what is a trend? - page 3
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The modern definition of a trend in a time series tends more towards the econometric definition and is a property of the random process that is used to model the series under study. The most common definition of a trend is that it is a deterministic function of time resulting from some decomposition of a random process. For example:
X1(t)=m(t)+S1(t); X2(t)=d(t)*S2(t), where X1(t) and X2(t) are initial processes, S1(t) and S2(t) are stationary processes, and m(t) and d(t) are deterministic functions which are called trends of mean and variance respectively.
As different random processes can be used as models for the same series, trends can be different. That is, a trend is not an unambiguously inherent object, but an abstraction depending on the tasks to be solved. An obvious example - a horizontal flat can be considered either a process with a zero trend of the mean, or a process with some kind of oscillating trend of the mean, depending on the value of SL and TP used.
I would like to hear different opinions on what a trend is. I found a definition of a trend on the internet a long time ago and I believe it is correct.
A trend is the willingness of the crowd (a pool of weak holders) to systematically lose money or sit on losses in a certain direction, caused by either news or technical events. I.e. a trend is the counter-phase of market expectations.
I would like to add another question. Why do trends appear?
A trend is +-1.5% half-flat. A flat is +-1.5% half-trend.
here and hereafter.
It's not hard to figure out. Some will and some won't, it's not a given...
In the Tip branch, where there are two Alexanders and a cat with them, and an unexperienced child who ran away for a walk in the next yard, it is clearly demonstrated what a trend is.
In fact, if we are in a flat, then we return to the average, and if we are in a trend, then we have a drift of the average, which is not in our favour.
It's a friend
Not for everyone :)
Without waves, there is no point in looking at a trend.
The order of the waves will give an indication of the trend.
Without waves, there is no point in looking at a trend.
The order of the waves will give an indication of the trend.
I can draw :) It's a "wave" Everything in the world is a wave. And everything can be expressed in a simple graph like this. For example, the processes of the sun. That is, the beginning when the fusion reaction erupts in the Sun, peaks and fades, when the fuel runs out, the Sun ceases to exist. The same graph can be used to describe the life of a man. From zero, then development, peak and extinction. In principle, anything can be expressed by this graph, including the market.
Without waves, there is no point in looking at a trend.
The order of the waves will give an indication of the trend.