Why martingale EAs look profitable… until they aren’t (especially on gold) - page 2

New comment
 
Victor Paul Hamilton #:
[J]ust reverse the logic to small loss small loss small loss small loss...

That is not a true reversal of Martingale logic, but rather a minor modification. Losers are still losers regardless of the size of each loss.

For a true reversal of the Martingale strategy, use an anti-Martingale strategy that stacks winning trades in decreasing lot sizes. When the price swing inevitably ends, the largest trade will have the most profit. The smallest trade in the swing will be the one that gets stopped out.

 
Ryan L Johnson #:

That is not a true reversal of Martingale logic, but rather a minor modification. Losers are still losers regardless of the size of each loss.

For a true reversal of the Martingale strategy, use an anti-Martingale strategy that stacks winning trades in decreasing lot sizes. When the price swing inevitably ends, the largest trade will have the most profit. The smallest trade in the swing will be the one that gets stopped out.

Hmm running a demo and stepping in when you see the death spiral start  is the optimal play ,if it doesn't you have not lost much ,If it does the upside when it does is worth it . 
 
Victor Paul Hamilton #:
[T]he death spiral start is the optimal play, if it doesn't you have not lost much...
Correct. In an anti-Martingale strategy, Martingale's "death spiral" is actually a profit pyramid. No concurrent demo account required.
 
Ryan L Johnson #:
Correct. In an anti-Martingale strategy, Martingale's "death spiral" is actually a profit pyramid. No concurrent demo account required.
So we all just run anti- martingale and become rich . I'd rather take my chance on demo then step in .You see let's get to the real truth most EA's in general are trash and you will lose money , so why not just run the EA  on  a demo see when that inevitable  sting comes  and step in with real money .No because most people in retail Forex are amateurs and gamblers and that is boring and not sexy . Retail Forex does  not get to peek behind the curtain and is at the mercy of the collective elite and whatever games they decide to play . Like a casino or a bookie negative EV is the play the long term grind down . People if they choose to play a rigged game need to come up with novel ways to not buy in to the playbook. 
 
Victor Paul Hamilton #:
So we all just run anti- martingale and become rich . I'd rather take my chance on demo then step in...

Frankly, I don't see how a demo account is a fortune teller. If your demo account logic is a holy grail for entries, why not simply put that logic into your live account EA. Surely the pips or points run can be quantiified.

FYI... Price has to be confined to a narrow range for a very long time to blow up an anti-Martingale strategy. Check out this related post:

"Advantage: Unlike random scalping strategies (Z-Score ~0), this allows for aggressive Anti-Martingale money management. We can mathematically predict that a win is likely to be followed by another win, allowing us to pyramid positions safely" (

Profit Factor 4.09 & Negative Z-Score: Why I Stopped "Gambling" on M1 Scalping and Embraced the "Boring" Math of Swing Trading - Volatility Trading Strategies - Trading Systems - MQL5 programming forum).
12
New comment