Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.21 16:54

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bearish reversal, daily bullish ranging for direction

2016-12-21 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bearish reversal. The price is located below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.

If the price breaks 55.81 resistance level so the secondary rally will be started with 56.11 target to the bullish reversal.
If the price breaks 55.49 support so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: ranging bullish. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within 57.23 resistance and 53.12 support waiting for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the secondary correction to be started.


If daily price breaks 57.23 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.12 support level to below on close daily bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.22 07:48

Energy's Biggest Winners & Losers In 2016 (based on the article)

2016 Winners

1. American Energy Producers

  • "American oil and gas producers came out on top this year because Donald Trump, an unabashed supporter of domestic energy production (fossil fuels and renewables) won the election."

2. China

  • "China won in 2016 by taking advantage of supremely low oil prices to fill its strategic oil reserve."

3. Russia and Saudi Arabia

  • "Russia and Saudi Arabia can both be considered winners because they were able to come to an agreement to limit oil production after a year of difficult negotiations."

2016 Losers

1. Venezuela, Europe and Iraq

  • "Venezuela really lost in 2016 because low oil prices hit the country so hard that even OPEC’s recent agreement to limit production will not help their damaged economy – now hit by hyperinflation."
  • "Europe’s energy situation did not improve in 2016, and the continent is still beholden to Russian natural gas and energy."
  • "The Iraqi government is ending 2016 in a difficult position, because it was not able to convince OPEC to grant it an exemption from the 2017 oil production cuts."

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The daily price is trending to be above 200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within 57.23 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 53.12 support level for the secondary correction to be started. By the way, the developing retracement bearish pattern is forming by the price for the possible correction to be started in the near future, and descending triangle pattern was formed for the correctional trend for the future as well.

Most likely scenario for the daily price is the following: 53.71 support level is going to be broken to below with 53.12 target to re-enter.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.23 06:31

West Texas Intermediate (WTI): What analysts expect from oil prices in 2017 (based on the article)

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch

"Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, for example, sees crude jumping 46% by next June, hitting $69 per barrel. Fueling that outlook is the fact oil and gas investments are down $300 billion, or 41%, since peaking in 2014, which should lead to shrinking supplies. Further, the bank's analysts see the persistently lower prices over the past several years driving healthy demand growth. These two factors could lead to the biggest gap between supply and demand in five years, which could push crude prices higher."

Goldman Sachs

"Goldman Sachs seems to be taking the middle ground. It recently increased its oil price forecast by predicting that WTI crude will rise to $57.50 per barrel by the second quarter, before settling around $55 per barrel in the second half of the year. Analysts at the World Bank, likewise, have a $55 oil price forecast for 2017 due to OPEC's moves to cut output and rebalance the oil market."

 

By the way, if we look at the weekly price of WTI so it is located below 200 period SMA in the bearish area of the chart.

  • AB=CD developing pattern is forming by the price for the bearish trend to be continuing;
  • price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels: 54.48 resistance for the rally to be started or 51.91 for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Bullish reversal point is located near 200 SMA at 71.00 so if the price breaks this level to above - we may see the long-term bullish trend for whole the 2017 for example.


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