Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil - page 4

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.22 09:43

Crude Oil Price Trades Higher for 3rd Consecutive Session (adapted from the article)

  • "WTI Crude Oil prices are currently set to close higher for the third consecutive trading session. This bounce in price occurred immediately after Crude Oil traded to a new monthly low last week at a price of $45.81. If this rally is set to continue, traders will look for Crude Oil to move on short-term values of resistance, before challenging the June 2016 high at $51.64."
  • "Key value of resistance sits at $49.41. This price level is represented in the graph above as a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which is found between the Junes high and low mentioned previously. If prices remain under resistance, it suggests that the measured move mentioned in last week’s article may still be valid. Alternatively, if prices break above this short-term point of resistance, it opens up Crude Oil to continue its 2016 uptrend. At which point traders may look for Crude Oil prices to challenge fresh yearly highs."

Crude Oil price is on trading higher for the 4th day: intra-day H4 price was started with breakout by 200 SMA crossing to above for the intra-day bullish market condition.



If the price breaks 51.07 resistance level on close H4 bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing on H4 timeframe.
If the price breaks 49.45 support level to below on close bar so the intra-day bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.22 16:38

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bullish ranging above bearish reversal

2016-05-25 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: intra-day bearish breakdown. The price is on ranging to be above 200 period SMA within 49.65 resistance and 49.14 support levels.

If the price breaks 51.05 resistance level so the reversal of the M5 price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 50.35 support so the intra-day primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.



==========

Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging within key narrow levels. The price is located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area in the bullish market condition: price is on ranging within 52.82 resistance level and 46.92 support level.



If the price breaks 52.82 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
if the price breaks 46.92 support level on close daily bar so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.27 10:21

After - Crude Oil Aims in Opposite Directions After Brexit (adapted from the article)


Brent Crude Oil, D1:

  • "Crude oil prices put in the largest daily decline in four months. From here, a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 45.60 targets the 38.2% level at 41.86. Alternatively, a move above resistance in the 48.73-50.18 area exposes the 23.6% Fib expansion at 51.86."
  • H4 intra-day price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA area for the bearish market condition.
  • The price is testing 47.52 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  • The primary bullish trend will be resumed only if the price breaks 50.83 resistance level to above.
  • The most likely scenario for H4 price movement is the bearish to be continuing and ranging bearish within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.27 19:24

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Brexit - daily correction to be started with 43.30 as a daily bearish reversal target (adapted on the article)

  • "There are three things that stand out on the Daily US Oil chart. First, the resistance around $50 from the October high. Second, the lower high into the Brexit vote that was met with a much stronger US dollar. Lastly, the pressure now being put on the 55-day moving average that has been a clear directional bias indicator for crude."
  • "At the risk of oversimplification, if the US dollar begins to strengthen further, and WTI Crude Oil (CFD: US Oil) falls back below the 55-Day Moving Average (currently at $46.59 per barrel), we could likely see a retest of the March corrective zone. This zone occurred when US Dollar showed strength again that eventually faded. This zone sits at $41.85/$35.81 per barrel. A break below this zone would favor retest below $30 a barrel."

D1 price is on ranging market condition within the primary bullish area of the chart: price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA area for 46.92 support level to be broken to below for the secondary correction to be started with 43.30 bearish reversal target.


ResistanceSupport
52.8246.92
N/A
43.30
If D1 price will break 46.92 support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If D1 price will break 43.30 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 52.82 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.29 16:51

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish breakout; ranging bullish on daily

2016-05-29 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.1 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil M5: intra-day bullish breakout. The price broke 100 SMA to above on Pending Home Sales news event to be reversed from the ranging bullish market condition to the primary bullish. The price is started with the bullish breakout immediate after Crude Oil Inventories news event with 49.73 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 49.73 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing on this timeframe.
If the price breaks 48.88 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


==========

Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging within 52.82/46.67 levels. The price is located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging/reversal area in the bullish area of the chart: price is on ranging within 52.82 resistance level and 46.67 support level.


If the price breaks 52.82 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
if the price breaks 46.67 support level on close daily bar so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.



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