Why martingale EAs look profitable… until they aren’t (especially on gold) - page 8

[Hesham Ahmed Kamal Barakat]

When a gold EA starts surviving only by averaging or martingale, I’d treat that as a warning sign rather than a recovery method. A more stable path is: - cut position size first - separate signal quality from money management - test the same logic with wider spread/slippage assumptions - check out-of-sample and forward-test behavior before scaling again If the strategy only works by escalating exposure, the edge is usually in delay, not in robustness. Gold tends to expose that quickly.

[Rachid El Jaafari]

In my opinion, using a Martingale system by itself is basically gambling, sooner or later, the profits you've made are likely to be lost because the strategy has a fundamental limitation: it cannot continue indefinitely. Martingale is always limited by your account balance, and eventually the market will push the system to a margin call if nothing changes.

That's why I believe a Martingale strategy needs an intelligent decision-making layer that knows when to continue and when to stop before reaching dangerous margin levels., this could be based on market conditions, volatility, trading sessions, range filters, trend analysis, timing, or other factors that reduce the probability of entering an endless losing sequence...

For my own project, I've developed a different approach that's currently being tested, so instead of risking additional money from my own pocket, the system only "gambles" with the profits it has already generated., so far, the results have been very encouraging, and I'm working hard to improve it even further  .

At the moment, the system is achieving around 6–10% profit, which I don't consider enough , so my goal is to continue refining it until it can consistently generate much higher returns, ideally around 70% on the invested capital, while keeping the risk under control.