[Branch closed!] EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 4) - page 262

 
2011.06.15 21:10:06 *Equity, oil and euro prices fall amid fears of Greek debt problems spreading
 
Tantrik:
So look what the sult. indicator shows (screenshot please) (1.4145 - reversal - temporary or permanent I don't know)

In a neighbouring thread they posted the Sultonov indicator on the MT screen




I have not seen it yet.



 

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has expressed his willingness to resign if he and New Democracy opposition Conservative Party leader Antonis Samaras come to a consensus on the goals and objectives of a new "national unity" government.

Papandreou made the statement after talks between the two leaders today, Reuters reported citing a source in the country's power circles.

The statement was made against the background of another nationwide strike against cuts in public spending, which is the main issue on the economic agenda of the country which is on the brink of default and the subject of harsh criticism by its people.

Earlier, the cabinet approved a programme of austerity measures for 2011-2015 and submitted the relevant bill to parliament. The proposed austerity programme amounts to 28.4 billion euros and aims to bring the budget deficit to less than 1 percent of GDP by 2015.

В 2010г. Greece was on the verge of default due to its inability to pay the government's debts. Eurozone countries and the IMF provided Athens with 110 billion euros in financial aid. In return, the socialist government of Greece undertook and began to implement a programme of significant budget cuts (the so-called austerity measures). This included freezing pensions, cutting salaries, raising the retirement age and cutting staff in public institutions.

 
sezon:

Look at the NQ 100 index - down since 01.06 ... 1,437 points already.

Something interesting is coming... maybe a new crisis is coming for the americans?


I don't think there's a crisis, but there will be.

 

China has built up its US government bond holdings for the first time this year

Net capital inflows into the US in April slowed to almost half of those in March to $68.2bn, the country's Treasury Department said today. A month earlier the figure stood at $127.1bn.

In the month under review, China, the largest holder of treasuries in the US Treasury, increased its stake in the securities for the first time since the beginning of the year. The Middle Kingdom now holds $1 trillion 152 billion worth of U.S. debt (+7.6 billion). (+7.6 billion). Its longtime ally, Great Britain, was no less active in buying U.S. government bonds, increasing its stake to $333 billion (+7.8 billion). (+7.8bn).

At the same time, Japan, the second largest holder of treasuries, reduced its holdings by $1bn to $906.9bn. - to $906.9 billion.

As for Russia, the eighth largest holder of US government bonds, it decided not to change the trend and reduced its holdings once again. This time, Russian holdings decreased by $2.4bn to $125.4bn. - The Russian reserves fell to $125.4bn.

 

Eurozone finance ministers are still unable to agree on a new bailout programme for Greece. Many believe that a clear plan will only emerge and be approved at the very last minute before 20 June.

The stumbling block is the question of the role of private holders of Greek bonds in the new funding phase of the country.

Commerzbank believes that when a solution is found, it will give the euro a boost. In Deutsche Bank's view, on the other hand, the euro will not be able to move up significantly. Specialists recommend to sell EUR/USD when the pair rises above $1.45. Analysts of the bank think that in time the approach of the European Central Bank, which is trying to reduce the risk of Greek default, will prevail. However, so far European countries have made little progress in this direction. The largest currency hedge fund, FX Concepts, has been very radical, saying that the concept of a single currency has cracked and that Greece will never be able to pay off all of its debts.

 
Tantrik:
So see what the sult. indicator shows (please take a screenshot) (1.4145 - reversal - temporary or permanent I don't know)

imho, that's the only way:

http://imglink.ru/pictures/15-06-11/3b455e675ba5dc82e58d6b62ebff0ea9.jpg

http://imglink.ru/pictures/15-06-11/ac8afbf85e1371fadeb70b75a392ad8b.jpg

http://imglink.ru/pictures/15-06-11/729ec51e3377f4ecc3efb87a6388958f.jpg

 
The single currency climbed from Monday's low in the 1.4300 area but failed to move above 1.4500 and returned to levels below 1.4400.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe the euro is moving down towards support in the 1.4010/1.3968 area. In their view, the EUR/USD trend has become neutral/downtrending after the euro failed to overcome the 78.6% Fibonacci recovery at 1.4732 last week.

According to the bank, resistance for the pair is at 1.4540/65, 1.4732 and the May high at 1.4940.
 
Controversy in the eurozone continues to have a negative impact on investors' willingness to buy risky assets. Eurozone finance ministers failed to agree today on the key question of how private holders of Greek government debt should share in the new bailout programme. Opinions were divided between Germany and the Netherlands and the ECB and France. The former want Greek bondholders to swap old bonds for new ones that have a 7-year maturity, while the latter are in favour of a more lenient option. The fact is that the delay in deciding on such an important issue is pushing the possibility of a solution to the Greek crisis further and further away.
Eurozone debt problems, weak US economic growth coupled with the end of quantitative easing and slowing growth in China continue to be key constraints on investor activity in financial markets. Against this backdrop, a serious recovery in the currency market can hardly be expected. The single currency continues to react acutely to changes in investor sentiment on risk. In this regard we can assume that forex market dynamics will remain uncertain and dollar depreciation against major currencies will be replaced by local currency appreciation.
Investors will still react nervously to economic statistics and news on bailout measures for the Greek economy. Positive statistics from USA will boost risk appetite only temporarily, which will be replaced by negative sentiment.
Overall, we can say that the market will continue to see a sawtooth movement of assets.
 
IgorM:

imho, that's the only way:

https://www.mql4.com/go?http://imglink.ru/pictures/15-06-11/3b455e675ba5dc82e58d6b62ebff0ea9.jpg

https://www.mql4.com/go?http://imglink.ru/pictures/15-06-11/ac8afbf85e1371fadeb70b75a392ad8b.jpg

https://www.mql4.com/go?http://imglink.ru/pictures/15-06-11/729ec51e3377f4ecc3efb87a6388958f.jpg


H4 no
Reason: