From theory to practice - page 330
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Accurately identifying and predicting the difference is not clear? Explanation:
There is a lot of verbal manipulation. OK, let's not "define" and "predict".
The statement "the trend is over" is fully equivalent to the statement "there will be no further trend". That's all I meant to say.
Because if it turns out to be trending next, then you were wrong with your precisely calculated "trend is over".
A lot of verbal manipulation. OK, let's not "define" or "predict".
For if it continues to trend, then you were wrong with your precisely calculated "trend is over".
Yeah, that's a lot of letters :)
All my discussion with my colleagues above was about the fact that the forecast may not come true - that's my position.
And their position was - we can"calculate the end of a trend" with one pip accuracy, we can determine whether we are in a trend or in a flat.
The question was about accuracy!"Determine" = precisely, "predict" = not precisely.
How many deposits have been lost because people shouted "I know exactly", "the market should"! So I tried to add my 5 cents to the understanding that predictions may not come true.
And everyone decides for himself how to trade, and especially how to live. My job today is to be Cassandra -"the forecast may not come true" - it is normal, do not let the word calculation fool you.
Is that clear?
My whole discussion with my colleagues above was about the fact that the forecast may not come true - that is my position.
It's a sensible idea, of course. But there are really a lot of letters. One paragraph would have sufficed.
And I will not shoot at cats for a lemon)).
Dear Nikolay Demko andUladzimir Izerski, let's deal with simple Russian words: predict and calculate. Do you understand that this is not the same thing?
3 GBPUSD ended the week at 1.4000. But depending on the platform, the weekly Close ranges between 1.39951 and 1.40052, a spread of 10.1 classic pips. On the daily chart you can clearly see the beautiful UpTrend, which is already relatively old. Please calculate the exact endpoint of this trend, as well as the exact target for the correction, which will obviously start after the endpoint of the trend. In the case of a flat correction, please indicate that it will be flat and precisely calculate its bottom point.
Aboutthe UpTrend on the day, it is too early to say, it will be visible in the area of 1.37100-1.39400
On the hourly chart for the time being DwTrend. If Monday is flat, it will show whether there will be a continuation or a reversal.
It's certainly a sensible idea. But there are really a lot of letters. One paragraph would have sufficed.
And I won't shoot cats for a lemon.)
Good point Yuri, you know the value of a living creature!!!
I wouldn't shoot my cat either. Not even for a million bucks, not even for more. Even remembering that he has a very high chance of survival - 83.333%!
At the expense of a lot of letters, sorry, I was in the mood to write colorful, not stingy.
By the way about your TC did not write all - the forum glitched, lost a message.
To be continued ...
may be ;))
It is too early to talk about UpTrend on the day, it will be seen in the zone 1.37100-1.39400
DwTrend on the watch for now. If Monday is flat, it will show whether there will be a continuation or a reversal.
I see, we all know that. You are waiting for a break of the previous trending low... move into the range below... we'll see there. It's all clear! I intentionally omitted the DwTrend hourly, so as not to confuse anyone. Where it stopped on Friday cannot yet be said to be a breakdown of the daily Up. But even if GBP had gone lower on Friday, it might have been a false-break and again it cannot be 100% sure about the break-up. And that's the way it goes foreverooooooooooooooo.
The trader is a probability juggler.
But let's not forget that we are in the branch of a man who is about to bolt non entropy to an already Markovian process... And will find a way to calculate market conditions...
But if he had done it in this day, he would have "used his magic machine" and told us: GBPUSD will flat for a couple of days, then it will make a correction in the daily UpTrend till the level of specific_figure, and from there it will continue to grow, reaching the maximum of 17.04.18 till the new maximum of specific_figure.
Or at least just"tomorrow is a Monday flat in a range of so-and-so".
I've been slogging sonnets here today for Alexander_K2 to look at the problem from above, taking off over distributions, ratios, etc. That's it, or I'll start quoting Strugatsky...
All to bed!
The question was about accuracy!"define" = precisely, "predict" = not precisely.
It is clear from your eloquent texts that you are in the 95% category. All is lost, the market is not predictable, and the 5% are jerks and happen to be lucky.
It's been a fun day. Solut!!! Opened the champagne.
The branch is the envy of any article.
Still, I'd like to see the theory presented here in a modest article.The branch is the envy of any article.
Still, I'd like to see the theory presented here in a modest article.Still, it's a pity we didn't get to hear from the head of the transport department. (с)
By the way, I didn't write all about your TC - the forum glitched, lost the message.
To be continued...
may be ;))
It would be very interesting. Especially when you consider that I never published it).