Why an economic crisis is inevitable. - page 3

New comment
 
Dmitry Fedoseev:

There is a contradiction between the goals and objectives of producers and consumers.

Producers need to sell, sell, sell. The consumer needs to buy once and forget, to relax for as long as possible.

As long as there is real technical progress, the consumer cannot get away with it. But when there isn't, the manufacturer creates an illusion, and any fog sooner or later dissipates.

Yes, they have it down to the last detail. They play on ego and vanity, and machinery breaks down just after the warranty period ends. But this contradiction is hardly a significant reason.
 

https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Циклы_Кондратьева

In 1922 a Soviet economist developed the theory of wave processors in economics. Predicted the Great Depression with accuracy of a couple of months, the crisis of 2000 with accuracy of several years. He was repressed after a few years for developing the NEP. Now studied in all the world's economics textbooks.

In general, economic processes are easy to study mathematically.

 
Edgar:
h ttps://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Циклы_Кондратьева
These are just empirical observations and nothing more. They don't explain anything.
 
QuantumBob:
They are just empirical observations and nothing more. They don't explain anything.

There are explanations in many studies. I have to dig around, it wasn't really relevant to me.

 
Maxim Romanov:

No, there won't be a collapse. There will be another crisis during which there will be a redistribution of funds/power/control. Some will leave and others will take their place. Some companies will go bankrupt, others will grow. No matter how strong the crisis is, everything will continue exactly as it was. And the pullback can be not only in the price of assets, the pullback can happen in population and it will happen one day. The structure does not change, only the scale does, and hunger is only a certain scale.

I, unfortunately, did not have fun. Either a change of economic and political formation or a global war.
 
Edgar:
h ttps://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Циклы_Кондратьева

that's what it's all about)) no one knows the answer... it's boring and not interesting, so we'll come up with some hypothesis and we'll be followed by followers)) That's how it works. Let's have Kondratieff cycles, let's write approximate time ranges... Well for beauty, not to look silly at all, veil the explanation of these ranges and go, for a Nobel Prize) But in fact no one knew, and did not learn, because it does not explain anything. The fundamental law is not revealed.

And as a powerful crisis happens (and all people are afraid to die) prosper those who say that after death they will go to heaven if they stick to the rules that are written here and bring money/other values here)).

 
QuantumBob:
I, unfortunately, did not have fun with it. Either a change of economic and political formation or a global war.

What is the calculation based on? I wonder. It will definitely happen sooner or later.

 
In simple terms, a booming economy ends in stagnation and recession. And so it goes round and round. Everything fits into standard cycles. If I remember correctly, the US only managed to skip a crisis once by flooding the economy with printed money. The next crisis will not be alleviated in this way.
 
Maxim Romanov:

What is the calculation based on? I wonder. It will definitely happen sooner or later.

Yeah I was just reeling from solvent demand, and when I started to get into it, I realised that a furball is absolutely inevitable. I'll write in my next post.
 

The coming crisis will be worse than the Great Depression and the 2008 crisis. And the whole world will not escape, because the whole economy is tied to the US.

Russia is one of the 2-3 countries with a budget surplus, no foreign debts, a large reserve fund and 70%-80% self-sufficiency (I am writing from memory). Maybe it will be easier to survive.

12345678910...22
New comment
Reason: