Honest question: Is this backtest result worth pursuing further?

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Hey everyone,

Long-time lurker, first time posting something like this. I've been building an EA based on BBMA methodology (Bollinger Bands + Multiple Moving Averages) applied on XAUUSD, and I've finally reached a point where the backtest numbers look... surprisingly good. Maybe too good, which is exactly why I'm here asking for a reality check from people who actually know what they're doing.

Setup:

  • Symbol: XAUUSD
  • Chart: M10 (main), M5 + M1 for confirmation
  • Period: Jan 1 – May 14, 2026
  • Initial deposit: $100 / Leverage 1:1000
  • History quality: 100% (tick data)

Results:

Metric Value
Net Profit $2,020.64 (+2,020%)
Profit Factor 1.52
Sharpe Ratio 5.81
Recovery Factor 1.74
Max Balance DD 31.21%
Max Equity DD 46.16%
Win Rate 68.31%
Total Trades 284
LR Correlation 0.70

To be fully transparent: this is backtest only. No forward test yet. I'm aware that backtest results can be misleading — curve fitting, broker spread differences, slippage in live conditions, etc. I'm not here to sell anything.

What I genuinely want to know from the more experienced builders here:

  1. Are there any obvious red flags in these numbers I should investigate before moving forward?
  2. The max consecutive loss is 13 trades — I've already identified the root cause (a 3-day sharp correction in April where the EA kept buying into a downtrend). Is adding a MaxConsecutiveLoss cooldown parameter a reasonable fix, or is there a better approach?
  3. At what point would you personally consider a backtest "good enough" to start a forward test?

I know the only real test is live/demo performance. Just trying to learn from people who've been through this process before.

Thanks in advance.

data backtest
 
Rohiman:

Hey everyone,

Long-time lurker, first time posting something like this. I've been building an EA based on BBMA methodology (Bollinger Bands + Multiple Moving Averages) applied on XAUUSD, and I've finally reached a point where the backtest numbers look... surprisingly good. Maybe too good, which is exactly why I'm here asking for a reality check from people who actually know what they're doing.

Setup:

  • Symbol: XAUUSD
  • Chart: M10 (main), M5 + M1 for confirmation
  • Period: Jan 1 – May 14, 2026
  • Initial deposit: $100 / Leverage 1:1000
  • History quality: 100% (tick data)

Results:

Metric Value
Net Profit $2,020.64 (+2,020%)
Profit Factor 1.52
Sharpe Ratio 5.81
Recovery Factor 1.74
Max Balance DD 31.21%
Max Equity DD 46.16%
Win Rate 68.31%
Total Trades 284
LR Correlation 0.70

To be fully transparent: this is backtest only. No forward test yet. I'm aware that backtest results can be misleading — curve fitting, broker spread differences, slippage in live conditions, etc. I'm not here to sell anything.

What I genuinely want to know from the more experienced builders here:

  1. Are there any obvious red flags in these numbers I should investigate before moving forward?
  2. The max consecutive loss is 13 trades — I've already identified the root cause (a 3-day sharp correction in April where the EA kept buying into a downtrend). Is adding a MaxConsecutiveLoss cooldown parameter a reasonable fix, or is there a better approach?
  3. At what point would you personally consider a backtest "good enough" to start a forward test?

I know the only real test is live/demo performance. Just trying to learn from people who've been through this process before.

Thanks in advance.


Red Flag: Chart Bias.
Desc: if price continuously goes up, and your strategy is tending to long positions, thats a problem.


One possible solution:

Check the balance between long and short positions. - count them and get the ratio.

Record the initial price of your testing period, record the end price of your testing period.
Use the average volume of all your positions and establish the gain on start to end price.

Calculate a virtual positions gain for the tested timeframe as a short and as a long. With the gain on the profitable virtual position you get the chart bias.

One possible application:
The bias-gain can now be divided by the time spans minutes, and you get the bias per minute. You can now apply this to your individual real positions and "remove" the chart bias from their gains.


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