Honest question: Is this backtest result worth pursuing further? - page 2
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Summary 29 bulan (Jan 2024 – Mei 2026) — Pips Mode:
Thanks Bambang, really appreciate the detailed feedback. Let me address each point:
1. Backtest timeframe — Already extended! Just posted 17-month data for Icham above. I also ran 29 months (Jan 2024 – May 2026): PF 1.34, Recovery 4.82, 1,631 trades, 22/29 months profitable. 2024 had 5 loss months — which I think is the most honest representation of core performance.
2. Every tick based on real ticks — Confirmed, all tests use "Every tick based on real ticks" at 99% history quality, not just "Every tick." 160 million ticks for the 29-month run.
3. Equity DD 46.16% — Valid concern. That figure is from an earlier version (v2.9). Current version (v3.1) with circuit breaker + weekend gap filter brought max balance DD down to 32% on the 29-month test. Still not ideal, but significantly better. Working on it.
4. Logic filter vs cooldown — This is the most valuable suggestion. You're right that cooldown alone is a band-aid. The consecutive loss streak in April 2026 was caused by the EA repeatedly entering longs during a 3-day sharp correction — the H1 EMA was still bullish but price was clearly bearish. Adding Market Structure or Price Action filter (e.g. recent swing high/low break confirmation) would be a more surgical fix. This is on the roadmap for v3.2.
5. Cent account forward test — Planned. Will run on cent account before any standard account deployment. No live trading until forward test shows consistency.
Again, appreciate the honest critique — this is exactly the kind of feedback that makes a difference.
Congrats! You got it. You have to decrease your DD, improve your PF without affecting your profit.
Thank you Icham, really appreciate the encouraging words!
On the DD — noted, that's the priority before going live. The circuit breaker in v3.2 should help but I'll monitor it closely on demo.
Regarding the unprecedented market — that's actually reassuring to hear. The backtest covers Jan 2024–May 2026 (29 months, 1,631 trades) so at least there's some context, but I understand no backtest fully captures what's happening right now with XAU.
Will run demo first and report back. Thanks again for the honest feedback.
Thank you Icham, really appreciate the encouraging words!
On the DD — noted, that's the priority before going live. The circuit breaker in v3.2 should help but I'll monitor it closely on demo.
Regarding the unprecedented market — that's actually reassuring to hear. The backtest covers Jan 2024–May 2026 (29 months, 1,631 trades) so at least there's some context, but I understand no backtest fully captures what's happening right now with XAU.
Will run demo first and report back. Thanks again for the honest feedback.
You're welcome. But you don't have to tell us, it's your business 👍
A good backtest is only the first step.
I usually check:
If the strategy only works on one specific period, I would be cautious.
200 trades isnt enough check different market conditions bear bull consolidaying etc etc
@wayneg1 — total trade count is 1,265, not 200. Happy to share the monthly P/L breakdown if useful.
Forward test is currently running live on XM Global. I'll keep the thread posted as more data accumulates.
@wayneg1 — total trade count is 1,265, not 200. Happy to share the monthly P/L breakdown if useful.
Forward test is currently running live on XM Global. I'll keep the thread posted as more data accumulates.
If your topic/thread has low activity, it simply means that no one is interested.
Please keep posted more data - on your Wall or Blog.
If your topic/thread has low activity, it simply means that no one is interested.
If you want usefull feedback test in points mode with a balance of 100k and 1 lot fixed and post the result. There is no way to judge the true performance of the strategy if money managment is applied.