From theory to practice - page 1707
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No, I'm just kidding)
I know very well what forex is, and that the only grail here is your own DTs.
But I have nothing against it. I myself sometimes go on a "grail sleepover" when some grail idea comes to mind... months of tests - the result is always the same, pms.
The ancient writings say: "Dip your hands in honey, that cash may stick to them".
This procedure should be done daily and the Grail will find you by itself.
The ancient scriptures say: "Dip your hands in honey so that cash will stick to them".
Do this daily and the Grail will find you.
Give you some honey?
If we call things by their proper names, the "big money" in forex is states interacting with each other in complex ways. I am not sure that we can get any insight into the logic of their actions, but clearly their goal is not to make price series stationary) Therefore, I do not particularly believe in methods associated with it (Wold decomposition, etc.). On the other hand, states like stability more than instability, so some consistency (at least temporarily) should be there. Hence, the idea of piecewise stationarity naturally arises. There is also an attempt at prognostication here, but it is expressed quite naively - "what is happening now will last for some time yet". Mathematically it can be expressed as some variant of the discontinuity detection problem and the one used here is simply the simplest and most obvious.
If we call things by their proper names, the 'forex' we are dealing with is a kind of penny 'betting on sports' and the currency exchange departments are retail.
Government movements we do not see here at all. That is, we directly sense the consequences, but the time scale, volumes, measurement methods, and levels of the pyramid are incomparable. We do not see any state movements.
For us, simple country boys, the "big volume" is the movement of about 100-500 (maybe more) standard contracts, what the banks/funds have missed or surplus, and what can be seen.
They do not fit all at once into the needle's eye of the exchange. And they will be spent slowly in portions and also returned (we have a zero sum game).
that was my personal IMHO and there is no need to argue
If we call things by their proper names, the 'forex' we are dealing with is a kind of penny 'betting on sports' and the foreign exchange departments of stock exchanges are retail.
Government movements we do not see here at all. That is, we directly sense the consequences, but the time scale, volumes, measurement methods, and levels of the pyramid are incomparable. We do not see any state movements.
For us, simple country boys, the "big volume" is the movement of about 100-500 (maybe more) standard contracts, what the banks/funds have missed or surplus, and what can be seen.
They do not fit all at once into the needle's eye of the exchange. And they will be spent slowly in portions and also returned (we have a zero sum game).
That was my personal IMHO and there's no need to argue.
You can see everything. Look at forward rates
Futures and options, firstly they are derivatives and secondly they are self-regulating mechanisms to keep the process from getting out of control.
that sounded a bit scary :-) how to explain it to the technicians... these are entrepremiums, not a way to cheat as it sounded before
Give you some honey?
We'll have to make a deal.
I'll probably be dipping my hands as well as my feet in it.
By the way, all kinds of indicators of disorder, entropy and so on only muddy the swamp and do not give any improvement
No, I still need some kind of breakdown indicator. Without it, today on all pairs with NZD, my TS would have lost the whole deposit.
No, some kind of decoupling indicator is a must. Without it, today on all pairs with NZD, my TS would simply lose the entire deposit.
I have one too, I hope))) I am a weak and emotionally driven human.
I have one too, I hope).
Otherwise emotions will make a separate person a member of the herd. And sometimes it is more profitable to disassociate oneself)))
If we call things by their proper names, the "forex" we are dealing with is a type of penny stock "sports betting" and the foreign exchange departments of the stock exchanges are retailers.
Government movements we do not see here at all. That is, we directly sense the consequences, but the time scale, volumes, measurement methods, and levels of the pyramid are incomparable. We do not see any state movements.
For us, simple country boys, the "big volume" is the movement of about 100-500 (maybe more) standard contracts, what the banks/funds have missed or surplus, and what can be seen.
They do not fit into the needle's eye of the exchange at once. And they will be spent slowly in portions and also returned (we have a zero sum game).
That was my personal IMHO and there is no need to argue
The differences between retail forex and forex are quite clear. It is also clear that no one will ever show us the "stack" of all forex as a whole (even if it suddenly exists somewhere). Nevertheless, thanks to arbitrageurs, prices in any "puddle" cannot be very different from prices in the "world ocean". Therefore, I don't see much point in separating retail forex from the all speculators segment. The other two segments are obviously states and those who use forex simply for exchange.
The actions of states seem quite obvious in some rare moments. For example, after the New York terrorist attack only the state could afford to be a market maker on the dollar buying side (perhaps indirectly).
The differences between retail forex and forex are quite clear. It is also clear that no one will ever show us the "stack" of all forex as a whole (even if it suddenly exists somewhere). Nevertheless, thanks to arbitrageurs, prices in any "puddle" cannot be very different from prices in the "world ocean". Therefore, I don't see much point in separating retail forex from the all speculators segment. The other two segments are obviously states and those who use forex simply for exchange.
The actions of states seem quite obvious in some rare moments. For example, after the New York terrorist attack only the state could afford to be a market maker on the dollar buying side (perhaps indirectly).
It is not states, but rather central banks which contribute to correcting against significant exchange rate movements.
Central banks act as news carriers from the states. They know the situation in advance and have options to mitigate the currency segment. Even measures have been taken.
The released news, on the other hand, is for the rest of the crowd, other states, corporations, banks, SPECULATORS...