistance, seemingly bolstering the case for a bearish scenario."
  • "Near-term support is at 0.7068, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close below that opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7005. Alternatively, a move back above the 0.7136-62 area (38.2% Fib retracement, trend line) paves the way for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 0.7187."

If the price breaks 0.7046 support level to below on daily close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 0.7168 resistance level to above so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging waiting for direction of the trend.


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.19 07:01

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and 30 pips price movement

2016-12-18 00:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

==========

From RTT News article:

  • "Business confidence in New Zealand picked up steam in December, the latest survey from NBNZ showed on Monday with an index score of 21.7."

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NZD/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

 


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.21 04:14

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and 21 pips range price movement

2016-12-20 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -815M
  • forecast data is -500M
  • actual data is -705M according to the latest press release

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From official report:


==========

NZD/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event

 


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.22 05:30

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and 25 pips range price movement

2016-12-21 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

"Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew 1.1 percent in the September 2016 quarter." 

 

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NZD/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event

 


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