A pattern. - page 21
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But one way or another, you have to analyse the whole set of statistics, not just the charts of currency pairs.
Well, you are contradicting yourself - why analyse the news feed if it sometimes works, sometimes does not work and sometimes works exactly the opposite?
the news is designed to move the price, but the news do not decide which way the price will go, moreover they do not make accurate predictions.
PZS: And if you consider that there are futures and options, they have a price movement in advance, and until their terms expire, the news will not change the price in any way - alas, banks will not bear the losses, it is easier for them to meet their obligations under futures and options, than to react to the slightest "sneeze" of news, as a matter of fact, some news were formed for the money of these very banks ;)
The non-randomness of the pricing of financial instruments is only ensured by directional moves for unknown reasons, such moves are not guaranteed to "overlap" with subsequent price movements in less than 2% of cases. The reason for this is that there is too much competition in the market. In the long term, if trades are opened frequently (once or twice a day) the spread is likely to exceed the profit in 90% of cases. Strangely enough, the regularity can only be found out considering the absence of correlation between the bars. That is not a cumulative method, i.e. every bar is considered a separate process.
To prove that the price is random is not difficult at all, it is enough to know the basic principles of probability theory.
But to prove the contrary may take years, if at all possible, and the quantity and variety of methods for evaluating market prices tends to infinity, as well as the diversity of the random process itself).
brokers do not need to cheat at all. Why? People will do everything for them)
The only problem is if you do hit a powerful daily bar and put all your money in and quadrupled it. You can only get it from big brokers ... The only problem is that if you've struck a strong daily bar and you've invested all your money in one day and raised four times as much. they may "give it to you" only big brokers ... They trust their clients and value them very much. the rest will either make you trade until you give up and may even make you increase the risks, playing on your greed or just freeze the account.
It is not difficult to prove that the price is random at all, you just need to know the basics of probability theory.
The price is not random, the forex distribution does not correspond to the distribution of the coin from the theoretician.
...
the price is not random . the distribution on the fore is not the same as the distribution of the coin from the theorist.
What's interesting is that about the same number of forum participants will agree with you or with me))
The division of opinion on this forum is itself a random number generator)Which markets are you talking about? If only in currency markets, then patterns are poorly visible: all correlations are random and there are essentially no causes or effects, all exchange rates are the consequence of more fundamental causes. For example, many puzzled, why did the Euro grow against the USD at zero rate of ECB? And the reason was obvious: Europe ran a huge surplus against the U.S. Another pattern. If industry stagnates year after year and retail sales keep going up, it means that the banks are lending cheaply, inflating an unsecured money bubble that will burst, burying the stock market and the national currency. But one way or another you have to analyse the whole set of statistics, not just currency pair charts.
For a proper post, it would even be silly to argue. I agree by 100500.
If you want to say that only American businessmen behave this way, then it at least shows your bias. We have before our eyes plenty of examples of our native businessmen with beautiful noble family names: Vekselberg, Deripaska, Abramovich.
It might seem that you haven't noticed "Nothing has changed.And it's gradually piling up." It's not that important. What is important is where the money goes).
Well, you are contradicting yourself - why analyse the news feed if it sometimes works, sometimes does not work and sometimes works exactly the opposite?
That is what news is for, to move the price, and news does not decide in which direction the price will go, much less give an accurate prediction.
PZS: And if you consider that there are futures and options, they have a price movement, and until their terms expire, the news will not change the price - alas, banks will not incur losses, it is easier for them to meet their obligations under futures and options, than to react to the slightest "sneeze" of news, as by the way, some news were made for the money of these very banks ;)
I like the sneeze thing here though. That's exactly what we can profit from.
Well, that's right!
that's what I was talking about above.
you buy higher from the bank, at a better price for the bank not for you, and sell it cheaper
i wish i was wrong, but that's the way it is in forex most of the time
You don't have to say the price and make a deal at this price.
of course you can get the price you want but only if you are lucky, if the price is like that
or is it?
so at your expense liquidity is provided, you are at a loss, not the bankthen what is primary, the exchange or the interbank forex market?
i was comparing 2 charts, usdrub chart from forex and usdrub chart from the moscow exchange. so the exchange chart runs behind the forex chart.
can someone post a comparison of 2 charts, eurusd from forex and eurusd from the CME? to see which one lags.
The non-randomness of the pricing of financial instruments is only ensured by directional movements for unknown reasons....
Let's focus on this point.
Why unknown? Basically, events in the modern world, with the developed technology of information transfer, all become known in a fraction of a second or a minute it no longer plays a role.
Another question: why does the price change? Banks trade with each other? Maybe they are connected to the CME and watch quotes there.
Then what is primary, the stock exchange or the interbank FX.
i was comparing 2 charts, the usdrub chart from the forex and the usdrub chart from the moscow exchange. so the exchange chart is running behind the forex chart.
can someone post a comparison of the 2 charts, eurusd from forex and eurusd from the SME exchange? to see which one lags behind.
Do banks trade in order to sell currency to customers? - A long time ago I searched this forum and saw a statement that someone works in a firm that buys equipment for currency and they often order large amounts of currency from the bank, but the order has to be made a month in advance and then the bank will give the price at which the currency will be purchased... - i understand that the bank will also order and will probably hedge with futures?
ZS: it has been a long time since i looked at CME, i can`t remember, but CME seems to deal with futures and options? - am I wrong?
If there is an arbitrage situation, the market will instantly remove it. You and I sit here and dream of making money, while there are investment funds that hire quants who look for these situations for very serious fees.