Regularity or Randomness - page 4

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Martin Cheguevara:

Everything goes in motion any price change has weight and does not happen by chance.


You recently wrote,"there are 98% random overlapping synergies in the market that are simply unrealistic to track and even more unrealistic to capitalise on..."

What information has influenced your opinion?

 
Martin Cheguevara:

forecast for today.

Nice picture.

Uh... Star Trek? Klingons attack?

 
apr73:

You recently wrote,"there are 98% random overlapping synergies in the market that are simply unrealistic to track and even more unrealistic to capitalise on..."

What information has influenced your opinion?

none i'm just an observer from the outside)

the falsity of my statements or not and how quickly you detect it is an indicator of how far you've come in understanding the market)

So watch yourself while you read my comments and analyze your thoughts)

And I'll be helping someone and confusing someone in that way)

 
Maxim Kuznetsov:

Nice picture.

Uh... Star Trek? Klingons are attacking?

roj yI'el maH!

 
Maxim Kuznetsov:

It's a beautiful picture.

Uh... Star Trek? Klingons attacking?

No, everything in the world is subject to the golden ratio.

Everything can be described by a simple formula.

but it has a twist. it's difficult for us to comprehend because it's beyond anything we've been exposed to since we were very young.

 
Martin Cheguevara:

I'm just an observer from the outside)

i'm just an outsider and an observer. the extent to which my statements are false or not and how quickly you detect them is an indicator of how far you've come in your understanding of the market)

So watch yourself while you read my comments and analyze your thoughts)

And I will help someone and confuse someone in that way)

Your statements are neutral for me.

That's what I do - observe myself and analyse my thoughts.

I am learning, so I ask questions, maybe they seem silly to someone.

 
apr73:

Your statements are neutral for me.

That's what I do - I observe myself and analyse my thoughts.

I am learning, so I ask questions, maybe they seem silly to some.

The main thing is to get results.
 
Martin Cheguevara:

Let's see who thinks what about it;)

  • Lawfulness
  • Randomness

  • Randomness is an unknowable Regularity! Consequently, the market must be described as a supercomplex mechanism, which cannot be directly and adequately analysed by the power of the human mind. To somewhat clarify the situation, let's choose a logically justified hypothesis and use the power of a computer to put forward and check the following global hypothesis: LAST BAR PRICE IS FORMED BECAUSE ALL HISTORICAL DATA ON THE PRICE OF THE INSTRUMENT AT EACH HISTORICAL BAR is taken into account. Naturally, no one is able to check this hypothesis in full and we are forced to limit ourselves to a finite amount of information in order to assess the situation. We will compensate our digression by introducing the concept C0 - accounting for the pressure of historical data on the price at the beginning of the analysis, assuming that the market has a memory. Let us consider the regularity of price formation at the moment of opening of the current C5 bar on the basis of considering C0, C1, C2, C3 and C4 as follows: C5 = C0 + a1C1 + a2C2 + a3C3 + a4C4.

The computer gives the following results as food for thought, after introducing the term "virtual price" Tsi virtual. = aiCi:

