Forward tested EA. What now?

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Hey all,

I have forward tested an EA that is supposedly meant to pass prop firm challenges. As far as it's performance in my test, it did what it said that it would do and so far as that test shows, it would have passes the prop firm challenge.

My questions is, is there any reason to believe that it would behave differently once set loose on a real challenge?

I spoke with a FTMO support person, and they told me that there should be no big differences. But, I would like some secondary confirmation on this to bolster my confidence before I spend the money.

Thanks all!

 
Tristen Shaw: I have forward tested an EA that is supposedly meant to pass prop firm challenges. As far as it's performance in my test, it did what it said that it would do and so far as that test shows, it would have passes the prop firm challenge. My questions is, is there any reason to believe that it would behave differently once set loose on a real challenge? I spoke with a FTMO support person, and they told me that there should be no big differences. But, I would like some secondary confirmation on this to bolster my confidence before I spend the money. Thanks all!

Without actually knowing the metrics of the test you carried out and the strategy being used, we can't answer that question for you. We can only speculate.

However, based on experience, I can tell you that market conditions (and strategy results) can turn on a dime, one moment to the next, without warning signs. It happens regularly, sometimes even several times a month depending on the market being traded.

Unless your strategy is truely adaptable and dynamic, you will need to constantly optimise (after the fact) to keep up with conditions.

 
Fernando Carreiro #:

Without actually knowing the metrics of the test you carried out and the strategy being used, we can't answer that question for you. We can only speculate.

However, based on experience, I can tell you that market conditions (and strategy results) can turn on a dime, one moment to the next, without warning signs. It happens regularly, sometimes even several times a month depending on the market being traded.

Unless your strategy is truely adaptable and dynamic, you will need to constantly optimise (after the fact) to keep up with conditions.

Yeah, I get that. But lets say that, instead of testing on a demo I had put the EA on an actual prop firm challenge. Is it likely that it would have performed the same or is there some difference between a demo and a live challenge that might effect it?

 
Seems you don't get it. Based on the information provided no one can say anything. The difference between demo and real is that demo is not real. Just put up 100 bucks, put it live and find out the answer yourslef.
 
Tristen Shaw #: Yeah, I get that. But lets say that, instead of testing on a demo I had put the EA on an actual prop firm challenge. Is it likely that it would have performed the same or is there some difference between a demo and a live challenge that might effect it?

You stated "forward test", which would lead me to interpret it as a "forward test" in the Strategy Tester. You did not say anything about running the EA "live" on a demo account for an entire month in order to validade if it would pass a prop challenge. Those are two completely different scenarios.

However, I hold to my initial statement. Without more information, we can only speculate.

 
Tristen Shaw:

Hey all,

I have forward tested an EA that is supposedly meant to pass prop firm challenges. As far as it's performance in my test, it did what it said that it would do and so far as that test shows, it would have passes the prop firm challenge.

My questions is, is there any reason to believe that it would behave differently once set loose on a real challenge?

I spoke with a FTMO support person, and they told me that there should be no big differences. But, I would like some secondary confirmation on this to bolster my confidence before I spend the money.

Thanks all!

i guess that you got the EA and waited some time and ran the test using the data between the time and now and you've got an expected result, or have been running on the demo server for sometime. It depends on how long the time span is. And did it include the uptrend market, downtrend market, sidewide market and volatile market. You could start on the live market with minimum bet and set it active only during the prime hours. It takes time to build up your confidence even if the EA is good.
 
Even if the EA passes the forward test or is incubated with a real account, there is no assurance that it will give the result you expect in the future.

Just find the endpoint of your workflow, and accept some risk.

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