Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 7

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.09 19:47

Remarks by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, at City Week, London, 9 May 2016 (ECB source)

  • "The ECB will continue to do what is necessary to achieve its goal of reaching a level of inflation close to 2 percent and enough policy tools can still be used."
  • "Our monetary policy has been effective. We have to allow some time for the package of measures adopted in March to produce its effects, while closely monitoring external developments."
  • "Other actors need to do their part in order to deliver a sustainable recovery and boost the productive capacity of countries."
  • "...Combined, this would make the euro area fit to deliver a more prosperous future for its citizens."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.10 11:25

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Dudley Speech and 16 pips price movement

2016-05-10 07:15 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]

[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = Speech in a panel discussion about the international monetary system, in Zurich.

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"The dollar’s dominant reserve currency status has sometimes been referred to as the United States’ “exorbitant privilege,” implying that the U.S. benefits extraordinarily from this privileged status.  I’d argue that the situation is much more nuanced.  Yes, this status does allow the U.S. to benefit from seigniorage.  More than half of all U.S. currency outstanding is held abroad.  But, there are also costs of being the dominant reserve currency.  For example, this can lead to shifts in the valuation of the dollar that are due primarily to developments abroad that affect risk appetites and international capital flows.  In such cases, the dollar’s valuation can be pushed to levels inconsistent with U.S. economic fundamentals.

I welcome other countries’ progress toward achieving the preconditions necessary for their currencies to attain the stature of a reserve currency.  However, we should not act as if this is sufficient to achieve a well-functioning global financial system.  In particular, the current regime is inefficient in a number of important ways.  Countries have found it necessary to self-insure against the risk of large capital flow reversals.  This has led to a very sharp rise in aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings.  This form of self-insurance is very expensive—especially when the return on the foreign exchange reserve portfolio is less than the cost of the domestic liabilities that fund these holdings.  As I have said in the past, I encourage more work to examine whether there are other more efficient regimes that, for example, would economize on required foreign exchange reserve buffers.  In this regard, I think expanding the capacity of the IMF’s resources and working to further de-stigmatize drawing on the IMF’s liquidity facilities could be worthwhile steps in this direction."

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips price movement by FOMC Member Dudley Speech news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.12 15:12

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Jobless Claims and 20 pips price movement

2016-05-12 12:30 GMT | [USD - Jobless Claims]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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"Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 for the week ended May 7, the highest level since late February 2015."

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EUR/USD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.13 08:22

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German GDP and 17 pips price movement

2016-05-13 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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EUR/USD M5: 17 pips price movement by German GDP news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.13 15:10

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Advance Retail Sales and 35 pips price movement

2016-05-13 12:30 GMT | [USD - Advance Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Advance Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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EUR/USD M5: 35 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event :




Abraam Magdy
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Abraam Magdy  
good work 
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.16 12:23

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: intra-day bearish, daily correction

H4 price is located below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the ranging market condition within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1361 resistance level located near 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart, and
  • 1.1282 support level located below 200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

If the price breaks 1.1361 level to above so the intra-day bullish reversal will be started, and if the price breaks 1.1282 level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.


Daily price is located above 200 SMA for the bullish market condition: price is testing 1.1282 support level for the secondary correction to be continuing.


United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD price to be on downtrend with 1.1215 target:

"The unexpected breach of 1.1350 and 1.1300 last Friday has shifted the risk to the downside. While the outlook for EUR is bearish from here, the downside potential appears to be limited to a test of April’s low of 1.1210/15. Downward momentum is only beginning to improve and a break back above 1.1400 is enough to indicate that a short-term low is in place."

  • If daily price will break 1.1215 support on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary daily bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.17 10:50

Trading News Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Even though Fed officials see scope for two rate-hikes in 2016, signs of a slower-than-expected recovery may push the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further delay the normalization cycle amid the external risks surrounding the real economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

EURUSD M5 timeframe


M5 price is located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the bullish market condition. The price is in ranging within the following key s/r levels:

  • Fibo resistance level at 1.1339 located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • Fibo support level at 1.1310 located below 200 period SMA in the primary bearish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be started.

If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.1310 on close bar so we may see the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1339 on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1339 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 1.1310 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish to correction
Resistance
Support
1.13391.1310
N/A
N/A

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.17 14:44

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 14 pips price movement

2016-05-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 14 pips price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.18 21:43

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Meeting Minutes and 66 pips price movement

2016-05-18 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = Record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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"Participants agreed that their ongoing assessments of the data and other incoming information, as well as the implications for the outlook, would determine the timing and pace of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy. Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June. Participants expressed a range of views about the likelihood that incoming information would make it appropriate to adjust the stance of policy at the time of the next meeting. Several participants were concerned that the incoming information might not provide sufficiently clear signals to determine by mid-June whether an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would be warranted. Some participants expressed more confidence that incoming data would prove broadly consistent with economic conditions that would make an increase in the target range in June appropriate. Some participants were concerned that market participants may not have properly assessed the likelihood of an increase in the target range at the June meeting, and they emphasized the importance of communicating clearly over the intermeeting period how the Committee intends to respond to economic and financial developments."

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EUR/USD M5: 66 pips price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event :



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