C1 actual. C2 actual. C3 actual. Ts4 actual. a4 a3 a2 a1 a0 C0 virtual history C1 virtual C2 virtual C3 virtual C4 virtual. Tcvirt. Ц5 actual.
1,1376 1,1377 1,1375 1,1361 -5,47987 1,130393 1,375359 -1,86337 6,630682 6,630681616 -2,11978 1,564746 1,285822 -6,22567 1,1358 1,1358
1,1377 1,1375 1,1361 1,1358 -2,71906 0,230769 0,635452 -0,85619 4,212794 4,212793788 -0,97408 0,722826 0,262177 -3,08831 1,1354 1,1354
1,1375 1,1361 1,1358 1,1354 0,558894 1,450721 2,385817 -0,8774 -2,85908 -2,85907782 -0,99805 2,710527 1,647729 0,634569 1,1357 1,1357
1,1361 1,1358 1,1354 1,1357 0,544521 -0,48973 1,681507 -1,88356 1,303482 1,30348176 -2,13991 1,909856 -0,55603 0,618412 1,1358 1,1358
1,1358 1,1354 1,1357 1,1358 0,949091 -0,72091 0,41 -3,09727 3,928728 3,928727516 -3,51788 0,465514 -0,81874 1,077977 1,1356 1,1356
1,1354 1,1357 1,1358 1,1356 0,422659 -0,76478 0,341063 -1,17329 2,470173 2,470172562 -1,33215 0,387345 -0,86864 0,479972 1,1367 1,1367
1,1357 1,1358 1,1356 1,1367 -0,47611 -0,67344 -0,37034 -0,90454 3,890866 3,890866234 -1,02728 -0,42063 -0,76476 -0,54119 1,137 1,137
1,1358 1,1356 1,1367 1,137 -0,27098 0,044748 -0,29526 -0,33741 2,111861 2,111861113 -0,38323 -0,3353 0,050865 -0,3081 1,1361 1,1361
1,1356 1,1367 1,137 1,1361 0,13082 0,10459 -0,48492 -0,23672 1,688584 1,688583774 -0,26882 -0,55121 0,118919 0,148624 1,1361 1,1361
1,1367 1,137 1,1361 1,1361 -1,33795 1,684211 -0,12465 -1,60388 2,707073 2,707073191 -1,82313 -0,14173 1,913432 -1,52005 1,1356 1,1356
1,137 1,1361 1,1361 1,1356 -0,77893 1,468912 -0,03022 -1,29793 1,861703 1,861702747 -1,47574 -0,03434 1,668831 -0,88455 1,1359 1,1359
1,1361 1,1361 1,1356 1,1359 -0,80639 1,512641 -0,01497 -1,28776 1,814349 1,814348847 -1,46302 -0,01701 1,717756 -0,91598 1,1361 1,1361
1,1361 1,1356 1,1359 1,1361 -0,91811 1,0341 0,772669 -1,07362 1,347132 1,347132039 -1,21974 0,877442 1,174634 -1,04306 1,1364 1,1364
1,1356 1,1359 1,1361 1,1364 0,213186 2,706449 2,317132 -6,4153 2,473228 2,473227751 -7,28522 2,63203 3,074796 0,242264 1,1371 1,1371
1,1359 1,1361 1,1364 1,1371 0,706774 3,271848 1,97262 -6,64346 1,920015 1,920015419 -7,54631 2,241094 3,718128 0,803672 1,1366 1,1366
1,1361 1,1364 1,1371 1,1366 0,422892 -0,60749 -1,77213 -3,23575 7,037907 7,037906837 -3,67614 -2,01385 -0,69078 0,480659 1,1378 1,1378
1,1364 1,1371 1,1366 1,1378 0,951666 -0,68857 0,496879 -0,41849 0,746793 0,746792813 -0,47557 0,565001 -0,78263 1,082806 1,1364 1,1364
1,1371 1,1366 1,1378 1,1364 -0,33053 0,632365 -0,40145 0,650772 0,50611 0,506109878 0,739993 -0,45629 0,719505 -0,37562 1,1337 1,1337
1,1366 1,1378 1,1364 1,1337 0,263446 0,36517 -0,29953 0,564473 0,118483 0,11848263 0,64158 -0,34081 0,414979 0,298669 1,1329 1,1329
1,1378 1,1364 1,1337 1,1329 0,17844 0,717824 -0,41706 0,595678 -0,08697 -0,08697102 0,677762 -0,47394 0,813797 0,202155 1,1328 1,1328
1,1364 1,1337 1,1329 1,1328 0,064553 0,922948 -1,10197 0,803673 0,34978 0,34977991 0,913295 -1,24931 1,045608 0,073126 1,1325 1,1325


It turns out that the market operates on the basis of a strict regularity, which no man is able to comprehend at the given stage of brain development and is perceived by him as a regularity, then as an absolute randomness. In short, the market cannot be understood by mind, which is proved by researchers' efforts and traders' persistence.

 
Yousufkhodja Sultonov:

It turns out that the market acts on the basis of a strict regularity, which no human being at the given stage of brain development is able to comprehend and, therefore, is perceived as a regularity or as an absolute randomness. In short, the mind cannot understand the market, which is proved by researchers' efforts and traders' persistence.

I support the hypothesis.

Moreover, you are right!

----

would you explain - what is in your table?

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

I support the hypothesis.

Not only that, you are right!

----

would you explain - what is in your table?

Let me explain the first line: At the beginning of the experiment, i.e. at the opening of the 1st bar, the pressure of virtual historical prices was +6.63 conventional price units, which the market has to compensate for in the future. The effort of the 1st bar manages to soften the historical shock a bit, by -2.12 units, but the 2nd and 3rd bars hit by 1.56 and 2.12 units, worsening the situation. It remains for the 4th bar to strike a decisive counter-strike of -6.23 virtual price units at once. to stabilise the market by the time the current 5th bar opens! It seemed to everyone that, the market "accidentally" went down! All lines of the table can be analyzed in the same way. Conclusion: The terminal shows us only the tip of a huge iceberg called the market, without hinting at the fact that this market is mostly virtual, and it shows its real part in the terminal, which is used by uninitiated people. Moreover, this process of market self-regulation goes on for every tick, minute, ....., month and years. To be fair, I have to admit that with this method of analysis I have not achieved any result that helps to profitably trade or predict the market. It just shows how complex the market mechanism is, that's all! The attempt to detect a pattern of price formation leads us to search for even more complex patterns, for example, a pattern of formation of C0 and ai, like a movement in a swamp. Although, logically, we can create and test the indicator, working by the following principle: if а4<1 and Ц04>0, then price tends to fall - SELL, otherwise - BAY. If anyone is ready to program and check this hypothesis, I'm ready to provide all calculations on Exel.

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