Do you trade or have you ever traded “Boom” and “Crash”? - page 4

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Amos Tsopotsa #:

thank you for sharing 

betting houses have this tendency but i am very sure that statistical application of probabilities can be applied to these asset classes, I have a team of professors in mathematics and statistics, who have advised how to go about it ,i then created and Expert advisor around that just for demonstrative purposes i will attach the source  code tomorrow when done with a few touch ups,the idea around most of these book makers is based on  Wiener process

 
I have been working on this code using perceptron's ,i want to make this a multilayer so that is can give stable results for now you can try on demo, you can also optimize and get better settings, if you would want to test how this works just plug and play on all asset classes available on the broker using the 1 minute time frame ,my hope is to have a bigger community we can share ideas around this project. I am working on a MATLAB project around the same idea.
Files:
White_Horse.mq5  21 kb
 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Why is it that BOOM and CRASH indexes can not respect Stop and Take profit levels

Amos Tsopotsa, 2022.10.03 17:33

If you have traded BOOM and Crash you will notice that the STOP loss levels are not Respected neither are the Take profit levels ,i have done so much research around this issue, what code could be used to avoid these ,what can be done ,for those who don't understand how they work ,i am very sure many coders on mql5 have met clients requesting something along these lines, what have you done differently that works.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Why is it that BOOM and CRASH indexes can not respect Stop and Take profit levels

Enrique Dangeroux, 2022.10.03 17:39

From what i understand is, they are triggerd only at the close price of the candle (slippage). This is how the the "system" works. There is no code that could help.

It is a clear cause for conflict of interest sending your stop levels to a broker which is generating the bars :)

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Why is it that BOOM and CRASH indexes can not respect Stop and Take profit levels

Fernando Carreiro, 2022.10.03 17:40

It is called slippage, and you should have posted on my thread, since that is dedicated to these very symbols.

The same happens with every other symbol, but these two in particular have very large spikes or drops, inherent to their nature, and I explain that in my observations ...

"On the M1 chart, however, it can be tricky because of their sudden spikes (“Boom”) or drops (“Crash”), making it very difficult if not impossible to use stops because of the slippage that will occur if the stops are too tight. One requires a unique approach to scalp the M1 or the tick chart, but on a whole I totally enjoyed myself trading manually, which I have not done for a long time."


 
Fernando Carreiro #:

If the house sets the price and you cant control this as a trader what does this mean, each spike is a reset of the price, could be classified in many way that i understand, at the end the house focuses more on how many buyers and sellers are in the market. There after they can take the opposite side of the trade, I have tried to enquire on the third party doing audits, for fair trading practises,to cut the story  shot ,its a betting system created on MT5,its just gambling

 
Amos Tsopotsa #: If the house sets the price and you cant control this as a trader what does this mean, each spike is a reset of the price, could be classified in many way that i understand, at the end the house focuses more on how many buyers and sellers are in the market. There after they can take the opposite side of the trade, I have tried to enquire on the third party doing audits, for fair trading practises,to cut the story  shot ,its a betting system created on MT5,its just gambling

There is nothing unfair about the spikes and drops. It is inherent to the symbols behaviour. It is explained upfront to you and is even included in the symbols description, telling you how it behaves.

If you as the trader, don't know how to interpret that and be able to analyse it statistically to find your edge, then you have no place trading it. You should focus on other types of symbols, instead of accusing them of being "unfair".

Life is "unfair". The Universe is "unfair". Yet, we use inelegance to navigate around the "unfairness" to our own advantages. Do the same. Use maths and statistics to find your edge.

Stop blaming others for your lack of being unable to "beat the system". Instead, learn, gain experience, improve your knowledge, until you are able to get an advantage over it.

 
Fernando Carreiro #:

There is nothing unfair about the spikes and drops. It is inherent to the symbols behaviour. It is explained upfront to you and is even included in the symbols description, telling you how it behaves.

If you as the trader, don't know how to interpret that and be able to analyse it statistically to find your edge, then you have no place trading it. You should focus on other types of symbols, instead of accusing them of being "unfair".

Life is "unfair". The Universe is "unfair". Yet, we use inelegance to navigate around the "unfairness" to our own advantages. Do the same. Use maths and statistics to find your edge.

Stop blaming others for your lack of being unable to "beat the system". Instead, learn, gain experience, improve your knowledge, until you are able to get an advantage over it.

i am sure the discussion has gone the wrong way key points are on the first discussion we have made ,and that this is a betting system ,i shared the white paper which you asked me to pull down and i did just like that ,lets wait for more inputs from other traders ,key points i will need more time to come and update on this same forum 

 
Amos Tsopotsa #: i am sure the discussion has gone the wrong way key points are on the first discussion we have made ,and that this is a betting system ,i shared the white paper which you asked me to pull down and i did just like that ,lets wait for more inputs from other traders ,key points i will need more time to come and update on this same forum 
That was not an independent White Paper, but a link to a brokers patent details, which had nothing to do with this. That is why a requested you delete it.
 
can i share my own white paper here around the theories
 
Amos Tsopotsa #: can i share my own white paper here around the theories

I'm not a moderator. You are free to do as you wish. All I ask is that you don't go against the rules I outlined in my initial posts.

I would also like to ask, that the information be related and not derail the thread.

 

For those that truly wish to understand and not be swayed by their “unfairness”, Boom and Crash are specifically designed to create and exploit “chaos”. As their names obviously state, they can and will suddenly “boom” (price spike), or “crash” (price drop), at the tick quote price level.

They create the illusion of a steady micro-trend and then suddenly reverse, knocking out any tight trailing-stop, while causing large slippage because of a single but large price change, sometimes larger than the entire micro-trend range before it. And there is no way of avoiding these large price slips. If you have an open trade with tight stops, they will be hit, with either a negative or positive slip, depending on what direction you are trading.

At other times, the micro-trend goes on for ages with only sporadic tiny single tick reversals, drawing the traders in, and then … suddenly several large reversals blow everything out of the water, acting as a statistical stop-hunt.

This is the allure (and the danger) of these two synthetics. It creates the illusion that they can be easily traded, but if you failed your college maths, or don’t really know your trading basics, you will be doomed. In other words, they are designed to attract the “newbies” and the inexperienced traders into letting go of their money on a promise of an easy profit.

However, there will be a minority of traders, who are wise to these “tricks”, that can see and appreciate the bigger picture. They will inevitably be able to factor in this very behaviour, in the statistical analysis and risk management to circumvent these dangers.

In my case, I’m still not there yet, but I can already see the light at the end of the tunnel. I still need more time to properly understand all of their mechanics. I have been doing this manually and not via an EA, because I concluded that there are some aspects of their behaviour that are influenced by the “traders” and by the dealing-desk trading against them. It is not entirely statistical, as I first suspected, but it is still mostly statistical, which allows for EA trading. If I were to use an EA to study them, I would not have been able to pick up on these nuances.

My next step is indeed moving to EA trading, which is what I ultimately want. I don’t want to trade manually long term. I’m only doing it to study them. And I will share some of the code I come up with when I get to that step. For now, observation and study are the keys to not be drawn in by greed.

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