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Something Interesting in Financial Video May 2015
Sergey Golubev, 2015.04.29 11:36
Introduction to Forex Price Action Trading
What is Price Action?
Price action is a particular methodology employed by traders, based on
the observation and interpretation of price action, usually through the
use of candlestick or bar charts. The price action style of trading is
usually characterized by clean charts, without indicators, with the
explanation that indicators are themselves interpretations of the
historical movements of price, which don't contain any information or
predictive power that isn't available from the charts themselves.
Nonetheless, some traders include basic indicators, such as exponential
moving averages or average true range to augment their charts or to
provide confluence. The attitude of the price action trader is that the
interpretation of price movements can provide an edge, a possibility of
being more right than wrong in their predictions about the future
behavior of price.
The basics of reading candles and charts
Since candlestick and bar charts are the fundamental interface of the
price action trader, the most basic unit is the candle or bar itself.
Candles sum up the price action over a set period of time: on a 5 minute
chart, each candle represents 5 minutes of price behavior, whereas on a
daily chart, only one candle is produced per day. The body of the
candle constitutes the range between the open price and close price,
whereas the wicks or shadows of the candle indicate the high and low
over that period of trading. Various color schemes are used to determine
whether the price movement represented by the candle is bullish
(increasing in price) or bearish (decreasing in price); bullish candles
are usually white, blue, or green, whereas bearish candles are usually
black or red.
Support and resistance lines are typically horizontal, but when they are diagonal along a trend they are known as trend lines. The basic idea behind using support and resistance effectively in a
trading range is to buy at the support level and sell at resistance in
an uptrend, or to sell at resistance and buy at support in a downtrend;
so, we're not necessarily hoping for a break-out through the established
levels, because a break-out means that the market isn't behaving
predictably enough to allow for safe bets on its future performance.
Instead, the most conservative or reliable trades are those that occur
as the market fluctuates between identifiable support and resistance
levels, allowing you, in an uptrend, to buy when a retracement of
bearish leg has brought prices down to a support level, and then sell
when price returns to the resistance level, or, in a downtrend, to sell
when price is maxed out at a reliable resistance level. The reason we
are looking to buy in an uptrend and sell in a downtrend is that price
action trading is all about playing the odds, so trading with the trend
rather than against it is usually a better idea since a trend is
statistically more likely to continue than to reverse.
Basic Set-ups and Stop PlacementMost price action traders place buy or sell stop orders with a
pre-determined stop loss level, and a take profit or target level. The
buy or sell stop sets the level that price much reach for the order to
be filled; the stop loss level sets the margin of loss that a trader
will accept before closing the position; the take profit level sets the
level at which to automatically close a successful position. The buy or sell stop, or entry level, is typically set at a significant
support or resistance level so that it will only be filled when price
has broken definitively in the desired direction; by setting strategic
entry levels in their orders, traders can ensure that they enter trades
with the momentum of the market.
Something Interesting in Financial Video May 2014
Sergey Golubev, 2014.05.22 10:30
Strategy Video: Strategy For Low and Extreme Volatility Conditions
Volatility readings slid to extreme lows this past session - implying a
correction in activity levels and markets may soon be at hand. From the
equities-based VIX, a slide between 12 percent draws us to levels only
seen two other times in the past seven years. Readings in FX and other
financial assets have sported similar elevations. Our natural
inclination is to project a reversal to match the magnitude of our
current extremes. However, that eventual systemic change may take time
and numerous false starts. There are more immediate opportunities for
oscillations in activity levels. We look at this situation from a short,
medium and long-term perspective while also highlighting the different
trade options through the scale in today's Strategy Video.
VIX & VXN Volatility Indexes
The $VIX is the 30-day annualized implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index
Options. In addition, the $VXN is the 30-day annualized implied volatility of
the Nasdaq 100 Index Options. When markets crash or move downward quickly, put
options become popular. Traders bid up the price of these put options, which
manifests itself as an increase in the implied volatility level; thus an
increase in the $VIX and $VXN index. The basic relationship between stock and
index prices and the $VIX and $VXN is presented next:
This basic relationship is summed up by a famous traders' saying: "When the
VIX is high it's time to buy; when the VIX is low it's time to go."
The following chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY), top half
of chart, shows the inverse relationship between it and the $VIX Volatility
Index, bottom half of chart:
Notice how an uptrend in the price of the S&P 500 is accompanied by a
downtrend in the level of the $VIX.
The next chart of the Nasdaq 100 exchange traded fund (QQQQ) shows how great
buying opportunities are when the $VXN spikes higher:
When the $VIX or $VXN spike (usually they both spike during the same periods)
buy. If history repeats itself, which it has done often, buying $VIX and $VXN
spikes has proven quite profitable. Nevertheless, the Mutual Fund mantra
applies: "Past performance is not indicative of future performance".
Something Interesting in Financial Video October 2013
Sergey Golubev, 2013.09.30 11:19
Interview With Richard Duncan, Author of The New Depression
Richard Duncan's web site: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com
The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Pap
the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature
of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation
were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth
ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had
been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation
and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy,
Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory
of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its
causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the
crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will
affect asset prices and investment portfolios.
In his previous book, The Dollar Crisis
(2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was
inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international
monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic
system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires
credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional
debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly.
Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression
will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and
geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book
describes what must be done to prevent it.
Alarming but essential reading, The New Depression
explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling
into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.
Here's a summary of the points discussed:
1. The book starts with a discussion of fractional reserve banking,
observing the connection between debt and money and how debt and
inflation go together.
2. Richard views the current monetary system as flawed and in trouble,
but does not view a return to a gold standard of any kind as possible.
Rather, he thinks the best hope is for governments to attempt to borrow
at very low rates and invest not in consumption but in growth -- invest
in projects that will offer a high economic return. He cites investing
in a new energy grid as an example.
3. Richard does not view China dumping US Treasuries, or the world
decoupling from the dollar as a viable threat. This seems to be part of
why he believes there are a few more years left where low interest rates
4. In terms of investments, Richard favors real estate that can be
turned into rental income. He finds public stocks to be a bit too close
to the derivatives crisis, and does not think gold is immune to a severe
decline if growth cannot be obtained.
Professional Traders Vs Retail Traders 101 - Part 1
Forex Strategy easy and simple
shemoalaa80, 2015.06.06 22:29
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FPS Frame 1 hour
Couples the four major pairs in addition to the
Australian and Canadian
know the full strategy in the following video
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.07 18:21
EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 8, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD pair
initially rallied during the course of the week, but then pullback in
order to form a massive shooting star like candle. However, we broke the
top of the hammer from the previous week, and did stay above there.
Because of that we feel that there is bullish pressure underneath, and
that this market will continue to go higher. We have no interest in
selling from a longer-term perspective, but recognize that short-term
buyers will probably continue to come back into this market again and
again. If we can get above the 1.15 level, we are long-term buyers.
Something Interesting in Financial Video January 2014
Sergey Golubev, 2013.12.31 08:44
Ichimoku - Advanced Ichimoku Strategies Additional Criteria
shemoalaa80, 2015.06.12 12:45
My way of trading simple for beginners Ideal for professionals show the following video and know more about it
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.14 11:02
Key Technical Levels Remain for USD-pairs as Week Ends (based on dailyfx article)
"It's a much quieter day on the economic calendar, with only one event
due over the next few hours that qualifies as a 'medium' or 'high'
ranked event to close out the week. Instead, attention will be focused
on two developing themes as the week draws to a close: the rebound in US
economic data; and the negotiations surrounding Greece."