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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 6

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 01.05 - 08.05: daily bullish, weekly ranging bullish breakout, monthly bearish ranging within narrow levels

Daily price is on local primary bullish market condition for 1.1464 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing. Chinkou Span line and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the bullish trend in the near future, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible condition as the ranging bullish.

If D1 price will break 1.1214 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1464 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1464 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1214 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.14641.1214
N/A
1.1143

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : breakout

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.02 07:21

EUR/USD: 1.1495 resistance level tested; AUD/USD: daily correction with symetric triangle pattern to be broken to below (based on the article)

EUR/USD

  • "For now, our bias is for price and retracement resistance at 1.1495 to ideally cap – the October 2015 and April 2016 highs and 78.6% retracement of the August/December decline – with a break below 1.1144/06 needed to mark a fresh top in the range, for a slide back to 1.0883/22 initially."
  • "Above 1.1495 would suggest strength can extend back to the 1.1714 August 2015 high, and more likely 1.1808 – the 38.2% retracement of the 2014/2015 collapse."
  • "With a multi-year top in place we remain of the view this range will eventually be resolved to the downside, for a move to our parity target, but there is a clear risk we could yet see further lengthy ranging first, even a deeper recovery."




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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.02 15:57

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: USD Fed's Lockhart Remarks and 21 pips price movement

2016-05-02 12:50 GMT | [USD - Fed's Lockhart Remarks]

  • past data is n/a
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - Fed's Lockhart Remarks] = USD Fed's Lockhart Makes Introductory Remarks in Florida.

==========

EUR/USD M5: 21 pips price movement by USD Fed's Lockhart Remarks news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.02 16:26

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and 33 pips price movement

2016-05-02 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = The speech at the Asian Development Bank's 49th Annual Meeting, in Frankfurt.

==========

"The global low interest rate environment is a symptom of challenges in the world economy, not its cause. If interest rates are to rise again to sustainably higher levels, it is those underlying causes that need to be addressed. This is true at a global level, and it is true in the euro area."

"In the euro area, we need expansionary macroeconomic stabilisation policy to support demand, starting of course with monetary policy. That will allow inflation to return to our objective and, in time, for policy interest rates to rise back to their long-term levels."

"But monetary policy cannot raise long-term real rates. That can only be achieved by structural reforms that elicit a structural rebalancing of saving and investment. Higher real returns on savings must come through decisive action on the supply side."

"In this context, there is also a third type of policy that would support both demand in the short-term and supply in the medium-term, and which is unique to Europe. That is committed reform of euro area governance that can remove lingering doubts about its future."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 33 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event :



Sergey Golubev:

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 01.05 - 08.05: daily bullish, weekly ranging bullish breakout, monthly bearish ranging within narrow levels

Daily price is on local primary bullish market condition for 1.1464 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing. Chinkou Span line and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the bullish trend in the near future, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible condition as the ranging bullish.

If D1 price will break 1.1214 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1464 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1464 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1214 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.14641.1214
N/A
1.1143

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : breakout

The daily bar was opened at 1.1458 and the price is breaking 1.1464 resistance level to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing. Trend Strength idnicator, Absolute Strength indicator and Chinkou Span line are estimating the trend as a bullish in the near future (for this week for example):


By the way, the new resistance level was formed by the price and we can see it on H4 chart: 1.1534 - if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish breakout will be continuing.



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 13:36

Trading the News: ISM Non-Manufacturing (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Despite the ongoing 9 to1 split within the Federal Open Market Committee, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may come under increased pressure to further normalize monetary policy at the next quarterly meeting June especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Climbs to 54.8 or Higher
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Gauge for Service-Based Activity Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • EUR/USD may make a more meaningful run at the August high (1.1713) as it breaks out of the triangle/wedge formation in April, but the pair stands at risk for a near-term pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to push above 70 and appears to be turning around ahead of overbought territory.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

Sergey Golubev:

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 01.05 - 08.05: daily bullish, weekly ranging bullish breakout, monthly bearish ranging within narrow levels

Daily price is on local primary bullish market condition for 1.1464 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing. Chinkou Span line and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the bullish trend in the near future, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible condition as the ranging bullish.

If D1 price will break 1.1214 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1464 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1464 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1214 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.14641.1214
N/A
1.1143

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : breakout

New daily support/resistance levels was formed for now:

  • 1.1615 resistance for the bullish trend to be continuing if broken;
  • 1.1431 support for the secondary correction to be started (if this level will be broken by the price to below).


The bearish 'reversal' level is 1.1295, and of the price breaks this level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.06 12:01

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ a further improvement in the labor market paired with signs of stronger wage growth may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the benchmark interest rate at the next quarterly meeting in June as the central bank risks falling behind the curve.

Nevertheless, waning business confidence along with the slowdown in household consumption may prompt U.S. firms to scale back on hiring, and a dismal employment report may drag on the U.S. dollar as market participants push out bets for higher borrowing-costs.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Expands 200K+, Jobless Rate Narrows

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.06 15:03


EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event :




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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.06 19:15

EUR: Gentle Downtrend; AUD: New Targets - Credit Agricole (based on the article)

EUR:


  • "Once again we revise our forecasts for EUR to the upside to account for the recent very disappointing US data, the persistent dovish shift in the Fed’s outlook and the change in the reaction function of the ECB."
  • "While we expect the Fed to resume its tightening cycle later this year, we believe that the shift in the ECB's focus away from trying to cheapen EUR and towards boosting domestic demand through the Eurozone lending channel is here to stay. Our new projections still see EUR/USD on a gentle downtrend, mainly because we still expect the Fed to deliver a total of four rate hikes this and next year."

AUD:


  • "The RBA surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut this month, putting an end to the AUD rally. From current levels, we see limited scope for further AUD/USD upside given AUD long positions are now at extended levels (as indicated by our G10 positioning index – Longs in commodity currencies starting to look stretched); moreover, sentiment towards the USD is already quite bearish."
  • "We retain our bearish view on AUD/USD supported by diverging monetary policies and the arguments stated above. We forecast AUD/USD to maintain a downward trajectory over the next year, reaching 0.70 in Q217."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.07 09:45

Forex Weekly Outlook May 9-13 (based on the article)

Graeme Wheeler’s speech, US Crude Oil Inventories, rate decision, Mark Carney’s speech, US Unemployment Claims, Retail sales, Producer Prices and consumer sentiment. These are the main events on Forex calendar.

  1. Graeme Wheeler speaks: Tuesday, 22:05. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler will speak in Wellington to elaborate on the economic factors which prompted the last cash rate decision towards the end of April.
  2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  3. UK Rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England decided to keep rates unchanged at its April meeting aiming to reach the 2% inflation target and maintain growth and employment. The MPC members forecast the Bank rate will rise to ensure inflation returns to the target in a sustainable fashion. However, the EU referendum effects may spoil forecasts.
  4. Mark Carney speaks: Thursday, 12:45. The Bank of England governor Mark Carney will speak in London about the Inflation.
  5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30.
  6. German GDP data: Friday, 7:00.
  7. US retail sales: Friday, 13:30.
  8. US PPI: Friday, 13:30.
  9. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer confidence declined for the fourth straight month in April registered 89.7 from 91 posted in March amid growing concerns about weaker economic growth. Analysts expected a positive reading of 91.9.

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