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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CAD - page 4

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.29 22:31

Trading News Events: Canadian GDP (adapted from the article)

2016-06-30 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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There are 5 possible scenarios related to this news events

  1. "Within expectations. In such a scenario, USD/CAD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher."
  2. "Above expectations: 0.5% to 0.9%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support line."
  3. "Well above expectations: Above 0.9%: An unexpected surge by the indicator would likely push USD/CAD downwards, and a second support level might be broken as a result."
  4. "Below expectations: -0.7% to -0.3%:  A weak reading could cause the pair to climb and break one level of resistance."
  5. "Well below expectations: Below -0.7%. A strong contraction in economic growth would likely hurt the loonie and USD/CAD could break above a second resistance level."

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USD/CAD H4: correction to be started within the primary bullish. The price is on the secondary correction which is started on open H4 bar for now by 1.2973 support level to be broken to below with Chinkou Span line to be ready to break the price for good possible breakdown.


If the price breaks 1.2973 support level to below on close H4 bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish condition will be started.
If the price breaks Senkou Span line at 1.2887 on close H4 bar so we may see the bearish reversal to be started on this timeframe.
If the price breaks 1.3107 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be continuing with the ranging bullish trend within the levels.


Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.30 10:01

USD/CAD Recovers But Still Far From Pre-Brexit Levels (based on the article)


  • "The Canadian dollar advanced against the U.S. dollar as Brexit fears that triggered a sell off have abated. There has been little in way of economic indicators to drive the market and official comments from policy makers has been limited and obtuse as usual. One thing is clear the potential exit by the U.K. from the European Union is not to be a quickie divorce. There is still a high number of conversations between E.U. leaders and a political mess back in the U.K. to deal with. The Canadian dollar got a boost from crude and gold with both rising against the USD."
  • "The USD/CAD lost 0.52 percent in the least 24 hours. The pair is trading at 1.2985. The Loonie benefited from Brexit fears subsiding as the road ahead for a possible UK exit will be a long one. The Canadian dollar got support from commodities. Oil prices rose more than 3 percent and Gold eked out a 0.74 percent gain despite fewer investors seeking the safety of the yellow metal. Uncertainties remains and that will continue to keep gold bid, but for the time being and with little economic data the market has restored value to those assets hit by the post Brexit shock."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.30 14:52

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canadian GDP and 18 pips range price movement

2016-06-30 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "After decreasing in February and March, real gross domestic product edged up 0.1% in April. Widespread gains, notably in manufacturing, utilities and the public sector, were largely offset by a significant decline in non-conventional oil extraction."
  • "Service-producing industries rose 0.2% in April, after being essentially unchanged in March. Notable gains were posted by the public sector (education, health and public administration combined), the finance and insurance sector, and wholesale and retail trade. In contrast, the arts, entertainment and recreation sector notably declined."
  • "The output of goods-producing industries edged down 0.1% in April, mainly as a result of a decrease in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Manufacturing and utilities posted notable increases, while the agriculture and forestry sector was down."

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USD/CAD M5: 18 pips range price movement by Canadian GDP news event :



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Price loves the green zone 

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