Why an economic crisis is inevitable. - page 4

New comment
 

I will start by outlining my model of a collapse rather than a crisis.

To begin with, let us abstract away from the small details and grasp the whole idea.

The cost of goods produced, in the state as a whole, is equal to the sum of wages + other production costs + the sum of all deductions to the state + the entrepreneur's profit. We will highlight the salaries, it is the main thing in the system, it is solvent demand.

What are the contributions to the state? Salaries of officials, security forces, pensioners, civil servants, etc. That is, salaries again. And if an official buys a company car? These are salaries to workers in car factories, metallurgists, plastics manufacturers, etc.

Whatever the financial flow, it consists of the sum of the salaries of its participants + free natural resources. We don't pay anything to the earth for water, air or ore.

So, the effective demand of the population is simply the sum of salaries and other payments to the population of the state. And this amount is entirely included in the cost of goods produced. Here we get to the meat of the matter:the economy in a closed-loop system as a whole is always at a loss!!!

This is the main secret in our world. And what about the capitalist's profit, where does it come from? Nowhere. So capitalism in a closed system ends in historical perspective instantly, like a game of musical chairs.

Well, well, well. So the profit can only be taken from the foreign market, then everyone is fighting to the death for markets. They know where the dog's at... They just keep their mouths shut. It is not possible in the domestic market.

After all, even if everyone runs to the shops and spends every penny of their money, some of the goods will remain unredeemed, and that part will be equal to the overall profit of the economy. Here we go...

So, we have established that a capitalist state can only live if it sells on the foreign market, according to my calculations, no less than 20% of domestically produced goods.

Out of curiosity I looked at world statistics, we have the highest percentage, followed by China and Germany, both of which have exactly 20%. A huge thank you to the USSR for the oil and gas industry. Otherwise we would be in trouble now!

All the other major countries, with the exception of a few small export-oriented economies, are losers, their imports exceed exports. So the whole world is living in debt. We all know how debtors end up. It is just a matter of time. For example, the samurai have lost their nerve; they already have debts that exceed 250% of GDP. Well, Americans, of course, set an example, the debt is already over 20 trillion. What idiot was talking about Russia's economy being torn to shreds? Russia will die last! And we will catch a cold at your funeral.

We will talk about what to do some other time, if the public is interested.

 

By the way, about 5 years ago I analysed, combined the predictions of several soothsayers, including Vanga, and studies by economists such as Kondratiev and contemporary ones.

The conclusion was that for Russia the toughest year was 2019, and that from the next one a gradual growth would begin. And for Europe it is just starting. And in the US the recession (of varying degrees) could last until 2050.

 
Edgar:

By the way, about 5 years ago I analysed, combined the predictions of several soothsayers, including Vanga, and studies by economists such as Kondratiev and contemporary ones.

The conclusion was that for Russia the toughest year was 2019, and that from the next one a gradual growth would begin. And for Europe it is just starting. And in the US the recession (of varying degrees) could last until 2050.

There will be no growth for anyone, alas(( We will remember the present times as blessed... It will only get worse from now on, and I will explain why.

 
PS. Let some people not think that the "impending collapse" is propaganda. These are the opinions of major US and European investors and bankers. Another thing is that these opinions are very veiled, for they are not supposed to be.
 
QuantumBob:

I will start by outlining my model of a collapse rather than a crisis.

To begin with, let us abstract away from the small details and grasp the whole idea.

The cost of goods produced, in the state as a whole, is equal to the sum of wages + other production costs + the sum of all deductions to the state + the entrepreneur's profit. We will highlight the salaries, it is the main thing in the system, it is effective demand.

What are the contributions to the state? Salaries of officials, law enforcement agencies, pensioners, civil servants, etc. That is, salaries again. And if an official buys a company car? These are salaries to workers in car factories, metallurgists, plastics manufacturers, etc.

Whatever the financial flow, it consists of the sum of the salaries of its participants + free natural resources. We don't pay anything to the earth for water, air or ore.

So, the effective demand of the population is simply the sum of salaries and other payments to the population of the state. And this amount is entirely included in the cost of goods produced. Here we get to the meat of the matter: the economy in a closed-loop system as a whole is always unprofitable!!!


Based on the above logic, the economy is not unprofitable, but=0. There is no profit and no loss. The resources expended (man-hours) are fully converted into a commodity and, in fact, this commodity is paid for by those same man-hours, if we take away the money.

That is, the price of the product is made up solely of the time spent on it + some kind of surcharge and inflation of the cost of time. In the end the result is 0.

But that's the way it would be if there was no emission!!! Emission creates inflation and puts the economy in the black. More accurately, a "virtual plus" because it stays =0, but because of the time differential, we have growth.

 

Maxim Romanov:

Emission creates inflation and puts the economy in the black.

A mythical plus. Intelligently, it is the crisis that nullifies the whole so-called surplus.

 
Maxim Romanov:

Based on the above logic, the economy turns out not to be unprofitable, but=0. There is no profit and no loss. The resources expended (man-hours) are fully converted into a commodity and, in fact, this commodity is paid for by those same man-hours, if we remove the money.

That is, the price of the product is made up solely of the time spent on it + some kind of surcharge and inflation of the cost of time. In the end the result is zero.

But that's the way it would be if there was no emission!!! Emission creates inflation and puts the economy in the black. More accurately, a "virtual plus" because it stays =0, but because of the time differential, we have growth.

Yes, and the end of this model is near because it leads to an exponential increase in debt for all actors, from households to the state. The exponent is soft in the beginning, but then comes a rapid collapse. Find a graph of the exponent and look it up if you can't remember. Everything will become clear at once.
 
Konstantin Nikitin:

A mythical plus. In the right way, it is the crisis that nullifies the whole so-called "plus".

The crisis is not just zeroing in, it's taking a negative, relative to "zero".

 
Inflation is bad, but deflation would be fatal for the US.
 
Edgar:
Inflation is bad, but deflation would be fatal for the US.
Such debts will not be paid back under any circumstance. And deflation is worse than inflation, that's for sure))
1234567891011...22
New comment
Reason: