[Archive] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 15: May 2012) - page 106
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
In March, on a wave of dollar strength and euro depreciation, Mobilich vowed to predict an exchange rate of 1.2 by 1 April. At the same time he suggested
offered to make a bet on 1 WMZ. Placing such a large option around 1.2 caused the bx to weaken and rise to 1.34. The action taken by Fed only increased the volatility. At the moment the bid of 1 WMZ is removed and this caused a continuation of the drop to 1.2, where we will be in a while.
But the first to call this figure was mobilych, which will make him famous in the end. Let's go to 1.2.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
In March, on the wave of strengthening dollar and declining euro, Mobilych vowed to predict the exchange rate of 1.2 by April 1. At the same time, he suggested.
1 WMZ bet. Placing such a large option around 1.2 caused the quid to weaken and rise to 1.34 . The measures taken by the Fed only increased the volatility. Currently, the bid at 1 WMZ is off, which caused a continuation of the decline towards 1.2, where we will be in a while.
But it was mobilych who was the first to name the figure, which will glorify him in the end. Let's go for 1.2.
On the daily chart a pullback is brewing, although Wolf can be seen.... if it goes like this (on the green arrow) and down, then Wolf will remain in force at 1.20000
There are 3 crows coming up in the week.
We'll decide before lunch, then let's fly......................
On the daily chart a pullback is brewing, although Wolf can be seen.... if it goes like this (on the green arrow) and down, then Wolf will remain in force at 1.20000
There are 3 crows coming up in the week.
only the third is unsure
We'll decide before lunch, then let's fly......................
Where do crows go? They are free birds - wherever I want, that's where I fly)))
wherever they shine..... they're greedy and hungry :)
I wonder how much longer the eu will fall without a pullback? Unfortunate situation - I've made a few purchases, already a quarter of the depo is in a drawdown.
it all depends on German GDP :)
WHERE DOES IT STOP?
I think in America :)
To continue the theme of indicator preference, market makers who don't look at indicators (or volumes either), and central banks who don't care about market makers, you and me, or indicators. Don't they. Let's say that the fall in the Euro was seriously driven not by supply or demand, not by Greece or payrolls, but by sales of fresh tranches of US bonds. And so the Treasury issues bonds and the Fed buys dollars to - to put it bluntly and mildly - sell those bonds at a higher price. It is a commodity that they create out of paper. Hence the question - are market makers notified of this? I suppose they can notify the NY Fed primary dealers. You yourself should understand that not everything that goes on behind the scenes at the Fed is voiced even to the primary dealers. Among the primary there are always the most primary, under Bush it was Goldman Sachs and who now I honestly don't know. Some know more, some know less. Those who know almost everything about the dollar, like Bernanke or Geithner, are genuinely amused when they are told about it by those who know less. Further, traders who work for market makers, whether on the floor or virtually, know exactly what the Fed is or is not doing, or at the level of 90% of assumptions, rumors, signs that are beyond our reach. We can only guess, which is vain. What do you think, I haven't tried buying the dollar knowing the day before that they will be issuing a hundred yards of treasuries next week? I have tried. And the dollar mockingly fell like a stone. Those who trade in the big banks know more, they have access to classified information, including volumes, they have expensive sources of information and accurate price terminals like the EBS. We have nothing but animal instinct, which is based on price, on indicators or volumes, on the ability to understand data and understand how important it is, blah, blah, blah. We have nothing but flair. Let it be based on past loy, and let it be based on the line, although I agree - that's bullshit. The eura broke all the lines a long time ago, the eura has become an even more false girl than the euro-yen. The euro yen is traded by who? I don't even look at the yen yet, let alone the euro yen. But I repeat - the main cheater is the eura. And it remains very liquid and there is very high demand for it. Not today. Not yesterday. Not these two weeks. Not at all. And if it's at all, what are you - hard to put up with for a couple of weeks? Where will she go...