Peak ruble in 2018! Yes ? or..... - page 4

 
Ptoferoz2010:
It seems to me that there will be a ruble collapse after the election. The West will start shouting about pattassing the results and stuff. Not a good sign for investors.

Strangely, I think it smells strongly of an irreversible drop in the evergreen. We are right around the bifurcation point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_PXnMZNeX0

 
This moaning about the collapse of the ruble, just like the collapse of the dollar, has been going on since the early 90s
 
There is no need to worry about the fate of the rouble until March 18. Then the risks may increase: rate revision on 23 March, possible introduction of new sanctions, falling oil prices...
 
Михаил Билан:
The US Congress will meet in February to discuss a proposed extension of restrictive measures, including a ban on US investors from investing in Russian government debt.
Bank of America experts have already warned that if Washington bans deals with Russian government debt, the ruble could go into a steep dive.

"New restrictions from the US that could affect government debt are one of the key risks for the Russian currency," Otkritie Broker analyst Andrey Kochetkov confirms.

Not familiar with Kochetkov. But the statement is serious. It will be a total akhtung. I think the consequences are obvious to all of us.
 
Ptoferoz2010:
It seems to me that there will be a ruble collapse after the election. The West will start shouting about pattassing the results and stuff. Not a good sign for investors.
It won't, 100%. The reason is that no one decides anything. Nothing depends on them, they are just pawns.
 
 

If wages rise, so will inflation, obviously... I think the rouble will now move towards 60, it is not clear what could be interesting about it... unless it's something completely unplanned.

https://www.rbc.ru/society/12/03/2018/5a9eba5c9a7947441367c8b7

Майские указы к выборам: почему у бюджетников резко выросли зарплаты
Майские указы к выборам: почему у бюджетников резко выросли зарплаты
  • www.rbc.ru
В целом ряде научных учреждений и больниц в последние три месяца значительно выросли зарплаты. Это связано с близкими президентскими выборами и необходимостью выполнения к ним майских указов, говорят эксперты
 
Sergey Vradiy:
The ruble is basically worthless. I think that should be clear to everyone. Tiny Singapore has 30% more exports than the whole of Russia including oil and gas. Do you need any more explanations? We have nothing to export, so the ruble hangs in the air. Demura predicts 125 rubles per dollar as early as this year. Has he ever been wrong, guys? If anyone is really a genius, it's Demura )))

Wave analysis is powerful. If you have, in addition to knowledge, the Gift of interpreting those same waves. And Demura has the gift.

Intrigue is brewing. Popcorn ....

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And he made a not so good forecast for the dollar in about ...t. years.

Savings in precious metals, in a coffer, and when sober, bury it to remember where it is buried ))).

 
Aleksey Vyazmikin:

... obviously... I think the ruble will now move towards 60...

There is an alternative view.

CIBC: рубль недооценен к доллару на 30%
CIBC: рубль недооценен к доллару на 30%
  • ProfinanceService, Inc
  • www.forexpf.ru
Инвестиционный менеджер CIBC Asset Management Люк Дюранте, под управлением которого находятся активы в размере $25 млрд, делает ставку на укрепление российского рубля, несмотря на международные санкции в отношении России и потенциал повышения ставок ФРС США.
 
Alexander Sevastyanov:

There is an alternative viewpoint.

There is always an alternative point of view. But, if they are increasing payments to public sector workers, where are they planning to take the money from?

Borrow more through bonds, of course, but then the interest rate cannot be lowered, which means we will have to raise the key rate soon....

Technically there should have been a breakout by now, if there isn't one anytime soon, then anyway we have to go up for a run-up, in case of a decline.

Reason: